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The Problem

by Mars · 2/25/2010

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M
Mars


Zone defense is SDSU's kryptonite. It won't stop New Mexico.



The Lobos are great shooters (guys like Gary). They are deadly from 3-point range. But if we go Man against them, they are bigger, taller, and stronger than us inside in the post (including great rebounding), and are able to eat us alive (like Hobson).



I don't know that there's a clear-cut way to stop UNM from scoring. How do you scheme against them? They are just too good, too balanced, in almost all facets of the game. We can beat them, but I don't see any way we can get a comfortable lead on them or beat them by much like we did the Aztecs.



Here's to a close victory. Fingers crossed.
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Wolverine
My thought is take a page or two from AFA's and CSU's game plan since they seemed to be able to keep the Lobos in check as of late ;) I predict a win similar to last night's win. GO COUGARS!!!
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northerncougar
The problem as I see it is that we will win on Saturday but lose to the pukes next Wednesday. After a 7 pt win against UNM, we will have the pressure of an outright conference championship, against our rivals on the road. We will play tight and they will be loose, and we will lose that game.



I see us ending the season in a tie for first with UNM.
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SpiffCoug
I'm not sure UNM is "deadly" from 3-point range. They shoot .377 which is decent but not great. UNM is just a very solid team all they way around. I don't think they do anything extremely well. They just do almost everything better than most teams. They're an above average team in most areas - except FTs.



Here's a conf only stat comparison ranking of UNM and BYU, with conf rank in ().

Scoring Off: (1) BYU 80.1; (2) UNM 72.9

Scoring Def: (3) BYU 64.8; (4) UNM 65.4

Scoring Margin: (1) BYU +15.3; (3) UNM 7.4

FT Pct: (1) BYU .768; (4) UNM .687

FG Pct: (3) BYU .451; (5) UNM .422

FG Def: (2) BYU .407; (5) UNM .420

3pt Pct: (1) BYU .410; (3) UNM .365

3pt Def: (2) BYU .325; (3) UNM .344

Reb: (1) UNM 39.6; (2) BYU 38.9

Off Reb: (1) UNM 13.7; (3) BYU 10.8

Def Reb: (1) BYU 28.1; (2) UNM 25.9

Reb Margin: (1) UNM +7.4; (3) BYU +4.4

Blocks: (3) BYU 50; (6) UNM 45

Assist: (2) BYU 14.9; (4) UNM 13.7

Steals: (1) BYU 7.9; (5) UNM 6.4

TO Margin: (1) BYU +4.08; (3) UNM +1.71

Ast/TO: (1) BYU 1.5:1; (3) UNM 1.2:1



If you assign point totals to those rankings (lower number being better) you come up with the following score:

BYU 31

UNM 55



BYU has the advantage in 14 of the 17 categories. BYU leads the conference eight of them. UNM just three.



What I see in these numbers is one team that is very good and one team that is slightly above average. UNM has gotten and made a lot of breaks. They've taken full advantage of opportunites placed before them. It's why they're 12-2 in conference. BYU hasn't made those breaks because they haven't need them. They've had all of two close conference wins. New Mexico has had six.



Statistically BYU is the better team. On paper BYU is the better - although UNM may have a better resume. The game is going to be very tough, but I think BYU wins it in similar fashion to last night. Close in the first half, BYU makes a run and then slowly pulls away.
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SpiffCoug
northerncougar wrote:
The problem as I see it is that we will win on Saturday but lose to the pukes next Wednesday. After a 7 pt win against UNM, we will have the pressure of an outright conference championship, against our rivals on the road. We will play tight and they will be loose, and we will lose that game.



I see us ending the season in a tie for first with UNM.

I don't get all the hand wrining about Utah. They're NOT a good team. BYU only loses to good teams.



The Utes don't shoot well. They don't rebound particularly well. They turn the ball over. They don't play well at home. I don't see anything they do that scares me one iota.
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C
CougarClaw
The Utes do slap-you-in-da-face pretty well.



They might even be leading the conference.
B
BYULV
They (Utah) also lead the league in at suckiness, classlessness and sacklessness
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Gunk
Mars wrote:


Zone defense is SDSU's kryptonite. It won't stop New Mexico.



The Lobos are great shooters (guys like Gary). They are deadly from 3-point range. But if we go Man against them, they are bigger, taller, and stronger than us inside in the post (including great rebounding), and are able to eat us alive (like Hobson).



I don't know that there's a clear-cut way to stop UNM from scoring. How do you scheme against them? They are just too good, too balanced, in almost all facets of the game. We can beat them, but I don't see any way we can get a comfortable lead on them or beat them by much like we did the Aztecs.



Here's to a close victory. Fingers crossed.


Start with the zone and switch it up a bit to keep UNM off balance. If we go man and try to match up against them in the paint too much we'll just rack up the fouls and find our big men in trouble. Guards will need to be quick on the perimeter and rotate over quick. If Rose keeps subing fresh legs in and Jimmer doesn't get lazy on D, we should be fine. We've got the horses. Also, as long as every BYU player streaks to the basket every time UNM puts up a shot, we should out rebound them. We started doing this in the 2nd half against UNM and rebounded much better.



If CSU can take UNM down to the wire, there's no reason why we can't stick it to UNM.



I only saw the 2nd half of yesterday's game, but I didn't get the sense our guys were getting too tired out there. Looked like with about 6 min left in the game SDSU just threw their hands up in the air and BYU was able to coast. That's good because UNM has an extra day to rest their legs before Sat.
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bigbluepuma
northerncougar wrote:
The problem as I see it is that we will win on Saturday but lose to the pukes next Wednesday. After a 7 pt win against UNM, we will have the pressure of an outright conference championship, against our rivals on the road. We will play tight and they will be loose, and we will lose that game.



I see us ending the season in a tie for first with UNM.


I don't. That mid-conference let down WAS their let down. This team has something to prove (that they are different than the last seven). I expedt them to win out and win multiple games at the dance.



Ahem. You heard it here fifth. :crazy: 8) 8)
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craigoscarson
If we play the game in the Pit, instead at the MC, we win. They get a couple less calls, miss a couple shots, a couple free throws, whatever... We led with 2 minutes left regardless.



They squeaked out the W at a packed house in their house of pain; I don't see how they do the same in the MC unless we have a half like we did against UNLV.



I expect the house to rock like it did for Wake last year; the team to come out pumped and ready, and someone (other than Jimmer) steps up and has a career game (dont' be surprised if JT drops 20+)- they're going to spend so much energy trying to stop Jimmer in the 1st half, that we're going to get open shots from someone.



Chris Miles and Brandon Davies had their worst games of their careers vs UNM (Davies had 4 fouls in 6 minutes played); Jackson Emery was 1-7 from 3 and shoots better on the road for the most part (he's had a couple other 1fer games)



UNM shoots sub .640 free throws on the road, sub .420 fg % on the road, and averages 21 fouls a game on the road.



In contrast, BYU shoots .800 ft % at home, nearly .500 fg and below 16 fouls a game at home



I think the wild card is offensive rebounds. If we rebound well, we win going away. If we don't, it could be very tight.



We have every reason to be optimistic about this game. UNM is very good, but they're playing poorly now and we're playing at the MC, currently rolling.
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I
Iceman
bigbluepuma wrote:
The problem as I see it is that we will win on Saturday but lose to the pukes next Wednesday. After a 7 pt win against UNM, we will have the pressure of an outright conference championship, against our rivals on the road. We will play tight and they will be loose, and we will lose that game.



I see us ending the season in a tie for first with UNM.


I don't. That mid-conference let down WAS their let down. This team has something to prove (that they are different than the last seven). I expedt them to win out and win multiple games at the dance.



Ahem. You heard it here fifth. :crazy: 8) 8)


Yeah, what he said! Always willing to ride a good bandwagon! :lol: :lol: :lol: 8) 8) 8)
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northerncougar
I hope ya'll are correct about Utah. What I remember against Utah at home was a 4 pt game with a few minutes to go until Jimmer took over.



We are the better team, that isn't in question, but should have beaten them by 30 at home and we couldn't put them away until the end. I see the game in SLC even closer.
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craigoscarson
This game saturday is also the last home game for Chris Miles and JT... and a very small chance that it's JImmers last too...



I just don't see UNM playing well enough to ruin the night for us.



I can't even remember the last time we lost on senior night.
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bigbluepuma
northerncougar wrote:
I hope ya'll are correct about Utah. What I remember against Utah at home was a 4 pt game with a few minutes to go until Jimmer took over.



We are the better team, that isn't in question, but should have beaten them by 30 at home and we couldn't put them away until the end. I see the game in SLC even closer.




I expect :utard: to give us all they've got again and stay with us for quite a while, but the guys know how tough :utard: was last time, and that this one is @ the Huntsman. I think they come ready to play. If they do, there is nowhere that :utard: is good enough to prevail. :love: 8)
L
Lawboy
I think BYU tries to come out fast and jump on them early. I expect the MC to be LOUD, but who knows. It needs to be is all I know, so if the Student Section represents, it will make it tough on UNM. But a solid early start is crucial. get the crowd going, the mojo, then do not let up. When UNM went to Vegas, they were able to play with them early, unlike us. So they showed they can do it in a tough environment away from The Pit. BYU neds a fast start. Always easier to dictate the game from the lead, especially at home.
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Mars
Gunk wrote:
Start with the zone and switch it up a bit to keep UNM off balance. If we go man and try to match up against them in the paint too much we'll just rack up the fouls and find our big men in trouble. Guards will need to be quick on the perimeter and rotate over quick. If Rose keeps subing fresh legs in and Jimmer doesn't get lazy on D, we should be fine. We've got the horses. Also, as long as every BYU player streaks to the basket every time UNM puts up a shot, we should out rebound them. We started doing this in the 2nd half against UNM and rebounded much better.

Does Rose ever start in the zone? Even against SDSU he started in man-to-man. It seems like it's always his goal to go as long as possible before switching to zone.



Of course, in the loss at UNLV I don't think BYU played zone at all.
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Mars
kitic77 wrote:
I'm not sure UNM is "deadly" from 3-point range. They shoot .377 which is decent but not great. UNM is just a very solid team all they way around. I don't think they do anything extremely well. They just do almost everything better than most teams.

Good stats. But the stat that scares me is how much better the Lobos play against the great teams. They are 5-0 against teams that are ranked at the time they played them this season- including a 10-point win at UNLV.
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