Sorry guys, we won't be seeing UNLV as a 4 seed. They're as close to a guaranteed 3-seed as you can be. Here's why. They are currently tied with SDSU at 9-5. Both of those teams are ending with VERY winnable games. Both play at Air Force, UNLV hosts Wyoming, and SDSU hosts Colorado State. Barring a collosal collapse, both will end at 11-5. As they're 1-1 against each other, the tiebreaker goes to their record against the 1 seed. If that's BYU, UNLV owns the tiebreaker, as SDSU went o-fer against BYU. If the 1 seed is UNM, they'd be even on the 1st tiebreaker, as they were both 1-1 against UNM. The next tiebreaker would be the 2 seed, which is BYU, so they'll get the same result as above.
Now, obviously, if UNLV loses the gimmee either at Air Force or vs. Wyoming, they'd drop below SDSU for the 4-seed, but stay comfortably ahead of either Utah or CSU.
As UNM only has 2 games left, they literally couldn't fall to the same record as Vegas and San Diego.
So there are only 2 other OBSCURE possibilities that would wrench either of those teams out of the 3- and 4- seeds.
A- BYU, with 3 games left, technically could, by losing all 3. RIIIIIIGHT. For those interested, that would put BYU at the 4-seed (as they'd have lost to UNM 2x, where LV and SDS split with NM).
B- Either Vegas or SDSU loses BOTH gimmees, and Utah or CSU wins out. Yeah. Not gonna happen either.
So the way I see it, this is shaping up to be the worst of all scenarios seeding-wise for us. Here's why I think so:
If we beat UNM on Saturday and TCU next Saturday (gimmee), we're the #1 seed regardless whether we beat Utah or not. That's because even though a Utah loss would tie us with UNM at 13-3, we'd hold the tiebreaker, as we beat SDSU twice, and UNM didn't.
Obviously, if NM beats us on Saturday, we're a guaranteed 2-seed. But none of us even want to think about a loss Saturday.
So ASSUMING we win on Saturday, that pretty much cements the 1-4 seeds in place.
Then, again ASSUMING the 1-4 advance, BYU plays SDSU, and New Mexico plays UNLV. Ugh. I also would rather play UNM or UNLV in the 2nd round than the Championship, but for a much different reason than I've read yet.
It's VERY hard to beat a team 3 times in a season. Look at last year. We couldn't do it against San Diego State. Shoot, we almost lost against freaking AIR FORCE!!! I would consider a 2nd round matchup against San Diego State MUCH more perilous than EITHER New Mexico or UNLV, even in Vegas' livingroom. This is a team that can beat UNLV in their own invitational. I really believe that.
Unfortunately, not only is SDSU the most dangerous of the 3 imho (in that particular situation, mind, not necessarily overall), but we get the least credit for beating them of the three. We'd obviously root for UNM to beat UNLV in the other semi-, but I could see UNLV coming out STRONG against the Lobos, to atone for their home loss against them earlier in the season. A Rebel win would not only make the championship game more perilous (I think we can all agree that UNM would actually be a more manageable title game that UNLV), but again, we'd get less credit for it.
Bottom line, even IF we beat UNM Saturday, if we don't play UNM on a neutral floor AFTER the regular season, whether or not we place better than them in the tourney, I'm just betting we'll see the selection committee screw BYU out of the spot in the West and give it to UNM. They'll then give some LAMO excuses about how much more impressive UNM's win over loser Cal was than BYU's absolute DRUBBING of equal loser Arizona, and 5 wins over ranked teams. Riiiiiight. They'll neglet to mention, though, that only two of those are currently ranked, that one of those teams (BYU) got the last laugh, and the other (aTm) was a win in the Pit, where BYU's 2nd top-25 win was over a similarly-ranked opponent (UTEP), happened ON THE ROAD, and without our star player, you know, the one who dropped an L-bill on Arizona AT Arizona a week earlier. Have I missed anything?
:sulk:
So yeah, what I'm seeing is even IF we win out, the tourney is toughest-road, least-credit-for-it.
