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A Reality Check for the Realists

by Mars · 2/19/2010

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M
Mars


Losses from teams ahead of BYU in the RPI to sub-30 RPI Teams:

#2 Duke- To #129 N.C. State

#3 Kentucky- To #76 South Carolina

#5 West Virginia- To #77 Notre Dame

#6 Villanova- To #48 UConn

#7 Kansas State- To #49 Mississippi

#7 Kansas State- To #38 Missouri

#7 Kansas State- To #32 Oklahoma State

#8 Georgetown- To #41 Old Dominion

#8 Georgetown- To #62 Marquette

#8 Georgetown- To #56 South Florida

#8 Georgetown- To #104 Rutgers

#9 Purdue- To #42 Ohio State

#9 Purdue- To #90 Northwestern

#10 New Mexico- To #139 Oral Roberts

#10 New Mexico- To #39 SDSU

#10 New Mexico- To #44 UNLV

#11 Baylor- To #92 Alabama

#11 Baylor- To #133 Colorado

#12 Temple- To #78 St. John's

#12 Temple- To #51 Charlotte

#13 Pitt- To #208 Indiana

#13 Pitt- To #54 Seton Hall

#13 Pitt- To #56 South Florida

#14 Wake Forest- To #44 William and Mary

#14 Wake Forest- To #85 Miami

#14 Wake Forest- To #47 Virginia Tech

#15 Wisconsin- To #100 Wisconsin-Green Bay

#15 Wisconsin- To #42 Ohio State

#15 Wisconsin- To #71 Illinois

#16 Vanderbilt- To #50 Cincy

#16 Vanderbilt- To #71 Illinois

#16 Vanderbilt- To #172 Western Kentucky

#16 Vanderbilt- To #91 Georgia

#17 Texas A&M- To #52 Washington

#17 Texas A&M- To #32 Oklahoma State

#18 Gonzaga- To #207 San Fran



By comparison, BYU's worst loss is to #44 UNLV.



#19 BYU has 2 losses to teams between 30 and 50 in the RPI. #7 Kansas State has 3 worse than 30. #8 Georgetown has 4.



The 18 teams ahead of BYU in the RPI combine for 27 losses WORSE than BYU's worst loss...
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BroncoBot
HA HA. I'm so sick of hearing this argument. If it makes you feel better keep comparing. The real issue isn't the losses BYU has this year, just the way they lost at UNLV (lack of effort for first 10 minutes) I'm off to make a poll.
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Schmoe
I didn't realize that the lack of effort was responsible for UNLV having their best shooting night beyond the arc for the entire season. I really had no idea that our lack of effort contributes to opponents jumpshooting percentage.
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BroncoBot
Schmoe wrote:
I didn't realize that the lack of effort was responsible for UNLV having their best shooting night beyond the arc for the entire season. I really had no idea that our lack of effort contributes to opponents jumpshooting percentage.

Let me ask you something Schmoe, would lack of intensity/mentally not being ready for a game possibly lead to an opponent scoring an unusually large amount of point in lacrosse?
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Mars
declocoug wrote:
HA HA. I'm so sick of hearing this argument. If it makes you feel better keep comparing.

Yeah, I hate it when solid logic destroys a terrible emotional rant.
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Schmoe
Hmmm...let me ask you, declo, do basketball players sometimes play much better than usual, like hitting LONG shots that count for three points more often than they usually do?
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BroncoBot
Schmoe wrote:
Hmmm...let me ask you, declo, do basketball players sometimes play much better than usual, like hitting LONG shots that count for three points more often than they usually do?

Absolutely. It's easy when the defense gives you open looks every time down the floor cause they didn't come ready to play.



I wasn't trying to get in your face. Just pointing out that the offense usually has to work a lot harder for the types of shots UNLV was getting.
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Schmoe
I disagree, I watched the game and thought the Cougs played D pretty much as well as they have the rest of the season. I wasn't trying to get in your face, either, just pointing out that your deduction was full of holes and there are many reasons a team could score a lot of points and make nine of their first ten threes (or whatever it was).
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snoscythe
declocoug wrote:
Hmmm...let me ask you, declo, do basketball players sometimes play much better than usual, like hitting LONG shots that count for three points more often than they usually do?

Absolutely. It's easy when the defense gives you open looks every time down the floor cause they didn't come ready to play.


No, BYU didn't give them open shots because they weren't ready to play. They gave them open shots because UNLV is the second-worst 3-pt shooting team in the conference (#240 out of 334 teams in the country), so they played soft on the perimeter, figuring the percentages had to work out eventually on a team that shoots 30% from distance.



When a team shoots 30% from range, but kills teams inside, where do you focus your defense?
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BroncoBot
snoscythe wrote:
Schmoe wrote:
Hmmm...let me ask you, declo, do basketball players sometimes play much better than usual, like hitting LONG shots that count for three points more often than they usually do?

Absolutely. It's easy when the defense gives you open looks every time down the floor cause they didn't come ready to play.


No, BYU didn't give them open shots because they weren't ready to play. They gave them open shots because UNLV is the second-worst 3-pt shooting team in the conference, so they played soft on the perimeter, figuring the percentages had to work out eventually on a team that shoots 30% from distance.



When a team shoots 30% from range, but kills teams inside, where do you focus your defense?

Good point. And I realize that UNLV shot lights out that night. But isn't there a point where you finally scrap defending the paint and play some mean perimeter defense? Neutralize what is working until you get those sky high shooting percentages under control. When a team is rolling like that about everything starts going in.
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mizzoucoug
Who are the realists you are trying to show up? I know a few people, myself included, have noted the weaknesses of BYU throughout the season but not in attempt to say they're no good or can't win a big game. Every team loses in college basketball. I don't see how showing losses by teams ahead of us changes BYU's weaknesses, which is the only issue worth discussing IMO. All of this who lost to who doesn't mean jack. I also pull for Mizzou; they lost to some sorry teams this year then got up for UT last night. Happens all the time. Does it really mean anything at this point? Only for resume purposes.



I am just glad that BYU is winning road games with authority this year--that is one of the most under-noted difference in this team. They were rattled emotionally at UNLV but that's it so far. Most seasons we see that kind of shakiness 5-6 times/year. I'll take it.
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Mars
mizzoucoug wrote:
Who are the realists you are trying to show up? I know a few people, myself included, have noted the weaknesses of BYU throughout the season but not in attempt to say they're no good or can't win a big game. Every team loses in college basketball.

That's exactly the point. Declo was acting like BYU losing a road game in front of a sold-out crowd to a very good, likely NCAA Tourny team was embarrassing enough to scrap the season over. Which is straight up ig'nant, dog.



BYU has an RPI of 19 today. Sagarin- 9. Pomeroy- 7. I don't get the whining and hand-wringing like this is some terrible season. It just might be the best we'll see BYU do in a 30 year period, so enjoy it while it lasts.
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Gunk
Geeez...we're still talking about this.



As mentioned before, in defense of the realists, we looked at the UNLV as a barometer to whether this team is indeed different from all the one-and-done teams we've had (7 to exact over the last 17 years).



UNLV came out hot. BYU came out flat and once again we lost at UNLV. Yes, UNLV shot lights out, which BYU couldn't "control" but BYU also shot horribly the first 10 min. Haws, Jimmer and Emery all rushed shots and took bad ones. Not to mention coughing up the ball just about every other possession too. If I recall correctly by the half BYU was only a turnover or two away from their regular game average. That's something BYU could have controlled. Between turnovers and missed shots (elements BYU can control) UNLV got a lot more looks at the basket. If we'd taken care of the ball UNLV wouldn't have gotten as many shots as they did and BYU certainly wouldn't have gotten down by 20.



On defense, we choked in the first 10 min. Yes, the game plan was probably to force UNLV to stay on the outside (just a bout every team's defensive strategy), but if your man is dropping three pointers you start guarding him out on the three. Besides, I highly doubt Rose was telling the team "it's okay to leave some guys open on the perimeter. They have a hard time making those." I certainly hope, at least, that's not what Rose is telling our guys.



Lastly, again, BYU hasn't won an NCAA game in nearly 20 years. Just about every team on that list, including the ones the "elite" teams lost to, have won an NCAA game since 1993. The Richmond Spiders have done better than us in the NCAA tourney over the last 20 years. So, yes, the realists are a bit concerned. Is the season shot, no. Is there cause for concern, yes.
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BroncoBot
Mars wrote:
Who are the realists you are trying to show up? I know a few people, myself included, have noted the weaknesses of BYU throughout the season but not in attempt to say they're no good or can't win a big game. Every team loses in college basketball.

That's exactly the point. Declo was acting like BYU losing a road game in front of a sold-out crowd to a very good, likely NCAA Tourny team was embarrassing enough to scrap the season over. Which is straight up ig'nant, dog.



BYU has an RPI of 19 today. Sagarin- 9. Pomeroy- 7. I don't get the whining and hand-wringing like this is some terrible season. It just might be the best we'll see BYU do in a 30 year period, so enjoy it while it lasts.

Alright. Time to bury this topic.



1. Never said it was a bad season.

2. I just find it weird that everyone around here is fine with the way BYU played against UNLV which is our worst loss so far. I must have been watching a different game than the rest of you. I simply felt I was more invested in that game than the players were. So either I have a problem, or BYU does when they play a team in a sold out arena.

3. If the UNLV game turns out to be BYU's worst loss of the year, it will be a VERY good year. No complaints from me.

4. Sorry if it seemed like I had pooped my pants yesterday.
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Gunk
declocoug wrote:
mizzoucoug wrote:
Who are the realists you are trying to show up? I know a few people, myself included, have noted the weaknesses of BYU throughout the season but not in attempt to say they're no good or can't win a big game. Every team loses in college basketball.

That's exactly the point. Declo was acting like BYU losing a road game in front of a sold-out crowd to a very good, likely NCAA Tourny team was embarrassing enough to scrap the season over. Which is straight up ig'nant, dog.



BYU has an RPI of 19 today. Sagarin- 9. Pomeroy- 7. I don't get the whining and hand-wringing like this is some terrible season. It just might be the best we'll see BYU do in a 30 year period, so enjoy it while it lasts.

Alright. Time to bury this topic.



1. Never said it was a bad season.

2. I just find it weird that everyone around here is fine with the way BYU played against UNLV which is our worst loss so far. I must have been watching a different game than the rest of you. I simply felt I was more invested in that game than the players were. So either I have a problem, or BYU does when they play a team in a sold out arena.

3. If the UNLV game turns out to be BYU's worst loss of the year, it will be a VERY good year. No complaints from me.

4. Sorry if it seemed like I had pooped my pants yesterday.


No need to apologize, declocoug. BYU played like crap in that game. I hope it isn't indicative of things to come, but so far BYU hasn't proved otherwise.
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BroncoBot
Now I'm going to have to argue with you Gunk. ;)



I do agree with most people on here that UNLV was just one game. The whole reason that this got started again yesterday was because I foolishly let Mars lead me into an argument when he thought I was crazy for saying that UNLV, not USU was our worst loss. Word to the wise- never argue with Mars.



BYU has been dominating on the road against some good to average teams. Something they haven't done the last couple of years. They beat down AZ, ASU, UTEP, put up a great fight in NM, beat SDSU, Nevada, Nebraska :) (glorious name recognition win) and haven't come close to stumbling in conference play except for UNLV etc. There are a lot of positives for this team. BYU should win in the first round finally and hopefully takes the momentum from that game and runs off another couple wins.



Great thing about college hoops is that there is a tournament at the end. The tournament will decide quickly whether BYU is overrated and their record is indicative of a weak SOS or BYU is a legit top 15 team. I tend to think that BYU is one of the top teams out there that mentally/psychologically were defeated by UNLV before they stepped onto the court.
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craigoscarson
It wasn't just the UNLV game, it was that entire week. For whatever reason, they all looked gassed; even in a 20 point win over TCU.

In spite of UNLV being on fire and amped at home for the Cougs, we managed to make it respectable by the end.



Who in their right mind wouldn't have been happy with only 3 losses right now? All 3 coming at historically tough places to play; all 3 with their biggest home crowd of the season and all 3 were inside double digits with 5 minutes to go.



To make it out to be anymore than 3 tough games where we didn't play our best would be silly.



I'd be more upset if we had played to our potential and dropped a game; not only have we yet to do that, but even on the road when we do play well, we just dont' win.... we occasionally dominate historically good teams. I haven't seen the likes of that from a BYU hoops team in 20 years.



There aren't 5 teams in the country with "better losses" than us; our main problem is that we don't have a ton of great wins (lots of good ones though). The SDSU and New Mexico games next week (where we shoudl be pretty heavy favs at home) will do a lot to dispell that.

If we do win out (which I'd put at 75% chance right now) we should finish the regular season with a low teens RPI; and if we manage to win the conf tourney (which I put at about 35%) I see no reason why we wouldn't end up a 3 seed. A 3 seed pretty much seals the deal on getting the proverbial monkey off our backs ... given our current standing and an actual shot at doing that, I'm not sure there's much to pew pew about.
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Gunk
declocoug wrote:
Now I'm going to have to argue with you Gunk. ;)



I do agree with most people on here that UNLV was just one game. The whole reason that this got started again yesterday was because I foolishly let Mars lead me into an argument when he thought I was crazy for saying that UNLV, not USU was our worst loss. Word to the wise- never argue with Mars.



BYU has been dominating on the road against some good to average teams. Something they haven't done the last couple of years. They beat down AZ, ASU, UTEP, put up a great fight in NM, beat SDSU, Nevada, Nebraska :) (glorious name recognition win) and haven't come close to stumbling in conference play except for UNLV etc. There are a lot of positives for this team. BYU should win in the first round finally and hopefully takes the momentum from that game and runs off another couple wins.



Great thing about college hoops is that there is a tournament at the end. The tournament will decide quickly whether BYU is overrated and their record is indicative of a weak SOS or BYU is a legit top 15 team. I tend to think that BYU is one of the top teams out there that mentally/psychologically were defeated by UNLV before they stepped onto the court.


Only because I'm bored at work. :D



I hate ragging on BYU. There are many things this team has going for it that many teams in the past haven't had. And, I agree, this team has played quite well on the road. But I am starting to wonder how heavy those monkeys are on our back.



The best win this team has was on the road against SDSU (rpi 38). BYU only has two wins against top 50 rpi teams (UNLV and SDSU). That, of course could change. http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html



UTEP's rpi is 58. Arizona St.'s is 67 and Arizona's is 89. I don't want to take anything away from those wins, especially since they were on the road but if you go by rpi ranking, USU (rpi 35) is better than all three of those teams and we lost to them by 10.



Yes, we haven't lost a game like those "elite" schools to a sub 50 or sub 100 rpi team, which is quite good, but we've lost more games against top 50 rpi teams than we've won, leading me to wonder how we'll perform in the tourney.



For the record, though I know many won't care, I want BYU to win out and I always predict a win no matter the odds, unlike some who proclaim themselves die-hards and harp on the "realists" and then predict losses (Mars, I believe, picked BYU to lose against UNM).
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BroncoBot
Well, as the poll I started shows, apparently a number of fans believe that the difference between expecting BYU to win or not is who they are playing. In other words, they believe BYU is overrated and shouldn't be expected to win games against tough opponents. Even if they are WAY back in the polls/rankings.



On the other hand there are fans like you and I who believe that a #15 ranked BYU theoretically should have an even better record right now, especially with the schedule they were dealt this year. In other words, we want to see BYU win every game that they should. And I don't really care that other top teams are losing to bad teams, I'm only concerned with how BYU is doing. I don't see it as ragging on BYU, just a difference in perspective.
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craigoscarson
declocoug wrote:
Well, as the poll I started shows, apparently a number of fans believe that the difference between expecting BYU to win or not is who they are playing. In other words, they believe BYU is overrated and shouldn't be expected to win games against tough opponents. Even if they are WAY back in the polls/rankings.



On the other hand there are fans like you and I who believe that a #15 ranked BYU theoretically should have an even better record right now, especially with the schedule they were dealt this year. In other words, we want to see BYU win every game that they should. And I don't really care that other top teams are losing to bad teams, I'm only concerned with how BYU is doing. I don't see it as ragging on BYU, just a difference in perspective.


In other words, they believe BYU is overrated and shouldn't be expected to win games against tough opponents. Even if they are WAY back in the polls/rankings.

(this is #1 assuming we agree with the polls.... the same polls that had Texas #1 for half the season and Gonzaga in the top 10 this week.....)



I've seen some faulty logic here, but this takes the cake for the week.



Just because we base whether we win or lose to a certain team doesn't make us overrated... nor do the people that voted that way in your poll mean that....



Let's just disregard where the game is played, the motivation of the home team getting up for BYU, matchups etc..



I dont' think we were saying it depends on who we play based on their (and our ranking) ... what we were voting on is the fact that the road is not an easy place to win.... that matchups vs certain teams (particularly rivals on the road) .... and even a little luck is involved.



Rankings dont' mean that the 14 teams in front will beat you and the 289 behind you will lose; rankings are a comparison of a combination of a teams collective work , their actual talent, and often name recognition. Does Kansas deserve to be ranked ahead of Syracuse? absolutely

Are they better? no



There's a reason you play the games and that they play 30+ of em.



No one is batting 1.000 and there aren't 5 teams without a worse loss than us... in fact some of them have that worse loss at home.... where we are batting 1.000



Seriously how spoiled could we be? In spite of our best player having mono during the heart of our schedule, in spite of playing more games on the road than any other top 10 ranked team in the current polls, in spite of our backup center being out for 2 weeks, etc. etc. etc. we're ranked in the top 15, have only lost 3 road games, and have our biggest upcoming games at home. How could be possibly complain? Because we laid one egg against a firethrowing UNLV team that day? That we lost a game at the Pit where we had the lead with 2 minutes left? That we had an ooops game against a USU team that will have 20+ wins?



Things are going splendid at this point in the season; let's enjoy the ride.



We could be Texas, North Carolina or Gonzaga right now, count your blessings........teams with serious problems.
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