Big 10 Expansion is the bigger issue

As I have summarized on other posts, BYU will never ever ever be going to the PAC-10. There is a clause for conference expansion in the PAC 10 that the vote must be unanimous. Cal-Berkeley, for one, will under no conditions allow BYU into the conference. In fact, the likelyhood that the PAC-10 expands at all is seriously in question because of that clause.



We should not be wasting any more blog space discussing that possibility.



The real discussion impacting BYU's potential move to another conference is what happens with the Big 10 conference (and secondarily what the PAC 10 does in terms of Colorado). The Big 10 make oceans more $$$$ on TV contracts than the PAC-10. While the PAC-10 would love a chance to lure Texas into their conference, they don't have the negotiating power. (Oh, in case you haven't figured this all out yet, the whole Big 10/Pac 10 expansion issue is largely about one school.... Texas, It could happen without the Longhorns, but that is the initiating factor of this whole process) The Big 10 has plenty of leverage and is seeking another large television market. Texas is the grand prize of conference expansion and is the principal target. The Big 10 may opt for the St. Louis market (#18 television market) in the likes of the University of Missouri as a plan B. (Pitt is far less likely than the sports media is saying, it already well within the Big 10 TV footprint)



If the Big 10 takes either, there is a solid argument that has been made that BYU is the best choice for a replacement in the Big 12. I know many of you are now saying, no, it would be TCU. Know this... TCU gives nothing to the Big 12 financially, period. TCU is well within the TV footprint of the Big 12 and offers no additional staying power or negotiation leverage in terms of television contracts for the conference. Additionally, TCU is a one sport institution, is uber small (enrollment 8,000), and has a football crowd of 30,000 on a good day. Historically, when Arkansas went to the SEC and the Southwest Conference and Big 8 crumbled, the schools that formed the resultant Big 12 left TCU (along with SMU, etc) behind. Why do you think that they were left out in the first place? Sports fans place way too much emphasis on recent football success when it comes to expansion. TCU's going to a BCS game last year is not even as close to the most important factor involved in conference expansion. The factors that matter most to the BIG 12 are $$$$$ including TV contracts, facilities, and brand name. Bringing more than one sport to the table is also a vauled asset.



TCU to the Big 12 is a long shot and would likely require 2 vacancies (not out the possibility) to even happen.



Were I in charge of the Big 12 and had two vacancies to fill, given the realistic landscape of college football (i.e. a team like Arkansas from the SEC is not going to leave bucket of cash to come to the BIG 12) I would extend an invitation to BYU (SLC #50 TV market rating + nationwide LDS following) and then go pluck Louisville from the Big East (#44 television market).



So, while Utah is getting all the pub about the possibility of ending up in the PAC 10... Take heart Cougar faithful. I believe it is more likely that BYU ends up in the Big 12 with Utah staying put than Utah going to the PAC 10 and BYU staying in the MWC. Of course, if the PAC 10 "condescends" to their plan B.. or C of taking Colorado and Utah, it only improves the chances for BYU to make it into the Big 12.



Watch how the Big 10 operates, it will determine how the rest of the dominoes will fall.

Samurai Jack wrote:
Historically, when Arkansas went to the SEC and the Southwest Conference and Big 8 crumbled, the schools that formed the resultant Big 12 left TCU (along with SMU, etc) behind. Why do you think that they were left out in the first place?

Because Texas Governor Ann Richards forced the inclusion of her Alma Mater Baylor over TCU, the desired target.



Besides, the Big Ten will offer more money to 1-Notre Dame and 2-Texas and still be denied by both.

The PAC-10 will court various Big XII school and be turned down by all of them for their lack of cash. And the PAC-10 won't take Utah and someone else just for the heck of it, shrinking the overall pie.



Nothing is happening in any of the power conferences. At the end of the day, the MWC still needs to take Boise State before the end of the summer. That's all that matters right now.

Mars wrote:

Historically, when Arkansas went to the SEC and the Southwest Conference and Big 8 crumbled, the schools that formed the resultant Big 12 left TCU (along with SMU, etc) behind. Why do you think that they were left out in the first place?

Because Texas Governor Ann Richards forced the inclusion of her Alma Mater Baylor over TCU, the desired target.



Besides, the Big Ten will offer more money to 1-Notre Dame and 2-Texas and still be denied by both.

The PAC-10 will court various Big XII school and be turned down by all of them for their lack of cash. And the PAC-10 won't take Utah and someone else just for the heck of it, shrinking the overall pie.



Nothing is happening in any of the power conferences. At the end of the day, the MWC still needs to take Boise State before the end of the summer. That's all that matters right now.

Hi Mars



It is indeed possible that things fall out just as you say. The financial pressures and opportunism in NCAA football have shifted enough, however, that there may indeed be some shift.



I believe Texas will weigh the options carefully, they may indeed stay put in the Big 12, but it is not a foregone conclusion.



Missouri is showing signs it wants to go to the Big 10. Missouri would increase Big 10 revenue and this certainly could happen.



I tend to agree that it is most likely that the PAC 10 will not expand.



There are so many versions about the Baylor's political insertion into the Big 12. Perhaps TCU was a victim. Some say the victim was BYU, certainly you've heard that before. I, for one, don't buy the version that Baylor in the Big 12 directly pushed out TCU. I think it's TCU's perception because they wanted in so badly. But, I could be wrong.

From what I heard, almost all the BcS Conf's, are expanding, all but the SEC, iirc, if that happens, I could see BYU going to the BIG XII, soon to be the BIG XIV.