Good Wins and Bad Losses

I analyzed our football schedules going back to 1998 (because that's as far back as Sagarin ratings go) for "good wins" and "bad losses." I defined these as teams that finished the season in the top 35 as good wins and teams that finished outside the top 75 as bad losses. I used Sagarin's ratings for the rankings. Obviously the 2019 season is not yet over and those can still change.


BYU Football Good Wins Bad Losses.PNG

It seems like there have been a few more wins I’d call good wins, but wow that’s lots of really bad losses for KS.

Good post, 3 bad losses in 11 years for Bronco. Interesting...….

Thank heavens no one is talking about "good losses"--no such thing IMHO.



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byufan4ever wrote:

I analyzed our football schedules going back to 1998 (because that's as far back as Sagarin ratings go) for "good wins" and "bad losses." I defined these as teams that finished the season in the top 35 as good wins and teams that finished outside the top 75 as bad losses. I used Sagarin's ratings for the rankings. Obviously the 2019 season is not yet over and those can still change.



BYU Football Good Wins Bad Losses.PNG

Good list. A few thoughts:



1. Out of the 20 "good" wins over the last 20+ years, only 2 are on the road (TCU in '06 and Wisconsin '18). The rest are at home or neutral site games. It's really hard to beat good teams on the road. I looked up Boise St who has the best winning pct. and most wins in College football over the last 20 years. Who has an astonishing 22-12 record against teams that win 10 games or more (the best in college football). How many road wins vs. the Sagarin top 35 do they have? 2. If Tennessee wins out (currently Sagarin 40) Kalani will have 2 road wins against Sagarin top 35 teams.



2. Sagarin seems to distinguish things by top 30 not top 35. If we look at the Sagarin top 30:

Crowton is 0-7. Bronco is 5-20. Kalani is 3-10 so far (3-6 over the last 2 years).



3. This discussion has got me thinking how silly it is to talk about bad losses. All losses stink. Every single one. For a program like BYU eliminating "bad losses" doesn't mean much. We seem to accumulate enough "OK losses" that our fate is already sealed. In 10 out of the last 20 seasons BYU had a "bad loss". What if those "bad losses" was turned into a wins? Let's also assume if that win makes us bowl eligible we win the bowl game. So if we only change the bad loss and add a bowl win where applicable here are the differences:



'00 6-6 ----> 8-5

'02 5-7 ----> 8-5

'03 4-8 ----> 5-7

'04 5-6 ----> 7-5

'10 7-6 ----> 8-5

'13 8-5 ----> 9-4

'14 8-5 ----> 9-4

17 4-9 ----> 7-6

'18 7-6 ----> 8-5



Eliminating "bad losses" doesn't get us a national title, a top 10 finish, or a major bowl game. It wouldn't give us a top 25 finish either. The two years we would have finished 9-4 we lost our bowl game to the team that finished ranked #25. It wouldn't have changed our record vs. Utah, Boise St., and TCU. If we have a "bad loss" we should already know we are fighting for varying degrees of average.



Maybe 2019 will be different, but with a 8-2 SDSU on the road and a bowl game, we likely will be wondering how it would have felt to finish 9-4 instead of 7-6.

We eliminate the "bad" Losses this year and we are ranked in the top 25 right now. If Kalani eliminates his head scratcher losses and keeps pulling rabbits out of his hat on some good wins, we could end up being very happy with him as a HC. That is my hope.

mormonrasta wrote:

I analyzed our football schedules going back to 1998 (because that's as far back as Sagarin ratings go) for "good wins" and "bad losses." I defined these as teams that finished the season in the top 35 as good wins and teams that finished outside the top 75 as bad losses. I used Sagarin's ratings for the rankings. Obviously the 2019 season is not yet over and those can still change.



BYU Football Good Wins Bad Losses.PNG

3. This discussion has got me thinking how silly it is to talk about bad losses. All losses stink. Every single one. For a program like BYU eliminating "bad losses" doesn't mean much.

I'm going to disagree. It's not silly to talk about bad losses. Not all wins and losses are equal in college football. In the NFL where you have 32 teams and 16 games played you can pretty much just go on win/loss for a ranking of who is better than whom. In college football you have I think 130 I-A teams and just 12 games played. Everyone's SOS is wildly different. Going 6-6 in the Big 12 is much different than going 6-6 in the MWC. Not just your record, but who you beat and lose to is an indicator of how good or bad of a team and a coach you are. No way that losing to USF is the same as losing to Washington. No freakin way.



Sometimes the truth just hurts and the stats speak for themselves.

byufan4ever wrote:

byufan4ever wrote:

I analyzed our football schedules going back to 1998 (because that's as far back as Sagarin ratings go) for "good wins" and "bad losses." I defined these as teams that finished the season in the top 35 as good wins and teams that finished outside the top 75 as bad losses. I used Sagarin's ratings for the rankings. Obviously the 2019 season is not yet over and those can still change.



BYU Football Good Wins Bad Losses.PNG

3. This discussion has got me thinking how silly it is to talk about bad losses. All losses stink. Every single one. For a program like BYU eliminating "bad losses" doesn't mean much.

I'm going to disagree. It's not silly to talk about bad losses. Not all wins and losses are equal in college football. In the NFL where you have 32 teams and 16 games played you can pretty much just go on win/loss for a ranking of who is better than whom. In college football you have I think 130 I-A teams and just 12 games played. Everyone's SOS is wildly different. Going 6-6 in the Big 12 is much different than going 6-6 in the MWC. Not just your record, but who you beat and lose to is an indicator of how good or bad of a team and a coach you are. No way that losing to USF is the same as losing to Washington. No freakin way.



Sometimes the truth just hurts and the stats speak for themselves.

6-6 in the MWC gets you a lower tier bowl.

6-6 in the Big 12 gets you a lower tier bowl.



6-6 in the MWC does not get you ranked, or into a major bowl, and certainly no playoff berth. All of this is true for a 6-6 Big 12 team.



So what does a Big 12 team with a 6-6 record get over a 6-6 MWC team? A HIGHER SAGARIN RATING!!!!



Let me know when they start hanging banners for that.



This whole bad loss conversation is insane for programs like BYU. It matters to elite teams, but we are far from it.

Just as charity covers a multitude of sins, a win over Utah would cover a whole lot of bad losses in my book.

BoiseBYU wrote:

Just as charity covers a multitude of sins, a win over Utah would cover a whole lot of bad losses in my book.

If BYU beats Utah in 2020, the fanbase will deify KS.

Today's 1st half was a good win. The 2nd half was a bad loss.