How many more wins, realistically, do we have on our schedule.

Here is BYU's remaining schedule, how many wins do you think they have. I think 2 is my number. Change my mind.



Oct 19 Boise State

Nov 2 @ Utah State

Nov 9 Liberty

Nov 16 Idaho State

Nov 23 @ Massachusetts

Nov 30 @ San Diego State

5-7

Agree. Was just looking at this as well. most likely 5-7, 6-6 at best if Utah State or San Diego State has some major injuries or a really bad week.

The way we're playing, other than Idaho State, I'm not sure any other game is a given W.

All valid points. Liberty is currently 4-2 so that is not a guaranteed win, we lost to Umass a couple of years ago at home so that is not a guaranteed win. I can't even believe I am typing this but this team seems to find new ways to lose every week, after having started the season with 2 wins against 2 storied programs in dramatic fashion, showing a never die attitude.

7-6 is literally the worst case scenario with this team. The best case scenario is 3-9 and a changing of the guard sooner rather than later

ABYUFAN wrote:

7-6 is literally the worst case scenario with this team. The best case scenario is 3-9 and a changing of the guard sooner rather than later

I see what you're doing here you sly dog you.... ;)

We just lost to USF. No wins are guaranteed.

6-6 with an unexpected win would be the norm with this staff.

Probably beat BSU and lose the rest. lol.

ABYUFAN wrote:

7-6 is literally the worst case scenario with this team. The best case scenario is 3-9 and a changing of the guard sooner rather than later

I see what you did there but I can't agree with it even if it is TIC. I want BYU to win every week. I would rather see Kalani figure it out and become a good HC because that is best for BYU football, I just don't see it happening so I am asking a realistic question. IMO if BYU turned it around and won out and ended up with a winning record for this year, I would be in favor of keeping him for another year. Realistically, I don't see that happening. The team is playing horribly on both offense and defense.

frdbtr wrote:

7-6 is literally the worst case scenario with this team. The best case scenario is 3-9 and a changing of the guard sooner rather than later

I see what you did there but I can't agree with it even if it is TIC. I want BYU to win every week. I would rather see Kalani figure it out and become a good HC because that is best for BYU football, I just don't see it happening so I am asking a realistic question. IMO if BYU turned it around and won out and ended up with a winning record for this year, I would be in favor of keeping him for another year. Realistically, I don't see that happening. The team is playing horribly on both offense and defense.

For what it's worth I want BYU to win every week too - I want Kalani to figure it out. I also want to eat Chili dogs for breakfast and have my doctor tell me that that's healthy. I understand the divergence between what I want and what is real.

I'm completing my Master's thesis right now and part of the thesis is looking at if the difference in rankings could be used to determine the probability of winning. For the very simple model that it employed, it does well. In the case of BYU and the rest of the season, the results look like this:



2-10: .04%

3-9: 1.41%

4-8: 15.59%

5-7: 53.80%

6-6: 25.39%

7-5: 3.64%

8-4: .13%



These probabilities are based off of the Massey Rating. Different computer polls will have some small variations to this, but are likely to very similar, with 5-7 the most like outcome with wins against Liberty, Idaho State and Umass.

StatsCougar wrote:

I'm completing my Master's thesis right now and part of the thesis is looking at if the difference in rankings could be used to determine the probability of winning. For the very simple model that it employed, it does well. In the case of BYU and the rest of the season, the results look like this:



2-10: .04%

3-9: 1.41%

4-8: 15.59%

5-7: 53.80%

6-6: 25.39%

7-5: 3.64%

8-4: .13%



These probabilities are based off of the Massey Rating. Different computer polls will have some small variations to this, but are likely to very similar, with 5-7 the most like outcome with wins against Liberty, Idaho State and Umass.

Nice work!

frdbtr wrote:

7-6 is literally the worst case scenario with this team. The best case scenario is 3-9 and a changing of the guard sooner rather than later

I see what you did there but I can't agree with it even if it is TIC. I want BYU to win every week. I would rather see Kalani figure it out and become a good HC because that is best for BYU football, I just don't see it happening so I am asking a realistic question. IMO if BYU turned it around and won out and ended up with a winning record for this year, I would be in favor of keeping him for another year. Realistically, I don't see that happening. The team is playing horribly on both offense and defense.

I think ABYUFAN wants whatever the strongest argument will be to having Sitake gone, since many of us have come to the conclusion he's a lost cause. Short of him being caught in a motel room near North Temple with a hooker and an 8 ball of coke, that's losing as many games as possible the rest of the way.



Short-term, I never want to see BYU lose. Long term, however, Sitake gone can only help the program.

I said this last year.



For the long term sake of BYU football it's best BYU sever its relationship with Sitake ASAP. While I get it may be hard for many, that may mean turning the TV off, not going to games, or buying gear. Unless attendence and revenue drops, Sitake is here to stay.



I want BYU to win as much as the next fan. But I don't enjoy watching them flounder out on the field. Why put myself through the agony. Sports is about entertainment. If I am not entertained by the product, I will watch something else.

BroncoBot wrote:

Probably beat BSU and lose the rest. lol.

Well, I'm batting 1.000 so far. Hope I'm wrong thr rest of the way.

Honestly, with seeing the beatdown and how much rushing Air Force put on Utah State, I don't think this week will be too intense. Utah State will play better against BYU because that is what they do. Will BYU play down to their level? It will be a fun game, but I think we can handle them this year.



San Diego St is good, but not that good.



I honestly think we win out and finish 9-4.

TulaneVandyRiceCoug wrote:

Honestly, with seeing the beatdown and how much rushing Air Force put on Utah State, I don't think this week will be too intense. Utah State will play better against BYU because that is what they do. Will BYU play down to their level? It will be a fun game, but I think we can handle them this year.



San Diego St is good, but not that good.



I honestly think we win out and finish 9-4.

Are you underestimating USU based off one game and overestimating BYU off one game. I want to believe BYU can win out from here but I have ZERO reason to believe that's possible. Especially against USU or San Diego State. I'm not sure they can go 6-6.