El Guapo wrote:
My thoughts exactly. If we couldn't even muster 7 points vs. NIU's 27th ranked D in Provo, how are we gonna move the ball against Utah's top 15 D in Salt Lake? :blush:
Well BYU probably will struggle, but there is one way to expect they could score at RE: it could be that Utah's defense is not top 15. Now I know that's crazy talk at this point in the season, but here's how I figure it. Outside of the PAC 12, the only teams Utah played were NIU and Weber state. That's it. Meanwhile, the PAC 12 is having their worst season in years, maybe a couple of decades. The highest Playoff-ranked team in the PAC 12 is WSU at 8. EIGHT! Just above UCF! The second highest ranked team is Utah at #17.
Given that only ONE PAC-12 team is ranked above 15 and that Utah has, essentially only played PAC 12 teams, then there is NO WAY that their defense could objectively be ranked at 15. I know that such statistics are largely mythical anyway, but these circumstances strike me as a bit more mythical than usual.
So sure Utah's defense is good, but don't forget that NIU scored six on Utah and only 7 on us. It is possible that Utah's defense is on par with BYU's and not some uber-PAC 12 thing. I think a Zach-led offense might surprise Utah a bit.
I still think a BYU win is an outlier probability, and I'm not confident BYU will cover the spread, but I simply think Utah's defense is over-rated. Here's hoping they believe their own press clippings and BYU gets a chance to catch them looking ahead to the Championship game.