This Year's Floor?

What's the bottom insofar as our final win total is concerned? Obviously we could win or lose the rest of our games, but that's not likely to happen.



I looked at the schedule and the quality of opponents and conclude that our floor should be 22 or 23 wins. If we win 25 that would be a very good season. More than that--NIT being the exception--and we would have had an fantastic season.



For example, I think the season would be good, but not fantastic, if we win 22 regular-season games, fail to make the NCAAs, but win four NIT match ups.

Please stop thinking about success in terms of number of wins. What will our post season success be? That should be the question. How far will this team go? NIT first round again?

Using DRatings for predictor purposes, here is what our season could look like:


BYU bball 2018-2019 Predictions.PNG

And this is what the tournament committe would potentially see at the end of the season so this is all that really matters:


BYU 2018-2019 Resume.PNG

So we can celebrate a whole bunch of tier 3 and 4 wins if you want but until we perform better in tier 1 and 2 we are not going to see many post season invites.

Shooting is so poor this year, it's hard to believe that BYU can get beyond a first round NIT exit. But hopefully those shooting woes will correct themselves.

Anything less than a win in the NCAAs will be a disappointment to me

Well, the only thing between us and a winless-season is Nick Emery's self-restraint, so I think vacating all wins is the true bottom floor.

Ouch.

byufan4ever wrote:

Using DRatings for predictor purposes, here is what our season could look like:



BYU bball 2018-2019 Predictions.PNG



And this is what the tournament committe would potentially see at the end of the season so this is all that really matters:



BYU 2018-2019 Resume.PNG



So we can celebrate a whole bunch of tier 3 and 4 wins if you want but until we perform better in tier 1 and 2 we are not going to see many post season invites.

And if you want to make this more accurate then add in one win from the 4 Gonzaga/St. Mary's games as well as two losses to 200+ ranked teams.

We don't go to the NCAA tourney, the season is a failure.

ABYUFAN wrote:

Anything less than a win in the NCAAs will be a disappointment to me

Which is why I have a years-long streak of being disappointed by BYU basketball.



Not putting blame anywhere in particular, but it almost always seems like we're close but find a way to choke and not quite make the cut. Here's hoping this year breaks the streak!