Sports Illustrated Ranks Every D1 Team BYU at...

BYU comes in at #67. They predict 2nd in the WCC.



https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2018/10/31/college-hoops-rankings-every-team-kansas-duke-kentucky?utm_campaign=si-extra&utm_source=si.com&utm_medium=email&utm_content=2018103113PM&eminfo=%7b%22EMAIL%22%3a%22iGVwEeSbQ9SsLymVLyqrAqyTrkkPMrpS%22%2c%22BRAND%22%3a%22SI%22%2c%22CONTENT%22%3a%22Newsletter%22%2c%22UID%22%3a%22SI_EXT_C683C21C-9ADF-42CB-8B42-BB57583688FA%22%2c%22SUBID%22%3a%2299042111%22%2c%22JOBID%22%3a%22913020%22%2c%22NEWSLETTER%22%3a%22SI_EXTRA%22%2c%22ZIP%22%3a%22%22%2c%22COUNTRY%22%3a%22CAN%22%7d

That would put them about right outside of the Big Dance...again.

Fair ranking.

Gunk wrote:
Fair ranking.

Ken Pomeroy has us at 56, ESPN's BPI which is supposed to be predictive, puts us at #32. Sagarin isn't out yet. Those are more data/computer model based.

BlueK wrote:

Fair ranking.

Ken Pomeroy has us at 56, ESPN's BPI which is supposed to be predictive, puts us at #32. Sagarin isn't out yet. Those are more data/computer model based.

I'm not convinced we're top 35 program. I want us to be.

Gunk wrote:

Gunk wrote:
Fair ranking.

Ken Pomeroy has us at 56, ESPN's BPI which is supposed to be predictive, puts us at #32. Sagarin isn't out yet. Those are more data/computer model based.

I'm not convinced we're top 35 program. I want us to be.

ESPN has updated their numbers as of last week, I guess. Now we're #41. The #32 was from when they published it at the end of July. I found an explanation on ESPN for how they come up with it.



2018/2019 pre-season BPI:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/overview/page/2



What goes into BPI?

1. Coach’s past performance: This is captured by the coach’s average adjusted offensive and defensive rating (points per 100 possessions) since 2007-08 (including games at other schools). A first-time head coach gets a replacement-level rating.



2. Recruiting rankings: The average recruiting grade of the incoming class (compiled by 247 Sports) from four recruiting services (ESPN, Scouts, Rivals and 247 Sports). The number of five-star recruits joining a program is an additional input because of the singular impact they can have.



3. Current roster returning: The minutes played in each previous season for returning players, including transfers. Each player’s highest percentage of minutes played in a season during his career is used to help account for injuries and other setbacks.



4. Performance of those returning players: Opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive rating for returning players.



To simplify, preseason BPI asks: 1.) What percentage of minutes are returning? 2.) Are those returning minutes any good? 3) How will the team fill the non-returning minutes? 4.) What is the coach’s track record?



These preseason components hold different weights depending on how many players are returning, but they are combined in a Bayesian hierarchical model to produce a team’s preseason BPI.



http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/125994/bpi-and-strength-of-record-what-are-they-and-how-are-they-derived

These predictions are sometimes fun but I am much more concerned with how we perform than what these predictions are.

nuk13 wrote:

These predictions are sometimes fun but I am much more concerned with how we perform than what these predictions are.

There hasn't been any real performance to talk about yet, so it's all we have. Exhibitions don't really reveal much, unless maybe if you lose to a d2 team maybe it does.

BlueK wrote:

These predictions are sometimes fun but I am much more concerned with how we perform than what these predictions are.

There hasn't been any real performance to talk about yet, so it's all we have. Exhibitions don't really reveal much, unless maybe if you lose to a d2 team maybe it does.

The exhibition games have left me very very unimpressed with our backups.

ABYUFAN wrote:

nuk13 wrote:

These predictions are sometimes fun but I am much more concerned with how we perform than what these predictions are.

There hasn't been any real performance to talk about yet, so it's all we have. Exhibitions don't really reveal much, unless maybe if you lose to a d2 team maybe it does.

The exhibition games have left me very very unimpressed with our backups.

Honestly, I can't remember a single year our internet posting fans have ever been impressed with the team following the exhibitions, and that includes Jimmer's senior year. They're not really meant to look like real games. The coaches' priorities are totally different for them. They're like NFL pre-season games.

I think we'll be 5-1 going into the Houston game, 9-1 or 8-2 going into the Utah game, 12-3 or 11-4 going into the conference schedule. We'll see how that pans out.

BlueK wrote:

BlueK wrote:

These predictions are sometimes fun but I am much more concerned with how we perform than what these predictions are.

There hasn't been any real performance to talk about yet, so it's all we have. Exhibitions don't really reveal much, unless maybe if you lose to a d2 team maybe it does.

The exhibition games have left me very very unimpressed with our backups.

Honestly, I can't remember a single year our internet posting fans have ever been impressed with the team following the exhibitions, and that includes Jimmer's senior year. They're not really meant to look like real games. The coaches' priorities are totally different for them. They're like NFL pre-season games.

That's a fair point. I should have been more specific. Neither Bergerson nor Baxter look anywhere near ready to offer significant contributions this year.

I've been impressed with Baxter so far, at least offensively. When Childs has been doubled he's been wide open for some slam dunks. Worthington, every time he touches the ball, he puts his head down, does the same move and tries to score. Defensively, Worthington is currently way better than Baxter. But I really like what I see from Baxter so far.

And ESPN's BPI projects BYU to go 25-6. Yes, we may not do that well. But on the other hand this shows there are actually some objective measures out there that are less gloom and doom than we tend to read on the BYU fan boards. Let's just sit back and watch and enjoy each game for what it is. I think it'll be ok.



https://247sports.com/college/byu/ContentGallery/BYU-Basketballs-ESPN-BPI-Projections-for-the-2018-19-season-124167303/

If we go 28-3 and don't make the tournament I consider that a failure.

byufan4ever wrote:

If we go 28-3 and don't make the tournament I consider that a failure.

25-6 would make the tournament. But I agree getting there is the measuring stick for whether the team has accomplished what they need to this year. I realize your 28-3 example is probably rhetorical, but not making the tournament on that record would have to be pretty close to impossible given what is expected from the non-conference schedule.

BlueK wrote:

If we go 28-3 and don't make the tournament I consider that a failure.

25-6 would make the tournament. But I agree getting there is the measuring stick for whether the team has accomplished what they need to this year. I realize your 28-3 example is probably rhetorical, but not making the tournament on that record would have to be pretty close to impossible given what is expected from the non-conference schedule.

Yes, success needs to be measured by post-season (how far we progress in which tournament) rather than number of wins. I think this is a paradigm shift that many fans need to adjust to. Look at St. Mary's last year. Lots of [empty] wins but no NCAA tournament.