Look at this and draw your own conclusions

BYU vs BCS/P5 Teams (2005-2017)





-------------------------------------------- Bronco

2005: 0-3

2006: 1-2

2007: 2-1

2008: 2-1

2009: 2-1

2010: 1-2

-------------------------------------------- Independence

2011: 2-3

2012: 2-3

2013: 2-5

2014: 3-0

2015: 1-4

--------------------------------------------- Sitake

2016: 3-3

2017: 0-4





21-32 (.397)





Takeaways:



BYU has had a winning record vs BCS/P5 teams only 4 of the 13 seasons above



BYU hasn't beaten more than 3 BCS/P5 teams in a season



Of the 21 BCS/P5 teams BYU beat, only 8 had winning records and nothing better than 8-5



BYU is scheduled to play 4 P5 teams in 2019, 6 P5 teams in 2020, and 7 P5 teams in 2021

Bump for fans (and Tom Holmoe) who wants BYU to schedule a lot of P5 opponents every year.

I don't mind playing 6-7 P5's in a season but it can't be the top teams from every league. I understand the schedule is made years in advance but year in and year out the same teams sit at the top. Instead of USC or Michigan State why not Oregon State or Indiana? Maybe Northwestern or Kansas.



The fans love the thought of playing the best of the best until they lose and then it's why are we scheduling like this. But after a win against a Wisconsin team everyone was like heck ya bring on Alabama (tic)

If your in a P5 conference you play 7-9 P5 teams a year. But your also recruiting P5 talent because your in a P5 conference. Right now BYU is having a hard time not getting P5 talent at the starting position but at the 2nd and 3rd string. BYU is not deep enough to play it week in and week out.

a1247 wrote:

I don't mind playing 6-7 P5's in a season but it can't be the top teams from every league. I understand the schedule is made years in advance but year in and year out the same teams sit at the top. Instead of USC or Michigan State why not Oregon State or Indiana? Maybe Northwestern or Kansas.



The fans love the thought of playing the best of the best until they lose and then it's why are we scheduling like this. But after a win against a Wisconsin team everyone was like heck ya bring on Alabama (tic)

If your in a P5 conference you play 7-9 P5 teams a year. But your also recruiting P5 talent because your in a P5 conference. Right now BYU is having a hard time not getting P5 talent at the starting position but at the 2nd and 3rd string. BYU is not deep enough to play it week in and week out.

Which is exactly why we have no business scheduling like a P5 program. Especially with a coaching staff that's just not up to the task. Not unless we want to see a whole lotta losing.



I went further back to 1998, when the BCS was instituted - a 20 year sample. Even if you include the less than elite BCS/P5 we have a 30-44 (.406) record. And, again, no wins against anything better than 8-5. Generally speaking, we'll lose to P5 teams 60% of the time.



Going by the stats over the past 20 years, BYU should be scheduling no more than 3 P5 teams a season.

BYU has to decide what it wants to be.



Does it want to compete for national titles or simply be a fun form of entertainment.



If it wants to compete for national titles, we need to be in a P5 conference or mirror a P5 schedule as much as possible so we are in contention for a playoff spot.



If all BYU cares about is providing good entertainment and being somewhat relative then we schedule no more than three P5s. One biggie, Utah, and some other lower-end P5. Fans will have to get over this. We like to think we belong with the big dogs and maybe we just don't.



I don't get the feeling this is what BYU football wants, though. I get the feeling from the whole "schedule anyone, anywhere" mantra that BYU aims to make the playoffs. Fans certainly have those expectations.



If that's the case, BYU needs to invest accordingly.

KingCoug wrote:

I don't mind playing 6-7 P5's in a season but it can't be the top teams from every league. I understand the schedule is made years in advance but year in and year out the same teams sit at the top. Instead of USC or Michigan State why not Oregon State or Indiana? Maybe Northwestern or Kansas.



The fans love the thought of playing the best of the best until they lose and then it's why are we scheduling like this. But after a win against a Wisconsin team everyone was like heck ya bring on Alabama (tic)

If your in a P5 conference you play 7-9 P5 teams a year. But your also recruiting P5 talent because your in a P5 conference. Right now BYU is having a hard time not getting P5 talent at the starting position but at the 2nd and 3rd string. BYU is not deep enough to play it week in and week out.

Which is exactly why we have no business scheduling like a P5 program. Especially with a coaching staff that's just not up to the task. Not unless we want to see a whole lotta losing.



I went further back to 1998, when the BCS was instituted - a 20 year sample. Even if you include the less than elite BCS/P5 we have a 30-44 (.406) record. And, again, no wins against anything better than 8-5. Generally speaking, we'll lose to P5 teams 60% of the time.



Going by the stats over the past 20 years, BYU should be scheduling no more than 3 P5 teams a season.

So all you really care about is winning and not caring who it is as long as its a win?

I don't buy that. I remember when BYU was in the WAC & MWC people cried all the time about not getting any respect because of the schedule.



I don't have an idea how to fix this dumpster fire. I want BYU to be considered a P5 quality program. I want winning seasons just as much as anyone but only scheduling 3 P5 teams a year makes those winning season feel hollow and no one is going to consider BYU a P5 program. (Boise State is the perfect example)



I think we both agree that the next few years are going to be hard no matter who's coaching the team. I know we both agree BYU doesn't have the talent to compete with 6-7 P5 teams in 2-3 years and unless the next 2 recruiting classes are gems and most of those gems choose to not go on missions the talent gap isn't going to change.



I also know that 5-8 years ago these types of schedules are exactly what the fan base told TH they wanted. I guess winning against a bunch of G5 teams year in and year out gave this fan base a false sense of reality. And our reality is all those shinny bright winning records where products of lousy competition not greatness. :~(

I assume it would be helpful to compare apples to apples so to speak - what does this type of chart look like for top tier, mid-tier, and lower tier P5 schools over the same time periods? My uneducated guess is that (percentage-wise) there are a number of P5 teams that have performed at or below the level of BYU.

Gunk wrote:

BYU has to decide what it wants to be.



Does it want to compete for national titles or simply be a fun form of entertainment.



If it wants to compete for national titles, we need to be in a P5 conference or mirror a P5 schedule as much as possible so we are in contention for a playoff spot.



If all BYU cares about is providing good entertainment and being somewhat relative then we schedule no more than three P5s. One biggie, Utah, and some other lower-end P5. Fans will have to get over this. We like to think we belong with the big dogs and maybe we just don't.



I don't get the feeling this is what BYU football wants, though. I get the feeling from the whole "schedule anyone, anywhere" mantra that BYU aims to make the playoffs. Fans certainly have those expectations.



If that's the case, BYU needs to invest accordingly.

You've stated it perfectly "BYU has to decide what it wants to be". And it's not just the athletic program that needs to make some hard decisions it's the school itself. I've beat it down a lot and I must sound like a broken record but the honor code needs a major over haul if not done away with completely. Not being able to hire a non LDS head coach that also has to have a temple recommend is another thing that needs to go. Im not saying i want Urban Meyer coming to BYU but why handcuff yourself to one very specific class of individuals. Especially if the fans fire them every 3 years, eventually you're going to run out of qualified temple recommend holding coaches.

Next year will be a tough year looking at the schedule.

Gunk wrote:

BYU has to decide what it wants to be.



Does it want to compete for national titles or simply be a fun form of entertainment.



If it wants to compete for national titles, we need to be in a P5 conference or mirror a P5 schedule as much as possible so we are in contention for a playoff spot.



If all BYU cares about is providing good entertainment and being somewhat relative then we schedule no more than three P5s. One biggie, Utah, and some other lower-end P5. Fans will have to get over this. We like to think we belong with the big dogs and maybe we just don't.



I don't get the feeling this is what BYU football wants, though. I get the feeling from the whole "schedule anyone, anywhere" mantra that BYU aims to make the playoffs. Fans certainly have those expectations.



If that's the case, BYU needs to invest accordingly.

Yes, BYU has decide what it wants to be. If it wants to play big boy football, great. I can get behind that. But it's up to Holmoe, as AD, to get the kind of funding that can help us narrow the gap with the P5 programs. But he keeps trying to make P5 schedules on a MWC budget. It hasn't worked but it's like he thinks it will at some point.

a1247 wrote:

a1247 wrote:

I don't mind playing 6-7 P5's in a season but it can't be the top teams from every league. I understand the schedule is made years in advance but year in and year out the same teams sit at the top. Instead of USC or Michigan State why not Oregon State or Indiana? Maybe Northwestern or Kansas.



The fans love the thought of playing the best of the best until they lose and then it's why are we scheduling like this. But after a win against a Wisconsin team everyone was like heck ya bring on Alabama (tic)

If your in a P5 conference you play 7-9 P5 teams a year. But your also recruiting P5 talent because your in a P5 conference. Right now BYU is having a hard time not getting P5 talent at the starting position but at the 2nd and 3rd string. BYU is not deep enough to play it week in and week out.

Which is exactly why we have no business scheduling like a P5 program. Especially with a coaching staff that's just not up to the task. Not unless we want to see a whole lotta losing.



I went further back to 1998, when the BCS was instituted - a 20 year sample. Even if you include the less than elite BCS/P5 we have a 30-44 (.406) record. And, again, no wins against anything better than 8-5. Generally speaking, we'll lose to P5 teams 60% of the time.



Going by the stats over the past 20 years, BYU should be scheduling no more than 3 P5 teams a season.

So all you really care about is winning and not caring who it is as long as its a win?

I don't buy that. I remember when BYU was in the WAC & MWC people cried all the time about not getting any respect because of the schedule.



I don't have an idea how to fix this dumpster fire. I want BYU to be considered a P5 quality program. I want winning seasons just as much as anyone but only scheduling 3 P5 teams a year makes those winning season feel hollow and no one is going to consider BYU a P5 program. (Boise State is the perfect example)



I think we both agree that the next few years are going to be hard no matter who's coaching the team. I know we both agree BYU doesn't have the talent to compete with 6-7 P5 teams in 2-3 years and unless the next 2 recruiting classes are gems and most of those gems choose to not go on missions the talent gap isn't going to change.



I also know that 5-8 years ago these types of schedules are exactly what the fan base told TH they wanted. I guess winning against a bunch of G5 teams year in and year out gave this fan base a false sense of reality. And our reality is all those shinny bright winning records where products of lousy competition not greatness. :~(

If we had the kind of coaching that could use superior preparation and scheme to overcome the athletic disadvantages we face, that would be one thing. But we don't.



So BYU needs to find a realistic balance. It doesn't matter if we played 12 P5 teams a year. The losses themselves will make us irrelevant.



Or you can go the Boise State model, which is really the BYU model of old, and play 2-3 P5 teams a year and hope you go undefeated and get to a NY6 game. Because it's not like the playoff is open to us. Anyone who thinks BYU is getting into the current 4-team playoff, even if it's undefeated with half those wins against P5 teams, is dreaming. There will always be enough P5 teams, who are undefeated or with 1 loss, that will be ahead of us in line.



Anyway, I'm also fine with the old model because I think BYU has a unique identity it should embrace. It's why I wouldn't mind it filling up the rest of the schedule with regional G5 opponents like Utah State, Hawaii, and Boise State. Also the Academies. As well as the other Independent teams.



In my opinion, the ideal schedule would have Utah and Notre Dame every year. And maybe one other P5 team. But no more than that.

Conclusion:



Scheduling more P5s won't hurt anything and actually helps a lot--so do it.



Rationale:



1. Given BYU wins only 40% of its P5 games.

2. Given BYU schedules as many as 6 P5s a year, but wins only 2 of them

3. It follows that BYU still can win 4 out of 5 of its remainder to play in a bowl game.

4. Given BYU's bowl opportunities don't change very much, if at all, until they have 1 loss or less

5. It also follows that, in the end, scheduling P5s doesn't really hurt the program, money wise

6. Given that BYU draws more attendance in home games against P5 opponents, and gets a bigger payout from away games against P5 opponents, and draws a bigger ESPN audience in such games

7. It further follows that, win or lose, playing P5 opponents is simply more lucrative for the program



Last of all, if BYU gets a lucky year and makes it to N6 or, Heaven be thanked, the playoffs, the reputation payoff will last for 25 years or more. Totally worth it.



One big question: does playing more P5 teams actually improve our ability to beat P5 teams? Not sure the OPs data shows a trend to support that, but the alternative certainly hasn't helped either.

The problem isn't the schedule. The problem is commitment to winning. BYU needs to start paying real coaches and upgrading facilities and the wins will come. They also need to relax some of the academic restrictions they are putting on athletes. BYU used to put multiple players in the NFL every year and that has come to a screeching halt. 7 P5 opponents in a season is only a problem, like has been said above, if they are all conference title contenders.

I am not for hiring coaches that don't have or can't get a recommend. If BYU is to be run by the church it should have coaches that are members in good standing. There have been exceptions like Fred Davis, but they should remain exceptions. No I haven't forgotten repentance, I use it all the time.



Frankly, I'm for playing schools that pay their coaches approximately what we pay ours. Lavell Edwards type coaches apparently only come along once in a lifetime. There were many coaches that made more than he did but very very few who could out coach him. I miss the days when we had him at the helm but those days are gone.

nuk13 wrote:

I am not for hiring coaches that don't have or can't get a recommend. If BYU is to be run by the church it should have coaches that are members in good standing. There have been exceptions like Fred Davis, but they should remain exceptions. No I haven't forgotten repentance, I use it all the time.

Agreed. Some fans seem to forget the Crowton years and how badly that reflected on BYU, and by extension, the Church. We can't have that.



Get the best LDS HC you can, pay him top dollar, so you can also attract top coordinator talent.

frdbtr wrote:

They also need to relax some of the academic restrictions they are putting on athletes.

This needs to be addressed as much as the honor code. Why does Boise State do so well? Because they have a roaster full of players who had offers to go to Pac 12 schools but couldn't qualify academically. I once heard someone say Boise State acceptance standards makes Utah's look like they are Standford. If you can count to 10 and write your name your getting accepted to BSU.

KingCoug wrote:

I am not for hiring coaches that don't have or can't get a recommend. If BYU is to be run by the church it should have coaches that are members in good standing. There have been exceptions like Fred Davis, but they should remain exceptions. No I haven't forgotten repentance, I use it all the time.

Agreed. Some fans seem to forget the Crowton years and how badly that reflected on BYU, and by extension, the Church. We can't have that.



Get the best LDS HC you can, pay him top dollar, so you can also attract top coordinator talent.

Im pretty sure Crowton had a temple recommend. I say that only because that's the first time I had ever heard of that unwritten rule.

a1247 wrote:

They also need to relax some of the academic restrictions they are putting on athletes.

This needs to be addressed as much as the honor code. Why does Boise State do so well? Because they have a roaster full of players who had offers to go to Pac 12 schools but couldn't qualify academically. I once heard someone say Boise State acceptance standards makes Utah's look like they are Standford. If you can count to 10 and write your name your getting accepted to BSU.

I bet we lose as many athletes because of the academic standards as we do from the honor code.

frdbtr wrote:

frdbtr wrote:

They also need to relax some of the academic restrictions they are putting on athletes.

This needs to be addressed as much as the honor code. Why does Boise State do so well? Because they have a roaster full of players who had offers to go to Pac 12 schools but couldn't qualify academically. I once heard someone say Boise State acceptance standards makes Utah's look like they are Standford. If you can count to 10 and write your name your getting accepted to BSU.

I bet we lose as many athletes because of the academic standards as we do from the honor code.

I'm sure they do. Blake Bortels committed to BYU long before going to Utah because he couldn't qualify academically.

There are 65 power conference teams including Notre Dame. In a given year they can basically be divided in to 3 tiers. The top tier finishes with a 9-4 record or better. In the last 5 years there were 24 P5 teams a year on average who finished with a 9-4 record or better. The middle tier are teams that win 7-8 games (or finish 9-5). Roughly 19 P5 teams a year fit into this category. The bottom tier finishes .500 or below, usually 6 wins or less. There are 22 P5 teams that appear in this tier on average.



BYU's record vs. teams from the ACC, B1G, Big 8/12, Pac, SEC, SWC and major independents like ND otherwise known as P5 teams from 1972-2017



Record vs. top tier 9+ wins: 3-34-1. Home: 1-6 Road: 1-17 Neutral: 1-11-1

Record vs. middle tier 7-8 wins: 18-24. Home: 8-8 Road: 3-8 Neutral: 7-8

Record vs. the bottom tier (6 wins or less): 39-23 Home: 17-8 Road: 17-14 Neutral: 5-1



Our 2018 P5 opponents' average win total over the last 5 years:



@Wisconsin 10.8

@Washington 9.2

@Utah 8

@Arizona 7

Cal 4.8



Programs that show up in our future schedules most recent 5 year win total averages:



Stanford 10

Michigan St. 9.8

USC 9.6

Oregon 8.8

Virginia Tech 8.2

Missouri 7.8

ASU 7.6

Minnesota 7.2

Washington St. 7

NC St. 6.8

Tennessee 6.8

Virginia 3.8

a1247 wrote:

nuk13 wrote:

I am not for hiring coaches that don't have or can't get a recommend. If BYU is to be run by the church it should have coaches that are members in good standing. There have been exceptions like Fred Davis, but they should remain exceptions. No I haven't forgotten repentance, I use it all the time.

Agreed. Some fans seem to forget the Crowton years and how badly that reflected on BYU, and by extension, the Church. We can't have that.



Get the best LDS HC you can, pay him top dollar, so you can also attract top coordinator talent.

Im pretty sure Crowton had a temple recommend. I say that only because that's the first time I had ever heard of that unwritten rule.

And if that stuff could happen with Crowton, what might happen with a non-LDS coach?