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YzzazzI don't how the game is going to go in Seattle, but the only scenarios I can imagine where BYU loses to Washington by 17 points are those where BYU scores no more than a single touchdown. If you think about that for more than 3 seconds, you get really tempted to lay some money down. Consider:
1. BYU has at least two future NFL players in the defensive front seven this year. I'd almost count three because Kafusi could reasonably be counted twice-once on defense and the other on special teams. Besides which, he is is just that good. All American in waiting. Takitaki is right there with him. But they aren't the only two showing well. The whole D-line is impressive.
2. Our corners haven't really been beat downfield this year so far. Considering the competition, that's impressive. Assignments have been missed, but for the most part, none of the P5 teams we played were able to have sustained success going over the top. The speed, or at least the position play, of the corners has been quite good.
3. The linebackers are solid and QBs have to respect the interception threat. Browning won't have an easy time of it.
4. The front seven has been stout against the run. Even in the Loss to Cal, they kept that team to 21 points with multiple stops in the 4th quarter. Truly a shame the offense couldn't capitalize on any of those or that they didn't give Southam a try instead of going for it on 4th in the first quarter. Lesson learned. This isn't going to be a padded stat line for Gaskin.
The bottom line is that BYU's defense is legit. If Washington can hang more than 24 points on them, they will have accomplished something and they probably win the game. But Washington couldn't do better than 27 against ASU, 21 against Utah, and 16 against Auburn. Granted you don't expect them to do much better than that against that competition, but my point is that one little secret that every BYU fan knows by now, is that BYU's defense is at least the equal of those three teams. Washington could easily be held to only 14 points in this game!
So, in the end, it will come down to whether BYU can make enough points on offense. I'm worried about that--oh wait, no I'm not. First off: Squally. Realistically, though, it isn't Squally alone, in fact, the majority of his success is the O-line's doing, so even if he goes down with an injury you've still got Katoa, Burt and even Hadley to carry well through those truck-sized holes the line creates.
Lastly, Mangum is a senior QB who has played well under his potential so far. I'd be surprised if this were his breakout game, but in fact it just might be. He hasn't given them anything to be afraid of so you know they'll discount him in their game planning. But when you consider that he has thrown two beautiful long balls that his receivers dropped over the last two games, you realize he could be due for some amazing stats if a team overlooks him. Hopefully Grimes gives him a shot or two in the game because I'd bet that it will pay off.
Now I am a big fan of the Sagarin index. But BYU's 52 ranking basically says that BYU's Wisconsin game was a total fluke and that the Cal game is more representative of BYU's capabilities. It's true Cal's side-to-side and scheme sets created problems, but the real problems in the Cal game were the offense's inability to convert.
I know the McNeese game isn't where you'd expect to see proof of the opposite, but to me it was. When you consider that the playcalling was just simply a bit too cutesy in the first quarter and that it gave the Cowboy squad a little too much confidence early on, then you realize what happened in that game. It wasn't a hangover or lack of focus. It was everybody trying too hard to razzle-dazzle right at the start. Had they saved all of that for the second quarter, BYU could easily have hung 45-0 on them by 3Q. But truth be told, if that first long pass were caught, and if that reverse play hadn't been bobbled, BYU was right at that score anyway. I don't think it is a stretch to expect BYU to outperform the anemic ASU offense (who was able to score 20 points on the Huskies). If BYU scores 21 or more, I'd expect them to win the game.
I think this adds up to a BYU team that is getting better each game, not a team that plays up and down.
I can only guesstimate that Sagarin's rankings weigh heavily on QB stats and that this is the biggest reason for the disparity between the AP poll and Jeff's computers. I think the AP writers who saw the Wisconsin game see what the computers can't. BYU didn't sneak up on Wisconsin. They powered through them. That's not a thing that goes away after one week. Despite the fears of fans in the first quarter, it didn't go away last weekend either.
I'm calling an upset here, or at least BYU covering the spread. If Mangum finds his groove and connects downfield, it will actually be BYU by two touchdowns.
1. BYU has at least two future NFL players in the defensive front seven this year. I'd almost count three because Kafusi could reasonably be counted twice-once on defense and the other on special teams. Besides which, he is is just that good. All American in waiting. Takitaki is right there with him. But they aren't the only two showing well. The whole D-line is impressive.
2. Our corners haven't really been beat downfield this year so far. Considering the competition, that's impressive. Assignments have been missed, but for the most part, none of the P5 teams we played were able to have sustained success going over the top. The speed, or at least the position play, of the corners has been quite good.
3. The linebackers are solid and QBs have to respect the interception threat. Browning won't have an easy time of it.
4. The front seven has been stout against the run. Even in the Loss to Cal, they kept that team to 21 points with multiple stops in the 4th quarter. Truly a shame the offense couldn't capitalize on any of those or that they didn't give Southam a try instead of going for it on 4th in the first quarter. Lesson learned. This isn't going to be a padded stat line for Gaskin.
The bottom line is that BYU's defense is legit. If Washington can hang more than 24 points on them, they will have accomplished something and they probably win the game. But Washington couldn't do better than 27 against ASU, 21 against Utah, and 16 against Auburn. Granted you don't expect them to do much better than that against that competition, but my point is that one little secret that every BYU fan knows by now, is that BYU's defense is at least the equal of those three teams. Washington could easily be held to only 14 points in this game!
So, in the end, it will come down to whether BYU can make enough points on offense. I'm worried about that--oh wait, no I'm not. First off: Squally. Realistically, though, it isn't Squally alone, in fact, the majority of his success is the O-line's doing, so even if he goes down with an injury you've still got Katoa, Burt and even Hadley to carry well through those truck-sized holes the line creates.
Lastly, Mangum is a senior QB who has played well under his potential so far. I'd be surprised if this were his breakout game, but in fact it just might be. He hasn't given them anything to be afraid of so you know they'll discount him in their game planning. But when you consider that he has thrown two beautiful long balls that his receivers dropped over the last two games, you realize he could be due for some amazing stats if a team overlooks him. Hopefully Grimes gives him a shot or two in the game because I'd bet that it will pay off.
Now I am a big fan of the Sagarin index. But BYU's 52 ranking basically says that BYU's Wisconsin game was a total fluke and that the Cal game is more representative of BYU's capabilities. It's true Cal's side-to-side and scheme sets created problems, but the real problems in the Cal game were the offense's inability to convert.
I know the McNeese game isn't where you'd expect to see proof of the opposite, but to me it was. When you consider that the playcalling was just simply a bit too cutesy in the first quarter and that it gave the Cowboy squad a little too much confidence early on, then you realize what happened in that game. It wasn't a hangover or lack of focus. It was everybody trying too hard to razzle-dazzle right at the start. Had they saved all of that for the second quarter, BYU could easily have hung 45-0 on them by 3Q. But truth be told, if that first long pass were caught, and if that reverse play hadn't been bobbled, BYU was right at that score anyway. I don't think it is a stretch to expect BYU to outperform the anemic ASU offense (who was able to score 20 points on the Huskies). If BYU scores 21 or more, I'd expect them to win the game.
I think this adds up to a BYU team that is getting better each game, not a team that plays up and down.
I can only guesstimate that Sagarin's rankings weigh heavily on QB stats and that this is the biggest reason for the disparity between the AP poll and Jeff's computers. I think the AP writers who saw the Wisconsin game see what the computers can't. BYU didn't sneak up on Wisconsin. They powered through them. That's not a thing that goes away after one week. Despite the fears of fans in the first quarter, it didn't go away last weekend either.
I'm calling an upset here, or at least BYU covering the spread. If Mangum finds his groove and connects downfield, it will actually be BYU by two touchdowns.