Is it Possible that Wisconsin is just bad this year?

Awesome win! Been watching BYU for five decades and not seen anything like this game. BYU with big guys dominating the trenches against other big guys and winning on the ground. Amazing.



Problem: it might not be so amazing.

Arizona isn't all that great, and Cal isn't either. Granted neither team is BAD, but they aren't going to be ranked this year. Arizona isn't even getting votes. The AP writers saw the game and ranked BYU 25 because they saw what we saw. BYU was every bit the equal or better of the Wisconsin squad on the lines and as a result, they looked solid all game. Didn't appear to be a fluke win. All that rests on a single assumption, however, that Wisconsin is really that good. What if they aren't? What if Wisconsin, much like Michigan State a few years ago, goes on to have a lackluster year? Then everyone will realize the amazement was simply a quirk of perception.



This could actually be true, but of course, I hope it isn't, so I want to write my rationale for why I think it is and see if anyone in CC land can make compelling arguments to overturn this logic. Wisconsin had two particular problems, that I could see:



1- Their defense is actually "inexperienced" this year, so repeated the ESPN game callers several times. How much did that play in? If the Badgers do have a weak defense, then they will surely struggle through their Big10 schedule.



2. Hornibrook has a great stance, but was surprisingly easy to rattle. The number of times BYU's defensive rush made him hurry really surprised me. Is he that vulnerable? If so, perhaps he'll botch more games along the way.



We all want to believe that Wisconsin will win out and vie for a playoff spot because they are amazing and that just adds to how amazing BYU has become, but that's a bit of a stretch considering the performance of the past two weeks.



I love how solid BYU looks in all three games. CLEARLY this is not anyone's father's BYU! CLEARLY Sitake is vindicated for firing Detmer, much as that pained longtime fans who have a personally autographed poster of Ty Detmer hanging on a wall in their home for 30 years--ahem. TMI. I wish Sitake hadn't gone for that first 4th down play against Cal but had kicked a field goal instead because BYU might have cracked the top 10 yesterday if so.



But the problem is that if BYU is THAT great, they should have plowed over Cal and stopped that running QB of theirs--who admittedly won the game for them. I'm a bit concerned about playing in Seattle, because I remember when BYU beat UCLA back in 1985 and then went up to Seattle with the nation's longest winning streak in tact. I remember sitting in the Marriot Center that was at least 3/4 full of students and fans watching BYU get hammered all over the big screen. I remember my date leaving early (I obviously don't remember her name). I don't want to relive that memory.



Utah lost to Washington in a game so ugly that I'm certain both sides were happy it started at 10 pm Eastern time. If BYU has already built itself to where it wants to be, then neither team will pose a challenge. But if Wisconsin isn't as great as everyone thinks, then BYU hasn't fully arrived yet and they are in for a tooth-and-nail fight in Seattle--one I think they'll come away from quite bruised.



Please, do like BYU players did. Prove me wrong!

Enjoy the win, brother.

As is the case with most things in life, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Wisconsin is probably not the playoff contender many thought they would be, but I'd be shocked if they end the season outside the top 25. Also, BYU is obviously not a top 10 team. I'm still not sure we're a top 25 team, but we are certainly better than we were last year. Which, at this point, I'm happy with.

hawkwing wrote:

Enjoy the win, brother.

+1

I was not impressed with Wisconsin so I would have to say we are not that good. I would not put us in the top 25 yet. The Washington game will give more insight. What time will that game be?



Fox 5:30 PST. Maybe I will go to that game.

Probably a good thing they lost to Cal. Gave them the extra motivation to practice harder, play better and beat Wisconsin.

I just hope Wisconsin wins the rest of their games this year. I would love to see them in the CFP. Hopefully the Badgers got a wakeup call from BYU.

Yes.

But they're probably a pretty good team. I think they'll go 8-4, with a good shot still at 9-3. If they beat Iowa I think they go 9-3.

Yzzazz wrote:

Awesome win! Been watching BYU for five decades and not seen anything like this game. BYU with big guys dominating the trenches against other big guys and winning on the ground. Amazing.



Problem: it might not be so amazing.

Arizona isn't all that great, and Cal isn't either. Granted neither team is BAD, but they aren't going to be ranked this year. Arizona isn't even getting votes. The AP writers saw the game and ranked BYU 25 because they saw what we saw. BYU was every bit the equal or better of the Wisconsin squad on the lines and as a result, they looked solid all game. Didn't appear to be a fluke win. All that rests on a single assumption, however, that Wisconsin is really that good. What if they aren't? What if Wisconsin, much like Michigan State a few years ago, goes on to have a lackluster year? Then everyone will realize the amazement was simply a quirk of perception.



This could actually be true, but of course, I hope it isn't, so I want to write my rationale for why I think it is and see if anyone in CC land can make compelling arguments to overturn this logic. Wisconsin had two particular problems, that I could see:



1- Their defense is actually "inexperienced" this year, so repeated the ESPN game callers several times. How much did that play in? If the Badgers do have a weak defense, then they will surely struggle through their Big10 schedule.



2. Hornibrook has a great stance, but was surprisingly easy to rattle. The number of times BYU's defensive rush made him hurry really surprised me. Is he that vulnerable? If so, perhaps he'll botch more games along the way.



We all want to believe that Wisconsin will win out and vie for a playoff spot because they are amazing and that just adds to how amazing BYU has become, but that's a bit of a stretch considering the performance of the past two weeks.



I love how solid BYU looks in all three games. CLEARLY this is not anyone's father's BYU! CLEARLY Sitake is vindicated for firing Detmer, much as that pained longtime fans who have a personally autographed poster of Ty Detmer hanging on a wall in their home for 30 years--ahem. TMI. I wish Sitake hadn't gone for that first 4th down play against Cal but had kicked a field goal instead because BYU might have cracked the top 10 yesterday if so.



But the problem is that if BYU is THAT great, they should have plowed over Cal and stopped that running QB of theirs--who admittedly won the game for them. I'm a bit concerned about playing in Seattle, because I remember when BYU beat UCLA back in 1985 and then went up to Seattle with the nation's longest winning streak in tact. I remember sitting in the Marriot Center that was at least 3/4 full of students and fans watching BYU get hammered all over the big screen. I remember my date leaving early (I obviously don't remember her name). I don't want to relive that memory.



Utah lost to Washington in a game so ugly that I'm certain both sides were happy it started at 10 pm Eastern time. If BYU has already built itself to where it wants to be, then neither team will pose a challenge. But if Wisconsin isn't as great as everyone thinks, then BYU hasn't fully arrived yet and they are in for a tooth-and-nail fight in Seattle--one I think they'll come away from quite bruised.



Please, do like BYU players did. Prove me wrong!

Someday I hope our fanbase can overcome our collective low self esteem when it comes to our teams. We beat a ranked team on the road. It doesn't automatically mean they're terrible. Ok, so maybe they're not a CFP team. But they're probably a bowl team. Beating one of those on the road is nice considering where we were last year. BYU's defense is pretty good. The overall game played by BYU was solid.

Don't forget about the curse of losing to BYU!



Wisconsin WAS a great team up until losing to BYU and now they'll go on a downward spiral just to make our SOS look bad and take the shine off of the win...



/s

I think we learned from Arizona that sometimes teams aren't as good as we think they are.



Wisconsin's QB didn't look good, and their WRs didn't show up. But we know that their OL and lead RB are both very, VERY good.



Wisconsin is pretty consistently elite, with a great defense. This year, only 4 defensive starters returned, and then they lost their best LB this game to injury. So maybe it is a down year for them.



It helps that Wisconsin was untested, and probably wasn't afraid of BYU. And it helps that BYU already played at Arizona, and that we were coming off of a painful loss and were angry.



I also think this was a good match-up for us, facing a running team again like Arizona. Back-up wildcat option QBs not included.



We'll learn more about Wisconsin after they play Iowa, and more about us after we play McNeese and Washington. Washington seems to be a worse match-up, as they simply have more speed.

As I said in another thread, I think them underestimating us certainly helped. And I think it's unlikely Wisconsin will be a playoff team as some predicted. But they could still end up being a top 10 team. Don't buy too much into the P5 elitist thinking that anytime a G5 upsets a P5, it's because the P5 just sucks that year.

KingCoug wrote:

As I said in another thread, I think them underestimating us certainly helped. And I think it's unlikely Wisconsin will be a playoff team as some predicted. But they could still end up being a top 10 team. Don't buy too much into the P5 elitist thinking that anytime a G5 upsets a P5, it's because the P5 just sucks that year.

We should also remember that as an independent not called Notre Dame that we basically intentionally play outside the whole CFP/P5/G5 system. So all the stuff around measuring SOS, qualify wins, etc., doesn't mean anything regarding our fate. Sure, a NY6 bowl might take us if we don't lose another, but that's highly unlikely. We just play games. Beating Wisconsin on the road, which is a team that hasn't lost to a non-conference opponent at home in like 10 years, is a good win. Let's not automatically downplay it because it's us. Utah fans do that enough for us already. We don't need to join in. They may not be a CFP contender but they're not terrible. And even if they were, well, we still won.

Mars wrote:

I think we learned from Arizona that sometimes teams aren't as good as we think they are.



Wisconsin's QB didn't look good, and their WRs didn't show up. But we know that their OL and lead RB are both very, VERY good.



Wisconsin is pretty consistently elite, with a great defense. This year, only 4 defensive starters returned, and then they lost their best LB this game to injury. So maybe it is a down year for them.



It helps that Wisconsin was untested, and probably wasn't afraid of BYU. And it helps that BYU already played at Arizona, and that we were coming off of a painful loss and were angry.



I also think this was a good match-up for us, facing a running team again like Arizona. Back-up wildcat option QBs not included.



We'll learn more about Wisconsin after they play Iowa, and more about us after we play McNeese and Washington. Washington seems to be a worse match-up, as they simply have more speed.

Hornibrook is the same QB that lit us up in Provo last year. Jonathan Taylor rushed for almost 2,000 yards and is a Heisman candidate. Finished #6 in the Heisman voting in 2017. Easily pre-season top-5 in just about every analysis. On pace for over 2,000 yards this year. They returned their entire oline from last year, including 3 All Americans - every one of them on the Outland trophy watch list and NFL draft board.



I agree that this turned out to be a good matchup-up for the Cougars. We had a great game plan and fantastic execution. This was a big win.

Question. Sean Walker from KSL noted: "...and BYU blocked a potential game-tying field goal with 41 seconds left..."



That's the first I had heard anyone mention that the last field goal attempt by the Badgers had been touched. Anyone else?



https://www.ksl.com/article/46391576/canadas-2-tds-southams-boot-help-byu-stun-no-6-wisconsin-24-21

Other stats I saw:



Wisconsin had the #2 defense last year.



They were #6 in rushing coming into this game.

YNot wrote:



Hornibrook is the same QB that lit us up in Provo last year. Jonathan Taylor rushed for almost 2,000 yards and is a Heisman candidate. Finished #6 in the Heisman voting in 2017. Easily pre-season top-5 in just about every analysis. On pace for over 2,000 yards this year. They returned their entire oline from last year, including 3 All Americans - every one of them on the Outland trophy watch list and NFL draft board.

Mars wrote:

Other stats I saw:



Wisconsin had the #2 defense last year.



They were #6 in rushing coming into this game.

These are good points. It gives me hope.



The reason I think this matters is not because I want to discount the value of the win. It is what everyone has said it was, one of the biggest in school history. The bigger reason is to determine what kind of predictor this win is for the season, and more importantly, the program. Will the offensive coordinator continue to make good play calls and study hard to prep adequately for upcoming opponents? Has the strength and conditioning staff truly improved and made a quantum leap forward? Will BYU actually be able to compete in the top 25 stage?



As much as BYU fans have ever hoped these things would be true, they NEVER really were for any sustainable period. Flashes: 1984, 1996, 2006, but nothing that continued and all revolved around a senior QB.



What we saw in the Wisconsin game appeared to be a whole new level of play. The only thing we ever saw that was close to it, in my opinion, was the Oklahoma game, but the brightness of that fizzled. Injuries, change of personnel, poor coaching in clutch moments are what have defined BYU over the years. We saw no indication of that in this game (minimal injury in a HIGHLY physical game and the game didn't rest on the senior QB though he certainly played his part well) and it would be amazing to think we might be able to expect more of that in the future.



Obviously, we can't know for sure that a sea-change has truly occurred, this week, but a win at Washington would make you begin to wonder. We won't really know until next year (or maybe this year if injury strikes) and a new QB and RB show up. I am very impressed with the idea that our O-line put on an average of 30 pounds of muscle to be ready for this season. I think that shows outstanding foresight by the staff and bodes well for Kalani's future.

No team looks great in a loss. If their offense had run up the score and lost, their defense would be suspect. If their defense held us to 3 points and we won, they’d be universally panned as terrible. You can really only look at the adjacent games and overall record to guess accurately whether a team is any good.

This conversation is what drives me crazy about our fans. Last week we had posters who were saying we should not be scheduling teams like Wisconsin and should rejoin the MWC and fill our schedule with teams like Weber and SUU. So now we be a ligit perennial top 10 team on the road and it's...well they really arn't that good. I couldn't be more thrilled with this team. Sure we lost to Cal and could have won that game but I am just happy we actually have an offense that can move the ball and a defense that can come up with a stop when needed.



So, just enjoy the game!!!!



Go Cougs



L Hatton

Louisville, KY

Wisconsin will not be in the playoff....because we beat them. But this team was legit. If they win out and win their conference, they would end up being one of the best teams BYU ever beat (Miami will probably always hold that title). They will probably end up the year with another loss or two but will end the year in the top 25 which will still be a great win. Don't worry, they are a very good team that we played at the right time with the right attitude and beat. This was a really quality win.

The key thing to remember, is no team BYU has ever beaten has ended up going undefeated. ;)