The Pivotal Nature of the Arizona Game

So, I have been thinking about this for a bit (aka, all summer). It is TVRC's opinion that the Arizona opener is the biggest opener since 2009 (Oklahoma). By "biggest opener" I mean some combination of quality opponent and tone-setting for the season. Some of the others like Nebraska (2015) or AZ (2016) are similar, but the tone-setting nature feels different here.



Let's say BYU loses in 32 days. It would feel like a holdover from last season, and it would make the schedule feel harder. I think opening with a L would then make taking on Cal in week 2 even harder. Then, if that one doesn't go well either, heading to Wisconsin in week 3 would start to get ugly. We have a shot at a 7+ win season and a bowl, but this Arizona game is Trump-esque yuuuuuuuge. I think the season's success hinges on this opener more than ever.



Let's say BYU wins in 32 days. The team would feel the confidence to take on the rest of the schedule and compete in every game. I think that we would play hard anyway with everyone, but I do think there is a better shot at a surprise win, which would be 1 or 2 of Wisconsin, BSU, Washington, and yes Utah. If the season starts well at Arizona, it means the offense is clicking out of the gate, and can adjust and refine as the season progresses. It means the team has the confidence to really compete on the highest level. It means parity with the P5 and not just sporadic ability to keep the games close.



I do think BYU has a shot at an 8 win season. If BYU gets Arizona, then THEY WILL GET CAL. I am blue goggled here, and that's okay because I love my Cougs. I think the first half of the Arizona game will be better than we think, and some scripted series of plays will help a lot. I think we will have 17 or 21 points at the half. These are just thinks that I think.



BYU will make it to a bowl. When BYU is down, they are not down for long. I think they do pull off 2 wins of the 5 P5s on the schedule. I think they have an honest shot at BSU also, my only rationales being my own optimism and the fact the Donkeys will have to adjust to Air Force's option and get beat up doing so in the week prior.



Let's make it a good 2018! Hit em hard on defense, and keep the ball moving on offense! Gotta make Khalil Tate rattled in the opener. Looking at Corbin and Sione to make it happen. Gotta get one INT in the first half. Looking at Troy, Dayan, or Zayne to make that one happen. Gooooooo Cougars!!!

I hope you're right. My big fear's are that the defense will struggle and with the offense getting used to another system and new players trying to fit in we won't be able to keep up with Arizona's scoring.

Beating Arizona would be very nice. They're favored by 14 or so.

If BYU scores 21 points the entire game against AZ, they will have over achieved their average opener point totals over the last few years.

To have a good season BYU must beat either Arizona or Cal. Both would be a good start.



I have a feeling we'll be able to gauge how the season will go pretty much on game 1.

hawkwing wrote:

To have a good season BYU must beat either Arizona or Cal. Both would be a good start.



I have a feeling we'll be able to gauge how the season will go pretty much on game 1.

We certainly did last year. After the debacle that we showed in the win over that winless FBS team, I knew BYU's offense was in trouble unless they were sandbagging and it turned out they were not. BYU's offense is going to have to have one of the most monumental turn arounds in BYU football history to get any wins against any of the P5 teams that we play this year and I, personally, don't see it. I hope that I am wrong.

The Arizona game sets the tone for the rest of the season. If the Cougs lose, they're in real trouble. Because Cal is not going to be a pushover in the 2nd game. They return a ton of their players last year and are the type of athletic and fast team that usually gives BYU fits on both sides of the ball.



Lose those first two games and the Cougars are staring 0-3 right in the face as Wisconsin is they type of team and game that could easily be very similar to LSU last year.



Sure BYU does come home w/ McNeese St but then it's likely another beat down on the road to Washington. So Cougs would then be 1-4 before that three game home stretch of Utah St, Hawaii and Northern Illinois.



You know the Aggies will be up for that game and will BYU have any confidence heading into it? How healthy will the team be? Hawaii is poor and should be a win. But the Huskies from Northern Illinois are good. Does BYU come out of that stretch at 4-4 or do they drop one (UNI) or gasp! even two (USU)!?



If it's 4-4, BYU has a chance to bowling if they win their final home game (vs New Mexico St) but will still need to find a road win (@ Boise, @ UMass, and @ Utah).



But if it's anything worse than 4-4, odds aren't likely for winning 3 of those final 4 games.



BUT, if BYU can pull out that Arizona game, then they probably come home confident and get Cal. Sure, they drop the Wisconsin game and probably the Washington game as well. But then they're coming into that three-game home stretch at 3-2. They probably get all three. And I'll take BYU's chances up in Boise if they're 6-2 going into it. And then, could Cougs be heading up to SLC at 9-2?



It all starts with that yuuuuuuge game against the Wildcats.

I will listen to the first half somewhere. If its going well I will keep listening if its a debacle.I will be gone and maybe check in a few times during the season to see how bad it has become.That is how fickle my fandom has become. I honestly am just not feeling any optmism and the sad part is I really dont care.

On a little more positive note last time I bought a new car was the weekend of UCLA 59-0 thrashing and I listened on the way home. I need a new car so maybe thats what I will do the Arizona game weekend.

I agree with TVRC...this is surely a pivotal game. And likely a very difficult game, at that. Mr. Khalil Tate is an elite athlete and growing, learning the system. J.J. Taylor is a small 5'7 RB who is lightning quick and shifty. The Wildcats also have 2 excellent linebackers. Will be very tough to win this one...but we need it VERY badly to start the season right....

BYU needs it BADLY.

Makes me think they'll get throttled.

I agree with the OP that this season opener has more potential to influence the trajectory of the season than any other in recent memory--including Oklahoma. Last season was that bad and the team psyche desperately needs to establish a break from that tail-spinning trajectory.



However, I think we'll only get partway there. I think the Offense will show well. Not because I have confidence in any of the QBs (pick your poison--opening with a true frosh, twice-blanked Mangum, or lose-at-home-to-UMASS Critchelow), but because a huge part of those horrible games was because of porous play by the Offensive Line, Karoma excepted (no push at all against Michigan or LSU; and what, five sacks against UMASS??).



Grimes may not have been an OC before, but he has demonstrated mastery in coaching up an OLine, and with him as the OC and his clone as the position coach, I expect to see significant improvement especially among the guards. It reminds me of when Anae was starting out; Anae was a former O lineman, and was a solid O Line coach, and he had Grimes as his position coach. That doubling up on OLine coaching ability is reflected in the current situation. Anae's tenure with Grimes as OLine coach was pretty solid.



So, I have reason to believe the Offense will be respectable.



But I don't think BYU will beat Arizona.



BYU's defense has not made any notable improvements. They've shuffled the best players out of the positions they had experience with. That may payoff if doing it with just one or two players, but in an opener where nearly all of the guys on the field for defense were either not on the field last year or were in a different position, and you have a high likelihood of the defense looking lost. Add to that the volatility of a guy like Tate and the lack of do-your-job discipline, and I think Arizona wins this one going away.

My prediction: 54-27 to Arizona.



The next week against Cal will be much closer. 24-21, but I can't say who will end up on top. Probably Cal, if I'm being honest.



Ultimately, I think having winning regular season will ride on two games: NIU and USU. We have to win them both. I predict we lose 1. That means we go into the last game of the season with 5 wins. I think Whittingham then beats his protege and costs him his job.



So, I think we need to steal one against Cal to provide insurance against the NIU/USU stretch.

Right-on, CrimsonCoug. I especially agree with you regarding NIU and USU. The NIU Huskies will field one of the best defenses BYU will face this season. And the boys from Logan have nearly the whole defense back. These are NOT easy games. Could lose 1 or both....

CrimsonCoug wrote:

I agree with the OP that this season opener has more potential to influence the trajectory of the season than any other in recent memory--including Oklahoma. Last season was that bad and the team psyche desperately needs to establish a break from that tail-spinning trajectory.



However, I think we'll only get partway there. I think the Offense will show well. Not because I have confidence in any of the QBs (pick your poison--opening with a true frosh, twice-blanked Mangum, or lose-at-home-to-UMASS Critchelow), but because a huge part of those horrible games was because of porous play by the Offensive Line, Karoma excepted (no push at all against Michigan or LSU; and what, five sacks against UMASS??).



Grimes may not have been an OC before, but he has demonstrated mastery in coaching up an OLine, and with him as the OC and his clone as the position coach, I expect to see significant improvement especially among the guards. It reminds me of when Anae was starting out; Anae was a former O lineman, and was a solid O Line coach, and he had Grimes as his position coach. That doubling up on OLine coaching ability is reflected in the current situation. Anae's tenure with Grimes as OLine coach was pretty solid.



So, I have reason to believe the Offense will be respectable.



But I don't think BYU will beat Arizona.



BYU's defense has not made any notable improvements. They've shuffled the best players out of the positions they had experience with. That may payoff if doing it with just one or two players, but in an opener where nearly all of the guys on the field for defense were either not on the field last year or were in a different position, and you have a high likelihood of the defense looking lost. Add to that the volatility of a guy like Tate and the lack of do-your-job discipline, and I think Arizona wins this one going away.

My prediction: 54-27 to Arizona.



The next week against Cal will be much closer. 24-21, but I can't say who will end up on top. Probably Cal, if I'm being honest.



Ultimately, I think having winning regular season will ride on two games: NIU and USU. We have to win them both. I predict we lose 1. That means we go into the last game of the season with 5 wins. I think Whittingham then beats his protege and costs him his job.



So, I think we need to steal one against Cal to provide insurance against the NIU/USU stretch.

I agree the offense will be respectable. In fact I think it will be good if they can keep the injuries down.



On the other hand your prediction of a 54 to 27 loss to Arizona is laughable. You seem to forget that the BYU defense in the first 5 games last year held the opponent to an average of 17 points a game. then the injuries and the poor performance of the offense came along and sucked out any hope of the team winning many games.



I think believe BYU will win 27-17 and plays Cal to a 3 point or less game due to the fact that BYU's defense has always started hot and played well in the first 5 games since Bronco became the DC and then the HC. Coupled with the fact that Arizona isn't very good and Cal is an early game for them. the fact is I see BYU having more trouble with Cal than with Arizona despite the Cal game being in Provo. Then there is the fact that the last 3 times we played Arizona BYU won 2 out the 3 games and all were decided by 3 points or less.

My buddy started off a sentence this morning "If we can only start the season 2-0..." and my eyeballs rolled out of my head and my faith is gone help me

Mars wrote:

My buddy started off a sentence this morning "If we can only start the season 2-0..." and my eyeballs rolled out of my head and my faith is gone help me

Makes 2 of us. My father in law was talking how he thought BYU could beat AZ and cal. I just stopped listening.

TheDean wrote:
Then there is the fact that the last 3 times we played Arizona BYU won 2 out the 3 games and all were decided by 3 points or less.

Then there's the fact that BYU won a National Championship in 1984--34 years ago, so we're due to win one this season.

snoscythe wrote:

Then there is the fact that the last 3 times we played Arizona BYU won 2 out the 3 games and all were decided by 3 points or less.

Then there's the fact that BYU won a National Championship in 1984--34 years ago, so we're due to win one this season.

The national championship is too far back, but the last 3 Arizona games were in the last 8 years with the last one about 3 seasons ago. Nice Try but your comparison fails the giggle test.

TheDean wrote:

TheDean wrote:
Then there is the fact that the last 3 times we played Arizona BYU won 2 out the 3 games and all were decided by 3 points or less.

Then there's the fact that BYU won a National Championship in 1984--34 years ago, so we're due to win one this season.

The national championship is too far back, but the last 3 Arizona games were in the last 8 years with the last one about 3 seasons ago. Nice Try but your comparison fails the giggle test.

I could be wrong but I believe his point is that at least two of those "recent" games three are with completely different coaches and none of the same players.

ABYUFAN wrote:

snoscythe wrote:

Then there is the fact that the last 3 times we played Arizona BYU won 2 out the 3 games and all were decided by 3 points or less.

Then there's the fact that BYU won a National Championship in 1984--34 years ago, so we're due to win one this season.

The national championship is too far back, but the last 3 Arizona games were in the last 8 years with the last one about 3 seasons ago. Nice Try but your comparison fails the giggle test.

I could be wrong but I believe his point is that at least two of those "recent" games three are with completely different coaches and none of the same players.

....for both BYU and Arizona.