What We've Learned

Pretty good analysis at Lawless Republic: https://lawlessrepublic.com/2017/12/11/byu-basketball-three-takeaways-first-10/



No. 1: BYU basketball plays… defense? Even though we are in the exact same defensive efficiency at #82 it just feels and looks better.



In general I agree and even though we got a key defensive stop against Weber St. there's no way that should have been a close game. There's also this sentiment that we're defending really well against the opposing guards which will fair us well in the WCC. However, we've been scorched by Harding (Weber St.) with 29 points (10 points above his ave) on 12/20 1/5 4/4 shooting and by Scott (Niagara) with 36 points (11 above his ave) on 13/24 5/12 5/9 shooting. Yes, both those games were wins, but it goes against the mantra that we can handle the guard strong WCC.



No. 2: Dalton Nixon is going to contribute in a big way. The secondary unit had major questions coming into the season, specifically about Hardnett and Dastrup. Nixon's hustle play is firing up his teammates.



My take - Hardnett and Nixon have been pleasant surprises but Dastrup is still a mystery and I wouldn't call our bench deep. Cannon becoming eligible helps but if we get into foul trouble as a team I'm worried.



No. 3: BYU basketball is capable of making a run. Potentially we're looking at a 20-4 record when we host the Zags. However, if we end up with 6 losses we're a bubble team.



My take - 20-4 looks very pleasing to the eyes, but I'm going to say that with 6 losses we're a bubble team at best and probably a lot closer to a 3 seed NIT. We need 2 marquee wins and no bad losses. When I post our RPI breakdown every weekend the only record that really matters come dance time (IMO) is the vs top 100. So even though we're 8-2 right now we're really just 2-2 with 0 top 25 wins and 0 bad losses.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html



RPI Forecast predicts BYU gets swept by both Gonzaga and St. Mary's, loses two additional games, and finishes with a RPI around 73. That would definitely be an NIT season.



Beating Utah would be a huge step.

Mars wrote:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html



RPI Forecast predicts BYU gets swept by both Gonzaga and St. Mary's, loses two additional games, and finishes with a RPI around 73. That would definitely be an NIT season.



Beating Utah would be a huge step.

Utah = KenPom #59

snoscythe wrote:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html



RPI Forecast predicts BYU gets swept by both Gonzaga and St. Mary's, loses two additional games, and finishes with a RPI around 73. That would definitely be an NIT season.



Beating Utah would be a huge step.

Utah = KenPom #59

It's funny because ESPN (which has been way off all season thus far) gives BYU a 66% chance of winning.

Mars wrote:

Mars wrote:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html



RPI Forecast predicts BYU gets swept by both Gonzaga and St. Mary's, loses two additional games, and finishes with a RPI around 73. That would definitely be an NIT season.



Beating Utah would be a huge step.

Utah = KenPom #59

It's funny because ESPN (which has been way off all season thus far) gives BYU a 66% chance of winning.

They're trolling us.

If BYU wins Saturday they will find a way to get themselves into the NCAA tournament this season just like most other Rose teams have done.



If BYU loses, it will be much harder.

snoscythe wrote:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html



RPI Forecast predicts BYU gets swept by both Gonzaga and St. Mary's, loses two additional games, and finishes with a RPI around 73. That would definitely be an NIT season.



Beating Utah would be a huge step.

Utah = KenPom #59

BTW, what's BYU? I think we were somewhere around #69 last I checked.

Mars wrote:

Mars wrote:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html



RPI Forecast predicts BYU gets swept by both Gonzaga and St. Mary's, loses two additional games, and finishes with a RPI around 73. That would definitely be an NIT season.



Beating Utah would be a huge step.

Utah = KenPom #59

BTW, what's BYU? I think we were somewhere around #69 last I checked.

#71 as of this moment.



https://kenpom.com/

As much as I hate losing to Utah, I hate losing to the likes of Pepperdine, LMU, and Portland more.



That said, I hope we win. Go Cougs!

I think the biggest difference in the defense this year is we're playing a lot more man defense.



We relied heavily on the zone in years past. Playing man gives a greater impression of defense because you see players moving around more and following opponents as opposed to moving around within a designated area. I don't know...

We did play more man than zone last year, but it was often a sagging man that fans often confuse as a zone.

Let's talk a bit about defense:



Scoring Defense

2017 - 68.9 points/game

2016 - 74.3 points/game



Defense Efficiency

2017 - .977 (121st)

2016 - .96 (50th)



2017 Opponent's 3P Percentage (1st 13 games):

MVSU - 35.3%

Princeton - 36.8

UT - 60%

Niagara - 33%

Alabama - 38.5%

UMASS - 35.7%

UVU - 12.5%

USU - 32%

Illinois - 29.2%

Weber - 25%

Utah - 22.7%

Idaho - 34.8%

Average: 30.4%



2016 Opponent's 3P Percentage (1st 13 games):

Princeton - 28.6%

Coppin - 17.2%

Coastal Carolina - 19.2%

Saint Louis - 23.1%

Valparasiso - 39.1%

UVU - 48.6%

USU - 26.3%

USC - 42.9%

Weber - 20.8%

Colorado - 24.1%

Illinois - 38.5%

Idaho - 31.3%

CSU Bakersfield - 30%

Average: 30%



People talk about the defense being better. It is...sort of. The biggest difference from last year is in Scoring Defense. We're allowing fewer points compared to last season. That's about it.



Perimeter defense seems to be better this season (probably due to the tighter man defense) but teams are shooting about the same against us.

BYU is 0-6 in OOC games the last 2 years where the opponent shot better than 37% from 3-point range. 0-2 this year, 0-4 last year. Undefeated in every other OOC game.



Damn that Arlington game was ugly this season! Same as last season. Good thing it seemed fixed by the UVU rematch.

Arlington was definitely the outlier this season. Take Arlington out, and we've been fairly consistent at defending the three this year.



Shooting 60% from 3 is just insane too. Sure we broke down on defense, Arlington was hot.

A more telling stat than just 3pt % would be how many 3pt shots we have allowed to be taken. Is our perimeter defense allowing fewer shots?

coachK wrote:

A more telling stat than just 3pt % would be how many 3pt shots we have allowed to be taken. Is our perimeter defense allowing fewer shots?

Through 12 games this year, we've allowed 239 three point shots by our opponents. They've made 80. They're shooting .335 through 12 games.



Through 12 games last year, we allowed 325 three point shots by our opponents. They made 100. They shot .308 through 12 games.

Seems like this discussion needs the stats for possessions per game and points per possession.

My sense is that some of these differences dealt with pace of play being faster last year with a lot of chucking by our guys early in the shot clock; which leads to fast breaks and higher shooting percentage.

So, while the D seems better this year, last year looked better statistically but same or worse than this year.

As far as the stats are concerned, they don't tell the whole story as far as the defense this year. I watched last years team from the beginning and it seemed like they got worse as the year progressed, the team didn't improve, it regressed, with the exception of the Gonzaga game which was as much of a head scratcher as losing to UVU. This years team contests everything, nothing is coming easy for other teams, thus the stat of holding opponents under 70 points. They also play at a slower pace than last year. This years team passes the ball much better and works the ball all over the half court and usually gets better shots. There is a reason this team has the best record at this point that it has had since Jimmer's team. Of course our schedule isn't as hard but this team is also younger than that team was as well. IMO, they will be competitive in conference this year. We may not win the conference but this team gives me more hope for that to happen than any other team we've taken into this conference.