What would BYU's record have been had they played the season in reverse?

What if THIS had been the schedule?



at Hawaii

vs UMass

at UNLV

at Fresno St

vs San Jose St

vs East Carolina

at Mississippi St

vs Boise St

at Utah St

vs Utah

vs Wisconsin

vs LSU

vs Portland St



My guess is, even with the injuries, we win every game we won, plus we likely beat UMass, Fresno, East Carolina, Boise and Utah St and finish with a 9-4 record.

A one game improvement is my guess. Surprise ECU maybe.

Given how we came out of the gate against lowly Portland State (finished their FCS season 0-11), I don't think the order of games played would have made a lick of difference.

snoscythe wrote:

Given how we came out of the gate against lowly Portland State (finished their FCS season 0-11), I don't think the order of games played would have made a lick of difference.

This.

I think at least 3 more wins. UMass, ECU and one or more of the others.

I seriously think we start the season 5-0, but the games are much closer than most predicted. But, most of the team is healthy and in a good rhythm.



But then, we lose to ECU on the road in a close game...that starts a three game slide with Mississippi St. and Boise St. losses. We rebound with a close road win over Utah St. but then have another 3-game slide against Wisconsin-Utah-LSU (the correct order). The LSU game is actually played in Houston. Half of our roster is on the injured list going into the Portland St. game, but we still manage a decent win to finish the season with a winning 7-6 record.



We receive an invite to play in the Frisco Bowl against SMU. Toss-up game.



A vocal minority of fans calls for BYU to re-join the MWC, citing our 5-1 record against the MWC, including a win over the West division winner, and lack of a bowl tie in.

Best case scenario Hawaii = Portland state and we win both. Worst case scenario Hawaii was better than PSU and we travel to Hawaii and lay an egg to start the season. I don't see how we pick up a UMASS win in that BYU was playing well after a close one in Fresno and a win over UNLV, so I see UMASS as a loss either way. (unless we're basing our decisions on some alternate universe BYU team this year - then - hey we'd have won 'em all) But if we're 0-2 going into UNLV we might win that one we might not.



Here's where the case can be made strongly that BYU was lucky to have a front loaded schedule this year, that we worked out some kinks against teams that we were always going to lose to. Again, it was a real possibility that we lose to Hawaii if they're the first team on the schedule, and there is no reason to believe that we do any better against UMASS in week 2. In week two this year we never crossed the 50 yard line offensively - we hadn't figured anything out yet. SO to assume that we magically beat UMASS is folly. I voted 4-9 but I'd have been tempted to vote "worse" if it were an option

frdbtr wrote:

Given how we came out of the gate against lowly Portland State (finished their FCS season 0-11), I don't think the order of games played would have made a lick of difference.

This.

My first thoughts as well. Agree with you both.

I think 9-4 or 8-5.

Where's the 15-0 option where we win the NC? I had to settle for 13-0.

I am mystified why people think our record would be that different? Until guys catch the ball, make the blocks, fill the gaps, practice hard, call the right plays, make the throws, no reordering of our schedule will result in a different WL record

I honestly don't see much difference, maybe a game. I doubt we'd be bowling.

snoscythe wrote:

Given how we came out of the gate against lowly Portland State (finished their FCS season 0-11), I don't think the order of games played would have made a lick of difference.

Bingo.

Ddawg wrote:

Given how we came out of the gate against lowly Portland State (finished their FCS season 0-11), I don't think the order of games played would have made a lick of difference.

Bingo.

If you look at a turd from the other side is it still a turd?

pikoi wrote:

snoscythe wrote:

Given how we came out of the gate against lowly Portland State (finished their FCS season 0-11), I don't think the order of games played would have made a lick of difference.

Bingo.

If you look at a turd from the other side is it still a turd?

That's a tough question. I will venture a tentative "Yes."

;)

BoiseBYU wrote:

I am mystified why people think our record would be that different? Until guys catch the ball, make the blocks, fill the gaps, practice hard, call the right plays, make the throws, no reordering of our schedule will result in a different WL record

Easy. Injuries. And the discipline stuff. Wouldn't have happened until the back half of the schedule, which is the difficult half. With a full stable of our best running backs and our top two quarterbacks and a healthy defense, BYU beats Hawaii, UMass, UNLV, Fresno, and SJSU to start the season. We would only need one other win to go bowling.

YNot wrote:

I am mystified why people think our record would be that different? Until guys catch the ball, make the blocks, fill the gaps, practice hard, call the right plays, make the throws, no reordering of our schedule will result in a different WL record

Easy. Injuries. And the discipline stuff. Wouldn't have happened until the back half of the schedule, which is the difficult half. With a full stable of our best running backs and our top two quarterbacks and a healthy defense, BYU beats Hawaii, UMass, UNLV, Fresno, and SJSU to start the season. We would only need one other win to go bowling.

I think our best 2 RBs were playing the last half of the season. The coaching staff just didn't know they were the best 2 because they never saw them in practice.

hawkwing wrote:

BoiseBYU wrote:

I am mystified why people think our record would be that different? Until guys catch the ball, make the blocks, fill the gaps, practice hard, call the right plays, make the throws, no reordering of our schedule will result in a different WL record

Easy. Injuries. And the discipline stuff. Wouldn't have happened until the back half of the schedule, which is the difficult half. With a full stable of our best running backs and our top two quarterbacks and a healthy defense, BYU beats Hawaii, UMass, UNLV, Fresno, and SJSU to start the season. We would only need one other win to go bowling.

I think our best 2 RBs were playing the last half of the season. The coaching staff just didn't know they were the best 2 because they never saw them in practice.

Tolutau, Canada, and Dye (or Fonua) would have rushed for 200+ yards against all five of Hawaii, Umass, UNLV, Fresno, and SJSU. Mangum and Hoge would have managed the games and limited turnovers well enough to win all 5. The resulting confidence from a good start and the team health could have given us a chance against ECU, Boise St., and Utah St.

It's all conjecture. Things may have played out worse. Different injuries, HC violations while celebrating a win, less sense of need to practice hard, etc.

YNot wrote:

YNot wrote:

I am mystified why people think our record would be that different? Until guys catch the ball, make the blocks, fill the gaps, practice hard, call the right plays, make the throws, no reordering of our schedule will result in a different WL record

Easy. Injuries. And the discipline stuff. Wouldn't have happened until the back half of the schedule, which is the difficult half. With a full stable of our best running backs and our top two quarterbacks and a healthy defense, BYU beats Hawaii, UMass, UNLV, Fresno, and SJSU to start the season. We would only need one other win to go bowling.

I think our best 2 RBs were playing the last half of the season. The coaching staff just didn't know they were the best 2 because they never saw them in practice.

Tolutau, Canada, and Dye (or Fonua) would have rushed for 200+ yards against all five of Hawaii, Umass, UNLV, Fresno, and SJSU. Mangum and Hoge would have managed the games and limited turnovers well enough to win all 5. The resulting confidence from a good start and the team health could have given us a chance against ECU, Boise St., and Utah St.

BYU had 171 yards rushing against Portland State - Canada getting the most but Founa also getting 8.4 yards on limited carries. Portland State is not good. Hawaii is better than they are - our rushing game made adjustments during the year to improve. There is no way anyone could know that we'd rush for a bunch of yards against teams at the beginning if the year. Think that we improved during the year, and that we may have actually lost to Hawaii had we played them first. Week zero we beat Portland State 20-6 Hawaii beat UMASS 38-35. Anyone predicting a win over Hawaii in week zero seems crazy - as in there is zero evidence of it. If we can magically be a better against some teams by playing them in a different order, we must be honest enough with ourselves to assume that the teams that we beat may have beat us if we played them in a different order too.



No other team scored as few of points as we did against Portland State. We sucked week zero. Hawaii didn't. Both UMASS and Hawaii were playing better at the start of the year than we were. I say that we definitely start off the year at 0-2 (and it only gets worse from there)



As far as injuries go - I don't know that our injuries came against LSU, Wisconsin or Mississippi State. Magnum's high ankle sprain came against Utah and his final injury against Fresno State. Hoge's injury against Utah State - it's not like an injury cannot happen against an AAC or MWC team. I'm sticking with my believe that we'd have lost to Hawaii out of the gate and then had a very very very bad year - worse that it was this way until I see an argument that makes sense otherwise.