BYU opens as a double digit dog to Fresno State

I've seen BYU as 11 and 12 point underdogs to the bulldogs. Thoughts?

My thoughts are that this could be ugly. Hopefully it's ugly in favor of BYU turning things around and beating Fresno easily. I just haven't seen enough to think that BYU can and should be favored to win, or that the spread should be closer.

BYU has the individual talent to win this game, but I'd bet on "two steps forward, one step back".

Mars wrote:

BYU has the individual talent to win this game, but I'd bet on "two steps forward, one step back".

on paper, BYU's a decent team...

I'm going to pull out my bluest of goggles and say that BYU covers the spread on this one. It will be less than a double digit win for either team.

BYU loses this game by 20+ the odds makers are being kind.

frdbtr wrote:

BYU loses this game by 20+ the odds makers are being kind.

Nothing except a BYU dominant win would surprise me right now.

Fresno St. just lost to UNLV (3-5) at home, 16-26. Only 300 yards offense. UNLV lost to FCS Howard and had a bad loss to USU at home - not a road loss riddled with turnovers and pick-6's; but a sound mistmatch.



I also note that Fresno St. beat SJSU earlier this year, 27-10. Only about 300 yards offense and needed 4 turnovers to score the 27 points. The turnover battle and the effectiveness of our running game will determine the outcome for this one.



Signs of life for BYU are the fact that BYU's 598 yards of offense and 41 points look more like the performances against SJSU by South Florida, Texas, and Utah; whereas Fresno and Hawaii the two weeks before our matchup had relative struggles against SJSU:



Fresno = 27 points and 348 yards (17-point Fresno win).

Hawaii = 37 points and 451 yards (11-point Hawaii win, but SJSU actually outgained Hawaii - 504 yards - but lost the turnover battle)

I'm thinking BYU 9, Fresno State 27.

YNot wrote:

Fresno St. just lost to UNLV (3-5) at home, 16-26. Only 300 yards offense. UNLV lost to FCS Howard and had a bad loss to USU at home - not a road loss riddled with turnovers and pick-6's; but a sound mistmatch.



I also note that Fresno St. beat SJSU earlier this year, 27-10. Only about 300 yards offense and needed 4 turnovers to score the 27 points. The turnover battle and the effectiveness of our running game will determine the outcome for this one.



Signs of life for BYU are the fact that BYU's 598 yards of offense and 41 points look more like the performances against SJSU by South Florida, Texas, and Utah; whereas Fresno and Hawaii the two weeks before our matchup had relative struggles against SJSU:



Fresno = 27 points and 348 yards (17-point Fresno win).

Hawaii = 37 points and 451 yards (11-point Hawaii win, but SJSU actually outgained Hawaii - 504 yards - but lost the turnover battle)

Can someone remind me how ECU looked against our defense? Or how our offense did against their 128th ranked defense? Until proven otherwise, I have absolutely no faith that this BYU team will be prepared to beat anyone. Fresno also beat a pretty good SDSU team, the UNLV loss seems more of an outlier than the norm. In fact BYU beating Fresno would be the outlier in this game if you go by the full season of how the 2 teams have performed so far.

The teams BYU has beaten this season have a combined record of 1-14 (.067) in non-BYU games.

The teams BYU has lost to this season have a combined record of 29-21 (.580) in non-BYU games.



The teams Fresno St has beaten this season have a combined record of 13-24 (.351) in non-FrSt games.

The teams Fresno St has lost to this season have a combined record of 15-6 (.714) in non-FrSt games.

snoscythe wrote:

The teams BYU has beaten this season have a combined record of 1-14 (.067) in non-BYU games.

The teams BYU has lost to this season have a combined record of 29-21 (.580) in non-BYU games.



The teams Fresno St has beaten this season have a combined record of 13-24 (.351) in non-FrSt games.

The teams Fresno St has lost to this season have a combined record of 15-6 (.714) in non-FrSt games.

So whether we win or lose, it will help our respective numbers, right?

Mars wrote:

I'm thinking BYU 9, Fresno State 27.

Thinking of the scenarios this could happen for BYU:

- Hey, IF BYU gets a safety out of the deal, I'll take it.

- 3 fgs? no way.

- Touchdown, missed PAT and a FG? unlikely as well. Almond is automatic on PATs. Maybe missed 2pt conversion

- FG and 3 safeties - most entertaining game ever.

frdbtr wrote:

Fresno St. just lost to UNLV (3-5) at home, 16-26. Only 300 yards offense. UNLV lost to FCS Howard and had a bad loss to USU at home - not a road loss riddled with turnovers and pick-6's; but a sound mistmatch.



I also note that Fresno St. beat SJSU earlier this year, 27-10. Only about 300 yards offense and needed 4 turnovers to score the 27 points. The turnover battle and the effectiveness of our running game will determine the outcome for this one.



Signs of life for BYU are the fact that BYU's 598 yards of offense and 41 points look more like the performances against SJSU by South Florida, Texas, and Utah; whereas Fresno and Hawaii the two weeks before our matchup had relative struggles against SJSU:



Fresno = 27 points and 348 yards (17-point Fresno win).

Hawaii = 37 points and 451 yards (11-point Hawaii win, but SJSU actually outgained Hawaii - 504 yards - but lost the turnover battle)

Can someone remind me how ECU looked against our defense? Or how our offense did against their 128th ranked defense? Until proven otherwise, I have absolutely no faith that this BYU team will be prepared to beat anyone. Fresno also beat a pretty good SDSU team, the UNLV loss seems more of an outlier than the norm. In fact BYU beating Fresno would be the outlier in this game if you go by the full season of how the 2 teams have performed so far.

Preseason, everyone was chalking this game up as a win. Everyone gives Fresno St the advantage because BYU has been terrible.



A few things to consider:

1. Fresno only lost to Alabama 41-10, on the road. BYU lost at home to Wisconsin 40-6 and LSU on the road 27-0. They could be a handful, offense and defense.

2. The game vs UNLV may have been a fluke, as frdbtr said. Offensive stats for each team, yds/avg/3rd downs/etc. were all approximately equal, except for TOP, turnovers, & 4th downs. 34 minutes for UNLV, 0 turnovers, 26 minutes for Fresno St, 1 turnover. UNLV 2/2 4th downs, Fresno 1/4.

3. Fresno's 3 losses were to Alabama and Washington before including UNLV. Wins include 38-0 over New Mexico, 27-3 vs SDSU, & 41-21 vs Nevada. Also 66-0 vs FCS Incarnate Word (this only shows that they can score a lot against the right teams and shows a better win than BYU over PSU). These all show that Fresno St has dependable and consistent offense.

4. We haven't seen a fire from our offense like their performance against SJSU. Historically, our defense struggles, esp. late in a blown game, after our offense has been stagnant and turning it over -- vs. Utah 2011, 7 turnovers turn a 14-10 halftime game into a 54-10 blowout. If our offense has figured things out, our defense might be solid.

5. We haven't had much of a reason to play (not sure why). If our coaches lit a fire under the players and successfully managed to get them to play aggressively, our energy/fight from SJSU should carry over to Fresno St.

6. 2 of Fresno St's losses have come to teams that run the pro-style (although they both do it much better than BYU). Even though our scheme might be simple & outdated, we have made some adjustments and shouuld find some weaknesses vs Bulldogs D.

7. We have shown that we can move the ball and that we can score. Utah State, our offense was fine until Hoge went down and out. SJSU only gives Mangum 1 game with offensive fireworks, but shows improvement and that we can take advantage in the right situation.



I don't know that we will not win, and I am not saying that we will. I am only pointing out some advantages for each team.

Fresno fans say that the UNLV gave the roadmap to beat them. Fresno is fast to the edges but if you run right at them going North and South that you can beat them.



Maybe we will come out in the I and play smashmouth ball.

scott715 wrote:

Fresno fans say that the UNLV gave the roadmap to beat them. Fresno is fast to the edges but if you run right at them going North and South that you can beat them.



Maybe we will come out in the I and play smashmouth ball.

Sounds like a job for tolutau