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Reload 2010

by Cougy_Monster · 1/11/2010

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Cougy_Monster
Next season will be the biggest test to date of Bronco's system.



I believe his system will work in 2010 and replacing players in key positions (like QB) will cause nothing more than some minor growing pains.



We've got the system. We've got the players. We'll have the season.



10+ wins in 2010.
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DarkWolf
My thoughts exactly.



With what we've got returning from this year's team, and the incoming talent (from both the mission field and the new recruits), if there was ever a case of reloading vs rebuilding, this is it. Sky's the limit next year (and beyond), I believe!
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CougarClaw
Cougy_Monster wrote:
Next season will be the biggest test to date of Bronco's system.



I believe his system will work in 2010 and replacing players in key positions (like QB) will cause nothing more than some minor growing pains.



We've got the system. We've got the players. We'll have the season.



10+ wins in 2010.


I don't disagree, but i wonder if you'd be asking this question if we weren't losing our quarterback this year.
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SpiffCoug
We may have the system and the players. I'm not sure we've got the schedule for 10+ wins in the regular season however.
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bigbluepuma
Right on, Cougy! I think they'll have a very good team next year, even with the rebuilding, because the talent level is improving. Remember, we not only have a great recruiting class this year, but we have some studs from last year and the year before waiting in the wings. Nobody but me seems to give us much of a chance @ FSU next year, but I think the boys go to FL with something to prove, and fire in thear eyes. I think we win more games than almost anybody gives us a shot at. :)
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snoscythe
If Nelson starts, I think we have a shot at 10 wins again just because of the maturity/understanding at that position. If Munns, Lark, or Heaps start, I'll be happy with 8 wins, losing a couple games we should have won as growing pains set in for a quarterback who hasn't been with the program in 2 seasons, if at all.



Near-locks for losses:

@ TCU

@ FSU



Probable losses with a greenhorn under center:

@Utah

UW



Plus I think we drop one of these in a hiccup game:

@ AFA

Wyoming



But then again, that's just me.
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BOID
bigbluepuma wrote:
Right on, Cougy! I think they'll have a very good team next year, even with the rebuilding, because the talent level is improving. Remember, we not only have a great recruiting class this year, but we have some studs from last year and the year before waiting in the wings. Nobody but me seems to give us much of a chance @ FSU next year, but I think the boys go to FL with something to prove, and fire in thear eyes. I think we win more games than almost anybody gives us a shot at. :)


I think we've got a shot against FSU. At least our guys won't be going in complacently this time. The 2010 Cougar D will be good enough to play them. I think the OL will be good for it also. The QB situation will be interesting. I believe that who ever wins the job should be pretty good, especially since Heaps and Lark will be there in the spring to compete with Nelson. One thing is certain, however. Our Cougs will have to score a bunch to be able to overcome the ACC officials, who will surely have their finger in it (this is merely an assumption, so I will be happy to learn if I am wrong about the ACC refs being there for a conference home game like they were on the road).
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Y 4 Ever
snoscythe wrote:
If Nelson starts, I think we have a shot at 10 wins again just because of the maturity/understanding at that position. If Munns, Lark, or Heaps start, I'll be happy with 8 wins, losing a couple games we should have won as growing pains set in for a quarterback who hasn't been with the program in 2 seasons, if at all.



Near-locks for losses:

@ TCU

@ FSU



Probable losses with a greenhorn under center:

@Utah

UW



Plus I think we drop one of these in a hiccup game:

@ AFA

Wyoming



But then again, that's just me.


I disagree, and then I disagree, and then I disagree again.



Nielsen will not be a long-term starting QB for BYU. Ever. Bronco might pull something like Whitlessham did, and have nielsen start the first few games so Heaps doesn't get ground to a pulp by FSU. But by mid-season at the LATEST (and my guess is to start the year) Heaps will be taking full-time snaps behind center.



And I look at the schedule next year, and I remain unafraid. I see no "near locks" for a loss. I expect BYU to be competitive in every game. And I see no way that we lose to AFA (which we almost NEVER do unless some d-bag is our coach) and/or Wyoming.



And Mark. This. Down. We will NOT, in any way, lose to the :utard: .
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snoscythe
33311710 wrote:
If Nelson starts, I think we have a shot at 10 wins again just because of the maturity/understanding at that position. If Munns, Lark, or Heaps start, I'll be happy with 8 wins, losing a couple games we should have won as growing pains set in for a quarterback who hasn't been with the program in 2 seasons, if at all.



Near-locks for losses:

@ TCU

@ FSU



Probable losses with a greenhorn under center:

@Utah

UW



Plus I think we drop one of these in a hiccup game:

@ AFA

Wyoming



But then again, that's just me.


I disagree, and then I disagree, and then I disagree again.



Nielsen will not be a long-term starting QB for BYU. Ever. Bronco might pull something like Whitlessham did, and have nielsen start the first few games so Heaps doesn't get ground to a pulp by FSU. But by mid-season at the LATEST (and my guess is to start the year) Heaps will be taking full-time snaps behind center.



And I look at the schedule next year, and I remain unafraid. I see no "near locks" for a loss. I expect BYU to be competitive in every game. And I see no way that we lose to AFA (which we almost NEVER do unless some d-bag is our coach) and/or Wyoming.



And Mark. This. Down. We will NOT, in any way, lose to the :utard: .


I'm glad you have that much confidence in the true freshman all-everything quarterback. Lets look at the past two #1 passing quarterbacks to start their freshman seasons, comparing them to the previous season's starting quarterback at their school to illustrate the drop off:



#1 QB recruit 2007 = Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame (Quinn)

- 3-6 as a starter (10-3)

- 56.3% completions (61.9%)

- 7 tds / 6 ints (37 / 7)

- passing efficiency of 103.85, (146.65)



#1 QB recruit 2009 = Matt Barkley, USC (Sanchez)

- 9-3 as a starter (12-1)

- 59.9% completions (65.8)

- 15 td / 14 int (34 td/ 10 int)

- passing efficiency of 131.32 (164.64)





This is what Heaps would be replacing:

- 10-3 as a starter

- 67.2% completion percentage

- 33 td / 14 int

- passing efficiency of 160.13



Now, assuming that Heaps is the best thing since buttered bread, and he is only as bad as the better of Barkley or Clausen in a given category next year, that means Heaps would lose two more games, complete 5.6% fewer passes, throw 19 fewer touchdowns, and one fewer interceptions, and his efficiency would be 33.32 points below Halls. Again, that is giving Heaps the benefit of the doubt--I am assuming he will do as well as the better of Barkley and Clausen in keeping pace with the predecessor.



This is what Heaps' hypothetical numbers would look like:

- 8-5 as a starter

- 61.6% completion percentage

- 14 td / 13 int

- passing efficiency of 126.81



Even if you ignore record, what about 61.6%, 14/13 and 126.81 tells you BYU won't struggle with Heaps under center? With new TEs, without Manase, likely without Harvey?



If you choose to think that Heaps is ready to simply step-up and fill the shoes and maintain the production of a three-year starting quarterback, what makes you think that this is a feasible expectation?
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Y 4 Ever
snoscythe wrote:

Even if you ignore record, what about 61.6%, 14/13 and 126.81 tells you BYU won't struggle with Heaps under center? With new TEs, without Manase, likely without Harvey?



If you choose to think that Heaps is ready to simply step-up and fill the shoes and maintain the production of a three-year starting quarterback, what makes you think that this is a feasible expectation?


Simple:



I don't give a crap what Barkley and/or Clausen did. They are different players, with different coaches, in different systems, playing different competition, etc. Doesn't matter to me one bit what these two clowns managed to do in their first year.



I'll just point back to the last two times we had first-year QB's that actually played a relatively injury-free year (I've not included Beck's 1st year campaign, as he played only a few games, rather than the whole season)



2001 - Brandon Domon (Yes, I know, I know, he was a senior. But he had really only played in 2 games prior at QB, so he qualifies). Results - 12-2, won conference



2007 - Max Hall - result - 11-2, won conference. And we were replaceing our TE's (anyone remember a little fellow names Harline?), our RBs, our defensive leaders (i.e. Cameron Jensen), a huge chunk of our line, etc.



And don't give me the "Max was a sophomore" crap. We all know that he was basically a freshman, and hadn't taken a snap in, what, 3 years? Heaps will be coming in fresh, no mission, right out of HS, where he played against some tough competition. Heaps will not get beat out by a guy with good legs but a questionable arm. Last I checked, we don't run the wishbone and/or a true "spread" option.



OH, and you managed to forget about one other freshman QB who actually did pretty well in his debut :utard: :utard: :utard: :utard: Jordan Wynn :utard: :utard: :utard: :utard: who was, what 6-2? With those two losses to top 12 teams? And one of those on the road in OT? Not too shabby for a Freshman.



Sorry, I don't have all of your fancy stats for Wynn to back that up. I can't say how he compares to your boys Barkley and Clausen. But once again, it DOESN'T MATTER.



And finally, it's my right as a true-blue Cougar fan to believe that we will storm through the conference unchecked despite any and all statistical evidence that you can muster to the contrary.
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snoscythe
33311710 wrote:

Even if you ignore record, what about 61.6%, 14/13 and 126.81 tells you BYU won't struggle with Heaps under center? With new TEs, without Manase, likely without Harvey?



If you choose to think that Heaps is ready to simply step-up and fill the shoes and maintain the production of a three-year starting quarterback, what makes you think that this is a feasible expectation?


Simple:



I don't give a crap what Barkley and/or Clausen did. They are different players, with different coaches, in different systems, playing different competition, etc. Doesn't matter to me one bit what these two clowns managed to do in their first year.



I'll just point back to the last two times we had first-year QB's that actually played a relatively injury-free year (I've not included Beck's 1st year campaign, as he played only a few games, rather than the whole season)



2001 - Brandon Domon (Yes, I know, I know, he was a senior. But he had really only played in 2 games prior at QB, so he qualifies). Results - 12-2, won conference



2007 - Max Hall - result - 11-2, won conference. And we were replaceing our TE's (anyone remember a little fellow names Harline?), our RBs, our defensive leaders (i.e. Cameron Jensen), a huge chunk of our line, etc.



And don't give me the "Max was a sophomore" crap. We all know that he was basically a freshman, and hadn't taken a snap in, what, 3 years? Heaps will be coming in fresh, no mission, right out of HS, where he played against some tough competition. Heaps will not get beat out by a guy with good legs but a questionable arm. Last I checked, we don't run the wishbone and/or a true "spread" option.


This isn't a discussion about who will start. I'm saying that if Heaps starts, we're going to see growing pains. Thank you for proving my point by providing examples of how quarterbacks who are not #1 all-world recruits can step in and lead a team to success given more exposure to the program. Each of those quarterbacks had been with the program at least one full season before stepping in as a starter.


OH, and you managed to forget about one other freshman QB who actually did pretty well in his debut :utard: :utard: :utard: :utard: Jordan Wynn :utard: :utard: :utard: :utard: who was, what 6-2? With those two losses to top 12 teams? And one of those on the road in OT? Not too shabby for a Freshman.



Sorry, I don't have all of your fancy stats for Wynn to back that up. I can't say how he compares to your boys Barkley and Clausen. But once again, it DOESN'T MATTER.


Well I would like to give you credit for trying, but you failed miserably, Wynn wasn't 6-2, he was 3-2 as a starter.



I'll give you your Wynn numbers just for your reference (BJ's numbers in parentheses):

- 3-2 as starter (13-0)

- 58.1% completions (68.0)

- 8 tds / 4 int (27 /9)

- 130.75 pass efficiency (149.93)


And finally, it's my right as a true-blue Cougar fan to believe that we will storm through the conference unchecked despite any and all statistical evidence that you can muster to the contrary.


Feel free to exercise that right, but when you try and argue with the numbers, don't be surprised when you don't win.



Again, I think our best option to win 10 games again is Riley Nelson simply because he has an additional year in the program under his belt, and the past has shown that those quarterbacks have been largely successful in program stability. If we do field Heaps as a starter next season, I will simply be tempering my expectations given the history of true-freshman stud quarterbacks and I will be happy with 8 wins, ecstatic to see 9. And it is my right as a true-blue Cougar fan to be happy with that.
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Y 4 Ever
snoscythe wrote:
And it is my right as a true-blue Cougar fan to be happy with that.


touche



But I still say that as a true-blue Cougar fan, my Cougs are going undefeated EVERY YEAR until they prove me wrong!
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Y 4 Ever
snoscythe wrote:



Again, I think our best option to win 10 games again is Riley Nelson simply because he has an additional year in the program under his belt, and the past has shown that those quarterbacks have been largely successful in program stability. If we do field Heaps as a starter next season, I will simply be tempering my expectations given the history of true-freshman stud quarterbacks and I will be happy with 8 wins, ecstatic to see 9. And it is my right as a true-blue Cougar fan to be happy with that.


And I still don't buy the argument comparing Heaps to two other QBs in two different systems, etc. No matter what their stats.



If (in my opinion, when) Heaps starts, BYU will be the better team for it.
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scott715
Don't forget that Hall had a year of running the scout team before he took over. He would be more like a redshirt freshman who got used to the D1 speed than being out for 3 years.
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Mars
Cougy_Monster wrote:
Next season will be the biggest test to date of Bronco's system. I believe his system will work in 2010 and replacing players in key positions (like QB) will cause nothing more than some minor growing pains. We've got the system. We've got the players. We'll have the season.



10+ wins in 2010.

I approve of this post. Especially if Heaps wins the starting job- I don't think we could win 10 games with Nelson.
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Cougy_Monster
Mars wrote:
I approve of this post. Especially if Heaps wins the starting job- I don't think we could win 10 games with Nelson.


If Heaps wins the starting job it will mean that he really is that good and ready. Bronco won't throw him to the wolves (or the huskies...) just to see how he'll do. If Heaps starts next year I'll be as excited for our QB going into the season as I was back when Detmer was about to start his junior year.



If Nelson is the starter than we can all be pleased that he beat out the #1 recruit in the country. Either way we should feel good. Plus we're not even talking about Lark and Munns.



Back in the day Lavell had some great QB battles some years. He never had quite the revolving door that Crowton did, but he wasn't shy about pulling a QB mid game. I wonder if Bronco (or Anae) will have it in them to yoink Nelson and put in Heaps if need be.
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Mars
Cougy_Monster wrote:
If Heaps starts next year I'll be as excited for our QB going into the season as I was back when Detmer was about to start his junior year.

I was pretty stoked about Max Hall's first year as well. I really thought we'd pulled the wool over ASU's eyes...
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bball
Some of you seem to forget that it was not our offense that failed us in our two losses in 2009, it was our defense. We couldn't slow down FSU, and we couldn't stop TCU. If BYU is going to win those two games next year (on the road), it will be because of our defense, not necessarily because of our offense.



If our new QB does not have to pass for 300 yards in every game, then his performance is not so critical, and we can still win 10-11 games. McElroy of Alabama was no great passer this year, he had a few good games, but even Alabama's win or Texas had little to do with McElroy, he was awful in that game, yet Alabama won the game.



If the BYU defense continues to get better, and I believe it will, then the offense doesn't have to score a gazillion points in order to win the game.
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snoscythe
bball wrote:
Some of you seem to forget that it was not our offense that failed us in our two losses in 2009, it was our defense. We couldn't slow down FSU, and we couldn't stop TCU. If BYU is going to win those two games next year (on the road), it will be because of our defense, not necessarily because of our offense.


I'll give you the FSU game, but you can't pin TCU on the defense alone---14 points in 2 years, that's what the offense gave us. There is some need for either improvement or adjustment--likely both.


If our new QB does not have to pass for 300 yards in every game, then his performance is not so critical, and we can still win 10-11 games. McElroy of Alabama was no great passer this year, he had a few good games, but even Alabama's win or Texas had little to do with McElroy, he was awful in that game, yet Alabama won the game.



If the BYU defense continues to get better, and I believe it will, then the offense doesn't have to score a gazillion points in order to win the game.


Truth, but I'm not sure we'll see that improvement right away after replacing 7 starters on defense.
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kiwibacon
snoscythe wrote:
Some of you seem to forget that it was not our offense that failed us in our two losses in 2009, it was our defense. We couldn't slow down FSU, and we couldn't stop TCU. If BYU is going to win those two games next year (on the road), it will be because of our defense, not necessarily because of our offense.


I'll give you the FSU game, but you can't pin TCU on the defense alone---14 points in 2 years, that's what the offense gave us. There is some need for either improvement or adjustment--likely both.


If our new QB does not have to pass for 300 yards in every game, then his performance is not so critical, and we can still win 10-11 games. McElroy of Alabama was no great passer this year, he had a few good games, but even Alabama's win or Texas had little to do with McElroy, he was awful in that game, yet Alabama won the game.



If the BYU defense continues to get better, and I believe it will, then the offense doesn't have to score a gazillion points in order to win the game.
Truth, but I'm not sure we'll see that improvement right away after replacing 7 starters on defense.
14 offensive points in the last two years against TCU leads me to believe that Patterson has our number. This does not seem to be an "executing" issue by the players either. I think our coaches just have not figured out how to attack TCU's speedy defense since Patterson has adjusted from our first couple of meetings. So yes, we needed offense in the TCU game.



Our defense was still definitely MIA for that game and FSU. It almost seemed like we got behind quick and didn't have the heart to keep trying for turnovers or 3 and outs.
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