Scheduling and the Boise St model

I went back and looked at how both BYU and Boise State have done against BCS/P5 teams since 2006.



Over those 11 seasons BYU was 21-23 vs BCS/P5 teams. It was also 2-3 against Boise State and 3-8 against Utah.



Over those 11 seasons Boise State was 14-6 vs BCS/P5 teams. It was also 3-2 against BYU and 2-0 against Utah.



Boise State has usually scheduled no more than 2 P5 teams a season over that time. And none of them were elite Top 10 caliber. If there was a 3rd, it usually was an opponent in their bowl game.



BYU typically scheduled 3 P5 teams each season prior to going independent. Since then it's usually been 4, 5, even 6 P5 opponents.



Naturally we BYU fans want to see our team play against the big boys. It's more exciting than most G5 teams and you get more credit if you win. If you win.



But looking back over a decade now, and comparing Boise State's success and BYU's (or lack thereof), I have to wonder if we have been too ambitious and unrealistic. Playing the Michigans or LSUs of the world is no fun if you just get embarrassed.



I think it's obvious that Boise State's success has come not from having P5 talent (I don't think they do) but great coaching, preparation, scheme, and strategic scheduling. Sure, they're not going to get into the 4-team CFB playoff but neither are we. Even if BYU had went undefeated last year, including beating Arizona, Utah, UCLA, West Virginia, Michigan State, and Mississippi State, does anyone think we would have gotten in before the 4 P5 teams that did? (That's a rhetorical question)



Under the current landscape of college football, and our unique place within it, perhaps taking a more Boise State-like approach would help. We still need great coaching, preparation, and scheme but the strategic scheduling aspect would be there.



In my opinion, a more realistic and fitting schedule would involve no more than 2 or 3 P5 teams a season. In our case, we should try to schedule our rival Utah as well as Notre Dame as much as possible. Perhaps 1 other P5 team but one we can have a reasonable expectation of beating.



Considering our unique situation, I think we should be filling the rest of our schedule with the academies as well regional/traditional opponents like Utah State, Boise State, and Hawaii. Also maybe switching back and forth between Weber State and SUU year to year. Also UMass who is a fellow independent.



We had 6 P5 opponents last year, 4 this year, and 5 next year. Exciting at first glance, sure, but if history is any guide we're usually not going to win more than half those games at best.



BYU has to make the most out of the cards it has been dealt. And I don't think we're doing that.

Boise State is a mid-major, a member of the Mountain West. Is that what you envision for BYU's football program?

Woody3715 wrote:

Boise State is a mid-major, a member of the Mountain West. Is that what you envision for BYU's football program?

And we're an independent P5-lite level program with limited recruiting/hiring ability for players and coaches and a BOT and athletic coordinator seemingly wanting to play at the P5 level but not wanting to pay P5 money.



Outside of us somehow getting an invite to the Big 12 should it ever decide to expand, what do you envision for BYU at this point?

Woody3715 wrote:

Boise State is a mid-major, a member of the Mountain West. Is that what you envision for BYU's football program?

It certainly was a lot more fun to watch.



The next time BYU wins a National Champion or goes to an NY6 bowl will be after the Second Coming.



BYU is a mid-major and always will be.

Gunk wrote:

Boise State is a mid-major, a member of the Mountain West. Is that what you envision for BYU's football program?

It certainly was a lot more fun to watch.



The next time BYU wins a National Champion or goes to an NY6 bowl will be after the Second Coming.



BYU is a mid-major and always will be.

I think we're better than most mid-majors. It's why I say we are P5-lite level. But we have limitations that P5-lite schools, like Oregon State or Georgia Tech, don't have.



I think a NY6 bowl is possible if, as I said, we have great coaching, preparation, scheme and the right scheduling.

KingCoug wrote:

Boise State is a mid-major, a member of the Mountain West. Is that what you envision for BYU's football program?

And we're an independent P5-lite level program with limited recruiting/hiring ability for players and coaches and a BOT and athletic coordinator seemingly wanting to play at the P5 level but not wanting to pay P5 money.



Outside of us somehow getting an invite to the Big 12 should it ever decide to expand, what do you envision for BYU at this point?

I agree with your characterization of the current BYU program; this is what is so frustrating to the BYU faithful. The Trustees must decide: do they want (1) a P-5 program and make the required changes necessary to succeed or (2) say the current policies shall remain in place. and agree to be a mid-major (and maybe rejoin the Mountain West). See my post in the thread "Talent gap is growing-how can we win?".

Woody3715 wrote:

Woody3715 wrote:

Boise State is a mid-major, a member of the Mountain West. Is that what you envision for BYU's football program?

And we're an independent P5-lite level program with limited recruiting/hiring ability for players and coaches and a BOT and athletic coordinator seemingly wanting to play at the P5 level but not wanting to pay P5 money.



Outside of us somehow getting an invite to the Big 12 should it ever decide to expand, what do you envision for BYU at this point?

I agree with your characterization of the current BYU program; this is what is so frustrating to the BYU faithful. The Trustees must decide: do they want (1) a P-5 program and make the required changes necessary to succeed or (2) say the current policies shall remain in place. and agree to be a mid-major (and maybe rejoin the Mountain West). See my post in the thread "Talent gap is growing-how can we win?".

Hiring a non-LDS head coach will likely never happen and I'm not convinced it should. But that means it's crucial that whoever it is among the small pool of LDS head coaches takes a page out of Lavell's book and hire the best coordinators and position coaches possible. If that is an LDS guy and/or BYU alumni, fine. But they don't need to be. The net needs to be far and wide and the money attractive enough to make non-LDS guys consider BYU despite its restrictions. And you know who's job it is to convince the powers that be that the purse strings should be loosened? Tom Holmoe's.



As for going back to the Mountain West, to hell with that. That gives us nothing we don't have as an independent other than a relatively meaningless conference championship (been there, done that) and the obligation of playing Wyoming every year (no thanks). We can stay independent and have more freedom to schedule who we want and have comparatively as much access to a NY6 bowl.

BYU needs to hire a head coach with real street cred in order to hire the top level assistant coaches you are talking about. Do you really think that Sitaki-type head coach is going to be able to bring in top quality assistants?



BYU already is an unofficial Mountain West member with 6 conference teams on the schedule: Utah State, Boise, San Jose State, Fresno, UNLV and Hawaii. The Cougars just aren't eligible to win the conference championship.

Woody3715 wrote:

BYU needs to hire a head coach with real street cred in order to hire the top level assistant coaches you are talking about. Do you really think that Sitaki-type head coach is going to be able to bring in top quality assistants?



BYU already is an unofficial Mountain West member with 6 conference teams on the schedule: Utah State, Boise, San Jose State, Fresno, UNLV and Hawaii. The Cougars just aren't eligible to win the conference championship.

Hypothetically speaking, say BYU dropped the LDS requirement for a head coach. That widens the pool of guys we could even take a look at but, again, considering the restrictions in place, we would have to make the money extremely attractive - from the head coach on down - for them to take a look at us. Looking at the current salaries, BYU is just outside of the top 50 schools. To make us truly competitive, the current salaries BYU is paying would have to be at least doubled. Maybe even tripled.

KingCoug wrote:

BYU needs to hire a head coach with real street cred in order to hire the top level assistant coaches you are talking about. Do you really think that Sitaki-type head coach is going to be able to bring in top quality assistants?



BYU already is an unofficial Mountain West member with 6 conference teams on the schedule: Utah State, Boise, San Jose State, Fresno, UNLV and Hawaii. The Cougars just aren't eligible to win the conference championship.

Hypothetically speaking, say BYU dropped the LDS requirement for a head coach. That widens the pool of guys we could even take a look at but, again, considering the restrictions in place, we would have to make the money extremely attractive - from the head coach on down - for them to take a look at us. Looking at the current salaries, BYU is just outside of the top 50 schools. To make us truly competitive, the current salaries BYU is paying would have to be at least doubled. Maybe even tripled.

I totally agree that, if BYU really wants to be a P-5 level program, the Trustees need to greatly increase the salaries BYU pays to the head coach and assistants. Either the Trustees want a P-5 level program or they don't. For a more detailed explanation, see my post on the top of page 2 of the thread" The talent gap is growing-how can we win".

Woody3715 wrote:

BYU needs to hire a head coach with real street cred in order to hire the top level assistant coaches you are talking about. Do you really think that Sitaki-type head coach is going to be able to bring in top quality assistants?



BYU already is an unofficial Mountain West member with 6 conference teams on the schedule: Utah State, Boise, San Jose State, Fresno, UNLV and Hawaii. The Cougars just aren't eligible to win the conference championship.

2011: 3 Utah State, Hawaii, San Jose State

2012: 4 Utah State, Boise State, Hawaii, San Jose State

2013: 3 Utah State, Boise State, Nevada

2014: 4 Utah State, Boise State, Nevada, UNLV

2015: 4 Utah State, Boise State, San Jose State, Fresno State

2016: 2 Utah State, Boise State

2017: 6 Utah State, Boise State, San Jose State, Fresno State, UNLV, Hawaii

2018: 2 Utah State, Boise State

2019: 3 Utah State, Boise State, San Diego State

2020: 3 Utah State, Boise State, San Diego State



I always laugh when people use this argument--BYU has 6 games against the MWC so they might as well be in the MWC so they are eligible to win the conference championship. But if you look, BYU typically only averages less than 4 games per season against the MWC since going independent. The UNLV game would have been in 2015 if the schedule hadn't been juggled to make room for Missouri @ Arrowhead Stadium. If they were in the MWC conference, you would have 8 annual games against MWC teams.



The Boise State scheduling model was built for the BCS era when they had a couple highly successful big name coaches. They have fallen off a bit from their peak, the BCS system has gone away and the new system makes it very tough for any non-P5 school to make a "big" bowl game. I don't know that trying to mimic that model is a valid one going forward.

Also, BSU has had a lot of players go to the NFL over the years. Their success wasn't just a dumbed-down schedule. They had a fantastic head coach and a lot of talent in the skill positions.

I find this topic very interesting. We need to schedule to support our goals. The question is what is the goal for the football program?



Do we want to play in NY6 games? Then we need to join a G5 conference. This is the clearest and most direct way to do that. The highest ranked G5 conference champ goes to a NY6 bowl. So if the goal is to play in one of those games, that's what we need to do.



Do we want to play for a National Championship? We probably need to schedule at a higher level than we do now. Remember, the committee gives preference to conference champions. We need to be demonstrably better than most conference champions. Playing 4, 5, or 6 P5 teams a year won't cut it.



Do we simply want to finish ranked routinely? We can do that as an independent, but we need to schedule like our WAC/MWC days. This means 1 or 2 P5 caliber teams and a bunch of G5s. Please consult the 1996, 2001, 2006, 2007, and 2009 schedules for reference.



Our current schedules with our recruiting philosophy, coaching hiring philosophy, and our facilities commitment does not lend itself to any of these goals. We are kind of stuck in no man's land.

Anyone remember how far "Any one, any time, any where!" scheduling got Fresno State?



Me neither....

It wasn't very far...

I posit that Boise St. followed the "BYU model" for scheduling - from the '80's and '90's. Play one or two "power" programs in the OOC and then win the WAC. Then, you have a nice and shiny win-loss record, a nice ranking, get a quality bowl opponent and make a name for yourself on the national stage. Of course coaching is a significant factor, but go compare BYU's successes, bowls, and list of NFL players in the '80's and '90's to Boise St. in the '00 and '10's.



The scheduling similarities are interesting.



I do wonder what the current goals are for BYU's football program. The publicly-stated goals when we announced independence were: (1) exposure; and (2) fan access. IMO, BYU has met these goals in spades. We have the ESPN deal, which gets BYU on national TV almost weekly - except when we play at MWC non-Boise opponents and have to play on CBSSN. We have played quality programs from all over the country. BYU fans everywhere have been able to watch the team in person and on television. We have rubbed shoulders with huge fan bases, like Michigan, Nebraska, Texas, LSU, Notre Dame, Michigan St., WVU, UCLA, etc. - and thanks to competitive games - and Boney Fuller - we have P5-esque prestige with most national media and fan bases.



BUT - because of our sub-.500 record against quality opponents, we hardly ever sniff the rankings any more, there's virtually no opportunity (or merit) for a quality bowl game, and there is much fan apathy by October. Though, I think we may glamorize the G5's NY6 access. How many MWC or AAC championship would BYU have earned in the last 5 years? How many NY6 bowl games would BYU have earned?



One hint is that BYU is 2-3 versus Boise St. in that span - so that likely erases at least 3 of the opportunities.



2016 - WMU (13-0) v. BYU (8-4; 4-1 against regular season G5 opponents and lost to Boise).

2015 - Houston (12-1) v. BYU (9-3;

2014 - Boise St.(11-2 - beat BYU 55-30)

2013 - UCF (11-1)[BCS]

2012 - Louisville (11-1)[BCS]

BYU's current goal is obviously reach. The school wants to be seen, by members and non-members, both inside and outside of the country. This matters more than conference championships, the overall record, and game days/times. They want as many games as possible on as big a network as possible.



This is great for BYU fans outside of Utah. Those in Utah don't get as great a benefit, but everyone can recognize the massive ESPN cash increase. Not enough to keep up with the PAC12, but enough to outdistance the MWC over time.

Mars wrote:

BYU's current goal is obviously reach. The school wants to be seen, by members and non-members, both inside and outside of the country. This matters more than conference championships, the overall record, and game days/times. They want as many games as possible on as big a network as possible.



This is great for BYU fans outside of Utah. Those in Utah don't get as great a benefit, but everyone can recognize the massive ESPN cash increase. Not enough to keep up with the PAC12, but enough to outdistance the MWC over time.

Until ESPN is bled dry and gone.

Exposure isn't exactly a good thing if you're losing more than you're winning. Especially if you're getting embarrassed like we did against LSU.



Those BYU fans who want a national title to be the goal need to realize that BYU would have to schedule an absolute murderer's row of P5 teams (at least 10) with several of them being top 25 teams. And we'd have to go undefeated, winning many of those games very convincingly. Because we'd also be fighting an inherent P5 bias where the powers that be will want to put an undefeated or even 1 loss P5 team into the playoff before an undefeated BYU.



That then brings up the question of how likely is it that BYU could do this? Especially with the limits on recruiting, the comparatively low pay to coaches, etc. The odds are astronomical.

Good thing ESPN doesn't care if we lose. They do want us to play entertaining, exciting games though. Low scoring affairs and blowouts don't keep viewers dialed in.