line in the sand...

How many wins does BYU get this year?



Pomeroy has us winning 23, losing 7, and favorite in all but 3 games.



I'm going conservative, EXPECTING at least 20, but not necessarily more than that this year.

I assume that is in the regular season only. My guess 24.

scott715 wrote:
I assume that is in the regular season only. My guess 24.

Yes. Regular season. 24 would be an awesome season.

BroncoBot wrote:
How many wins does BYU get this year?



Pomeroy has us winning 23, losing 7, and favorite in all but 3 games.



I'm going conservative, EXPECTING at least 20, but not necessarily more than that this year.

As I understand it, Pomeroy doesn't factor in new players unless they're 5* recruits from the previous year, or something like that. So I think his system is probably underestimating us by quite a bit. If we can stay pretty healthy this will be the best team since 2011. This team will surprise a lot of people this year. The overall talent level is going to be noticeably different.

My prediction is 25 wins this year

I understand why fans would be cautious in their excitement. As humans we base those feelings on past experience. But here's the difference: we've never had this many top 100 players on the same team before. So you can't really judge what a team with a different level of talent is going to do based on what past teams with a lower level of talent have done. I'm excited to watch tomorrow. I do think we need Bryant and Rose to be healthy because they add a different type of skillset to the guardline and give us depth. They're both supposed to be ok by the time the season starts. The Princeton game is huge because they're an experienced team that won a lot of games last year and should be an rpi top 40 type team. That will be tough as a first game, but if we can win it, I predict we're going to be really good.

22

25 wins regular season.

I think this BYU team is going to struggle a bit off the bat. Much like GSW did last night with the spurs. BYU will lose some games they have no business losing.

BroncoBot wrote:
I think this BYU team is going to struggle a bit off the bat. Much like GSW did last night with the spurs. BYU will lose some games they have no business losing.

First half of the blue/white game did nothing to alleviate my fears or create new fears. First of all, Bryant, mika and rose and obviously Bryant were not playing. All should be contributors. Otherwise, the Blue white game was more of a high school game than a D1 basetball game.



I WAS impressed with Leifson, Beo and Dastrup. Aytes is huge, but may not be a huge contributor... again. Was expecting more of TJ Haws, but I haven't seen the 2nd half. He did have a great pass to a certain Kyle Davis right before half for the alley-oop at the buzzer. Worth looking that one up if you didn't see the game.



Will report more after watching the 2nd half. Team is young. They are going to struggle with teams that have a lot of chemistry and leadership.



Nashif yesterday said that coaches were looking for "the heart of the team" so they could build around that. I still think the first half of the year could be more losses than the usual BYU team. 2nd half of the season I expect big gain in the way the team plays.



Still think anything over 20 wins will be great.

However it goes, I will enjoy the season. I will say I remember in the now famous 2011 season that it took all of the non-conference games and until the big win at UNLV in January before a lot of our fans realized what was happening and how special of a season it was. There was some nitpicking by some of our fans on the message boards until that game even though we were winning our games.



I liked what I saw last night and that was with three of our best players out. I'm excited. This is the most balanced and deep team we've had in many years. Nashif in his interview yesterday talked about how they will play with two true bigs most of the time. BYU hasn't done that in years.

Also, I understand why the pundits are giving St. Mary's a lot of respect right now. They had a good record last year and return everyone. Last year there wasn't that much difference between their team and ours. They managed to avoid losing to anyone in the WCC they shouldn't have like our loss to Pacific. That was essentially the difference in the regular season. They also went to the NIT, were also seeded #2, but we got one round deeper than they did. They got blown out by Valpo right before Valpo beat us in the semis by 2 points.



But the way I see it, the pundits are just more familiar right now with who SMC is bringing back next year than they are with who we will have. In another thread I mentioned the significant talent level difference between the group of players who left us after last year and the group coming in. I think we'll be more talented than SMC. They will have continuity, but by the time conference play starts I think we will have gained quite a bit in that area. But our talent will be at a higher level in general and we will be bigger in the frontcourt. I don't see them beating us in Provo. We will just have to take care of business in the other games. Also, we've forgotten that losing a few games every year that we shouldn't is mostly a post-Jimmer/WCC phenomenon. Rose's teams before 2012 almost never lost to anyone they shouldn't. It was one of his hallmarks. We've struggled with talent and depth ever since that great 2011 season. I think that's fixed starting this year.

http://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=16804140



I watched the Blue-White game tonight and what I saw was a team that has talent but did not look like a cohesive unit. Granted we were missing three important players on the team in Young, Mika and Bryant. There was a lot of turn overs and wild passes. It was great to see Steve Cleveland back on the broadcast. You have to give him a lot of respect for serving a mission for the past three years just as he was about to take off as an analyst on ESPN. I hope he gets the chance because I think he does a great job calling a game.



I appreciated Cleveland mentioning how good Bryant can be. Some friends of mine still working in the Colonial Conference have told me that he has the ability to take over game and dominate. I said last year he would be the replacement for Collinsworth but with a decent outside shot.



It will be interesting to see where Young fits into this mix. He is probably the best defender in the backcourt and that may end up being his role.



One issue with this team is the 6 freshmen. You cannot have six players in one class on a team. Leifson will leave on a mission next season but Childs and Beo are four year players. You know that Haws will be a keeper.



Yoeli Childs



He is explosive off his feet. About mid way through the first half he had a rebound dunk that we rarely see from BYU players. Guilty of playing defense with his hands instead of his feet and this is a common trait of good high school players. They can get away with it in HS but need to be better at the next level.



His aggressiveness in the paint is something that we have not had in the past few years and I think he will play a lot of minutes and may end up starting .



Kyle Davis



Davis showed the moves that we have seen for the past two years. He will have his moments this year and there will be games where he will disappear. He will probably benefit more than anyone else from the presence of more big men.



TJ Haws



The potential is clearly seen and I suspect he will be a whole lot better by mid season. You can be sure that opposing teams will be asking who the 30 year old freshman is on the team. In the second half he started to be more aggressive and showed why he will be a scorer this year and in future years.



Nick Emery



The BYU announcers said this would be Emery’s team until someone else made a difference. I think they are correct. His three point shot is deadly and he gets it off so quick it is tough to stop.



Payton Dastrup



He comes to BYU with a lot of hype but he looked slow and out of shape to me. Perhaps he is suffering from post-mission legs and conditioning. He is a big body and in HS he could stretch the floor. Tonight he missed a lot of shots that you would expect a highly rated player to make. I think he needs to drop 20 pounds and get quicker.



Jamal Aytes



Looks a little better but he is still a below the rim player that has to get position and beat you with his physical size. There was nobody big enough to defend him tonight but that will not be the case once we move to real games.



Davin Guinn



I have heard a lot of chatter about how he could even get a starting spot on this team. I did not see that tonight. He is athletic but there are two many talented guards ahead of him. Unless he was just having an off night I still see him at the end of the bench playing at the end of games.



Steven Beo



Hard to tell what to expect from him. Has the range and size so you would hope he would develop. He will be a role player at best this season. He showed the ability to put the ball on the floor as well as hit the open shot.



Colby Leifson



He was the big surprise to me tonight. Late addition to the team and definitely has great range. He could be the Seljaas of this season. At 6’4 he could cause some problems for WCC guards. The announcers said he was a three-point machine in HS and you have to hope that will continue at BYU. By half-time he had 15 points and had everyone asking who is this kid. Based only on tonight he will see some minutes this season and if he shoots the ball like he did tonight they will increase. By the end of the game I became convinced that he will be getting 10-12 minutes a game, especially when we need some offense from the arc.



Zach Frampton and Braiden Shaw



Both will be non-factors this season and I would not expect either to finish their careers at BYU. Frampton has already served a mission so he may be UVU bound in the end.





John Haddow

BlueK wrote:

But the way I see it, the pundits are just more familiar right now with who SMC is bringing back next year than they are with who we will have.

Which gives them an enormous advantage, no? BYU in no way, shape or form should be in the discussion for top team in WCC this year.

BlueK wrote:

In another thread I mentioned the significant talent level difference between the group of players who left us after last year and the group coming in. I think we'll be more talented than SMC.

This is a lot like people claiming Jamaal Aytes was going to come in and provide such a big difference for the team last year. It's all hypothetical.



My expectation are low. I'll enjoy the season immensely. But expecting BYU is going to be beating the SMCs and zags of the conference this year is setting yourself up for frustration. They could lose all 4 of those conference games. Likely 2-3 more conference games, and I'd bet the first



worst case scenario for me; I'm completely wrong. Mika, Bryant and Rose (if the latter 2 even get healthy to play) along with Emery find a few Seljaases and this team rips it up. BYU lost a lot last when Collinsworth graduated (and this is coming from someone critical of what BYU tried to do with Collinsworth).



I'm not saying people can't have high expectations, but I think the whining background noise is going to be louder than usual for BYU basketball this year. I could see BYU losing anywhere from 6-9 games BEFORE conference gets started.

I don't know what to expect from this team. We're so young, so new to each other that I don't know how they'll do. There was a ton of turnover in the off-season that the coaches have their work cut for them in getting everyone on the same page. I worry about team cliques (the Lone Peak 3, the graduate transfers, the incoming, non-RM freshmen, etc) that might affect team chemistry.



I think we have some real talented players, but I don't know if it will all come together this year.

They should have looked a lot more lost and out of sync out there last night if this was going to be that rough of a year. I thought it was one of the better cougar tipoffs I've watched. It was way smoother than last year's, IMO.

In general I thought the team showed a couple of strengths:



1. We have several guards who can shoot, pass or drive in Emery, Haws, Beo and probably Bryant.

2. We have two very good post players with some depth. Mika and Davis will both be able to operate in the post.



Thinking about the rotation to start the year I believe it will look something like this with a 3 guard-2 big look:



LJ Rose -Basically you have to give Senior transfers a real chance to play he also could be our best defender.

Emery

Bryant

Davis

Mika





Haws should be the 1st guard off the bench and should play starter minutes. I think Guinn will play the backup 3 minutes to give us a little size. I think Childs will be the first big off the bench with Shaw and Dastrup filling in the gaps. Once Kaufusi comes back I expect him to play all the backup 5 minutes.



So that would put Aytes, Shaw and Beo out of the normal rotation. Now if Rose and/or Bryant miss some more time I think Beo is ready to play a role.

BroncoBot wrote:

I could see BYU losing anywhere from 6-9 games BEFORE conference gets started.

Wow, is this serious hyperbole or TIC? We only have 13 preconference games to begin with and it is not a really tough slate of games to begin with. Which games can you see us realistically losing?



Princeton

Coppin St

Coastal Carolina

St. Louis

Valpo/Alabama

UVU

USU

USC

Weber St

Colorado

Illinois

Idaho St

CSU Bakersfield





Gimmees: Coppin, C. Carolina, Idaho, CSU-B



Should be wins: UVU, USU, Weber



Can Wins: Princeton, St. Louis (no idea how good they are), Valpo/alab, USC, Colorado, Illinois (no idea how good they are either).



In order to lose 9 games, we would have to lose all "Can Win" games, and all "Should win" games. 4 of those are at home and the others are neutral site games. We don't play a true road game until conference play, Jan. 5. I don't see us losing all of these, including 4 home games early even if we are playing somewhat poorly. Two of our tougher games, Princeton and Colorado, are at home which will help even things out for this young team. Only significant travel trip (vs Illinois) in chicago, otherwise SLC, Las Vegas and LA trips which are easy travel. This team can handle this preseason schedule without getting totally blown out of the water, which 9 losses would be. 6 losses to the toughest 6 teams could happen, but unlikely the way things are laid out for us. I give us 7 wins from "Gimmees" and "Should win" and half of the rest to get us to 10-3. If we gel a little sooner, I wouldn't be surprised to see us win 11,12 or 13 games. :crazy: :crazy:

SpiffCoug wrote:
I don't know what to expect from this team. We're so young, so new to each other that I don't know how they'll do. There was a ton of turnover in the off-season that the coaches have their work cut for them in getting everyone on the same page. I worry about team cliques (the Lone Peak 3, the graduate transfers, the incoming, non-RM freshmen, etc) that might affect team chemistry.



I think we have some real talented players, but I don't know if it will all come together this year.

I know the "lone peak 3" are the 3 we've all been waiting to see on the floor together, but doesn't BYU have a few more players from lone peak?

BYULV wrote:

BlueK wrote:

I could see BYU losing anywhere from 6-9 games BEFORE conference gets started.

Wow, is this serious hyperbole or TIC? We only have 13 preconference games to begin with and it is not a really tough slate of games to begin with. Which games can you see us realistically losing?



Princeton

Coppin St

Coastal Carolina

St. Louis

Valpo/Alabama

UVU

USU

USC

Weber St

Colorado

Illinois

Idaho St

CSU Bakersfield





Gimmees: Coppin, C. Carolina, Idaho, CSU-B



Should be wins: UVU, USU, Weber



Can Wins: Princeton, St. Louis (no idea how good they are), Valpo/alab, USC, Colorado, Illinois (no idea how good they are either).



In order to lose 9 games, we would have to lose all "Can Win" games, and all "Should win" games. 4 of those are at home and the others are neutral site games. We don't play a true road game until conference play, Jan. 5. I don't see us losing all of these, including 4 home games early even if we are playing somewhat poorly. Two of our tougher games, Princeton and Colorado, are at home which will help even things out for this young team. Only significant travel trip (vs Illinois) in chicago, otherwise SLC, Las Vegas and LA trips which are easy travel. This team can handle this preseason schedule without getting totally blown out of the water, which 9 losses would be. 6 losses to the toughest 6 teams could happen, but unlikely the way things are laid out for us. I give us 7 wins from "Gimmees" and "Should win" and half of the rest to get us to 10-3. If we gel a little sooner, I wouldn't be surprised to see us win 11,12 or 13 games. :crazy: :crazy:

Didn't say we WOULD lose 6-9. UVU is BYU light with a lot guys that would have contributed this year for BYU, could be a loss. princeton, like harvard last year, is going to give BYU fits. USU a toss up.



The rest of your can wins, could certainly see an additional 3-4 losses in there. I don't think 6-9 is hyperbole at ALL. I wouldn't bet that BYU loses 9 games before WCC play, but I don't thing 6 losses is unrealistic at all.