Political Polling Oct 24, 2016

This week's simulations continue much of what we have seen in the past weeks. Hillary Clinton winning with 342 votes (Trump never wins or ties). Expect four more years of democratic policies.



The map has had some slight changes. North Carolina is now solid democratic, but Ohio and Florida have both taken steps towards the republican. (Toss-up and Lean Democratic.) There are two other polling developments that are of interest. The first is that in several online polls, trump is doing better than phone polls. While methodology for online is different, the company that did this study weighted the results to the census. It will be interesting to see what result is more accurate.



The second is that in many polls there has been a sharp increase in other/undecided voters. Looking at the previous polls, the change appears to voters leaving Gary Johnson and Donald Trump.



In Utah polling, Evan McMullin won Utah 22% of the time. The last poll came out on the 20th, so the data still has Trump with a slight lead. I would expect that as polling continues, he will continues to rise.



Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.

293.0 334.0 341.0 342.1 352.0 411.0

What do you make of Real Clear Politics putting Texas in the "toss up" category? Where is Trump's support going? To Hillary? Or just away from him to undecided?



They also have Minnesota in that category. I can't see such a blue state going to the GOP, is that a lack of polling?

I just pulled up real clear politics, and they have Minnesota as lean Democrat. My guess is that you are correct, a shift was due to the lack of polling.



As for Texas, recent polling has been within the margin of error (Trump +3, +3, +4), but on the outer edges. These results have my methodology moving Texas to lean republican largely because all the polls are in the direction of the republican.

Looking forward to your latest numbers. I think it is getting closer.