Which would be better?

Below are two examples of an independent BYU schedule. Taking into consideration BYU's goals, including the dual needs of playing a tough enough schedule to be relevant, while not so tough that we lose relevance with too many losses, which kind of schedule would be better? Put the games in whatever order you'd like.





Example #1 - the more conservative approach



1. Utah

2. Utah State

3. Weber State/SUU

4. Hawaii

5. Boise State

6. Notre Dame

7. Army

8. Navy

9. Air Force

10. Stanford

11. Houston

12. Central Florida





Example #2 - the more ambitious approach



1. Utah

2. Utah State

3. Hawaii

4. Boise State

5. Notre Dame

6. Academy (rotate Army, Navy, Air Force)

7. Stanford

8. Baylor

9. Penn State

10. Texas A&M

11. Miami

12. Memphis

For me it would be the conservative approach.



In my opinion, beating Utah St. is always better than losing to Texas A&M.



If we played only 2-3 P5s each year, we would win more often, be ranked more often and be in better position for big time bowls and better recruits.



Playing 5-6 P5s each year certainly gives us a better chance for a playoff berth, but the reality is that almost all P5 programs consistently out recruit us and will have success against us more often than not.

I don't know, #1 has some hard games but a lot of average. #2 is harder. How about something in between. I would like to see more middle p5 like Texas Tech, Northwestern, Arizona games. Remove SUU and replace with a Syracuse.

Without question the latter if it could be done.



I really like this year's schedule. Three PAC-12 teams keeps things close to home while still boosting schedule. 1 Big 10, 1 SEC, then one of either Big 12 or ACC. So basically six games against P5. Notre Dame, Boise State and a Service Academy should be scheduled as often as possible, though not necessarily every year. Whatever you get past that doesn't matter much, so keep the USU rivalry and if Utah isn't one of the 3 PAC teams, then add them in as a fourth late in the year.



The biggest reason for doing so is the TV dollars. The more BYU schedules the P5 teams, the more people will watch and the more money flows to the program--regardless of game outcome. That will help attract coaches and recruits. Boise State's typical schedule is the first one. It used to be BYUs, but it just isn't going to help them improve over the years. They'll hit a ceiling and...well...we've already been there and done that.

I guess it depends on your goal. Set one would be better for NY6. Set two is better for Playoffs, and the set that I would prefer for scheduling. It leads to exciting games and keeps BYU in the forefront of national attention all season, as opposed to just the end of the year when they are undefeated. I like what someone else said about us playing many NY6 games throughout the season.

depends on the year. Honestly, it seems that half the P5 teams that BYU loses to or struggles against early in the season, every year, go on to have poor seasons and miss bowl games frequently.



This year it was UCLA and Miss St will be lucky to make a bowl.

Notre Dame doesn't deal honestly with us. I'm ok not scheduling them again.

Emphatically, example two. Four big reasons:



1: National relevance/recognition/exposure requires a competitive schedule.



2: Program strength development/maintaince requires ongoing experience playing against top competition. Gotta jump in and swim if you want to be a swimmer.



3: Recruiting is enhanced by a glamorous schedule. Most have agreed that recruiting would be enhanced by P5 membership. If that's not available, then a glorious, big boy schedule is just as good. And by big boys, I mean the top 50% of P5 programs, not Iowa St., Kansas, Indiana, Oregon St, etc. We should not only schedule the top 50%, but should also consistently strive to build a top 50 percentile schedule.



4: If we want for ESPN to continue placing value in an exclusive TV partnership with BYU (by renewing/enhancing contract), then we cannot shy away from daunting schedules. ESPN wants big time, nation-wide-audience games.



These things are more important than the odds of making a big-time post season bowl. They are also more important than merely maintaining a winning record against middling competition. BYU won't get attention that way, and would never get a sniff of the NFP with schedules like example one.



If we just want to feel good beating G5's, then we could go back to the MWC...... NOT!!!!!

In-between hybrid.



Utah, Utah St., Boise St., and Hawaii as annual games. Eventually get Utah St. back on a 2-for-1 schedule.



One of the military academies every single year. These games can get good ratings and exposure. Plus, Army and Navy road games give us good games in the Mid-Atlantic region.



FBS payday home game in late August every other year, as a 13th game when we play at Hawaii. MAC, CUSA, or Sun Belt schools, rather than FCS opponents.



We also need at least 2 other PAC opponents in addition to Utah, especially in California and Arizona. And then 2-3 more top-half P5 opponents from across the country. So, we get 5-6 P5 opponents each year, with at least 2 P5 home games.



Fill the remaining 2-3 games with quality AAC/MWC opponents.



2019 (new or moved games with * )



AUGUST

*Toledo (Week 0 payday home game)

Utah (Thursday night of "opening" weekend)



SEPTEMBER

BYE

USC

*at UConn

Washington*(moved back one week)



OCTOBER

at Utah St. (General Conference Friday)

at Washington St.

BYE

Boise St.*(moved back one week)



NOVEMBER

*Arkansas

*at Houston

*Air Force

at UMass

*at Hawaii



2020 Season



SEPTEMBER

at Arizona St.

Michigan St.

at Utah

*UCF



OCTOBER

Utah St. (General Conference Friday)

*at Navy

BYE

*Notre Dame

at Boise St.



NOVEMBER

Missouri

*at SDSU

*Hawaii

at Stanford



2021 Season



AUGUST

*UTEP (Week 0 payday home game)



SEPTEMBER

Arizona (in Las Vegas)

*Utah

Arizona St.

at USF



OCTOBER

*at Utah St. (General Conference Friday)

Boise St.

BYE

at Baylor

Virginia



NOVEMBER

*at SMU

*at Hawaii

*Army

at USC



2022 season



SEPTEMBER

*UConn

*at Utah

at Oregon

USF



OCTOBER

*Utah St. (General Conference Friday)

*at Air Force

BYE

*Kansas St.

at Boise St.*(moved back 3 weeks)



NOVEMBER

Baylor* (moved from TBD)

*at Arkansas

*Hawaii

at Stanford

I understand the desire 5-6 P5 teams. As a lifelong BYU fan, I was always more excited when BYU played teams like UCLA and Washington over any MWC/WAC opponent (including Utah). There is no question that on a game by game basis we get more respect by beating Washington than we do Wyoming.



The question needs to be asked, is scheduling 5-6 P5 teams best for the program? I would argue it isn't.



For the record, I love independence primarily for the tv deal. I love that BYU plays on channels that I can easily access more than almost anyone else in the country. It is also understood that financially BYU does better than any G5 team because of the tv deal. I wouldn't want to join a conference with an inferior tv situation.



But the reality is that we were more relevant nationally in our last years in the MWC than our time as an independent. Even though our tv deal was far worse than we are now, we were making less money, and playing fewer P5 teams; we won more games, were ranked more often and did a better job of recruiting than our current state.



In the MWC



Our regular season record from 2005-2010 was 52-19, a .732 win pct. Only 17% of our regular season games were against BCS/P5 teams. Our record against them was 5-7, a .417 win pct. Our consensus recruiting class rankings were as follows:



2010: 30, 2009: 51, 2008: 43, 2007: 45, 2006: 64



Average ranking 47.



Speaking of rankings, BYU was ranked in the AP poll for 42 weeks during this span. This included 4 final top 25 finishes.



Independence



(I'm going to assume we run the table for the rest of the year)



Our regular season record from 2011-2016 is 50-22, a .694 win pct. 39% of our regular season games came against BCS/P5 opponents (40% if we include Houston when the AAC was a BCS conference). Our record excluding Houston was 13-15, a .464 win pct.



Our consensus recruiting class rankings are as follows:



2015: 64, 2014: 66, 2013: 64, 2012: 72, 2011: 68



Average ranking 67. We spent 7 weeks in the AP top 25.



Can you imagine what our record would have looked like if we played 13 P5 teams over the last 6 years with the same win pct.?



2011: Actual regular season record 9-3. Replace Texas and Oregon St. with 2 MAC teams. New record 10-2. We beat Tulsa and finish 11-2 and enjoy our 5th AP top 25 finish in the last 6 years.



2012: 7-5. Replace Oregon St., Notre Dame and Georgia Tech with 3 CUSA teams. We finish 9-3 beat SDSU in the Poinsettia bowl. 10-3 final record maybe squeeze in to the top 25 given our established pedigree.



2013: 8-4. Replace Georgia Tech, Wisconsin and ND. Play 3 more MWC teams, but we lose one. Finish the season 9-3. Lose to UW in the Mac N Cheese Bowl. We finish 9-4.



2014: 8-4. Replace Cal with a Sun Belt team. No change. We lost Taysom and the bowl. 8-5 final record.



2015: 9-3. Replace Michigan and Missouri with 2 AAC teams. We lose one. Finish regular season 10-2, but our effort vs. Utah keeps us in the final top 25 at 10-3.



2016: 9-3. Replace UCLA, West Virginia, Michigan St, and Mississippi St with a bunch of G5s. Let's say we end up losing to one of them. We're 10-2 going into the Poinsettia Bowl against a 10-2 SDSU. We win of course and finish once again in the top 20.



Like I said earlier in the thread. Beating Utah St. is better than losing to Texas A&M. We would feel a lot better about our program if we won more games. Our recruiting would be better if we were regularly in the top 25 with our tv schedule. Let's embrace independence, but schedule like a MWC team.

I think it depends on the year. I agree that a win vs Utah State is better than losing to Texas A&M. I lean towards a softer schedule with more wins. I know the landscape is different now, but in the 80s we earned a lot of respect by beating up on a soft schedule year after year. Same in the MWC.



I think it should vary between 4-6 P5 schools per year. Start with 4 until we are getting double digit wins again. As the program improves schedule more and better P5 schools.



As a fan I prefer wins to loses, and I think we get more attention with a 10-2 record than a 6-6 record, regardless of how tough our schedule was.

Isola wrote:
I think it depends on the year. I agree that a win vs Utah State is better than losing to Texas A&M. I lean towards a softer schedule with more wins. I know the landscape is different now, but in the 80s we earned a lot of respect by beating up on a soft schedule year after year. Same in the MWC.



I think it should vary between 4-6 P5 schools per year. Start with 4 until we are getting double digit wins again. As the program improves schedule more and better P5 schools.



As a fan I prefer wins to loses, and I think we get more attention with a 10-2 record than a 6-6 record, regardless of how tough our schedule was.

See Boise St. They are 7-0 and ranked in the top-15 and the favorite for the MWC title and frontrunner for the Cotton Bowl. Boise St. has basically copied what BYU did in the '80's and '90's. The backup plan for Boise this year isn't that bad - Las Vegas Bowl against UCLA or Arizona St.



See also Houston. They are 6-1 and ranked in the top-15 and have a decent shot at the Cotton Bowl because they beat Oklahoma, despite a loss to Navy. Even if they fail to reach the Cotton Bowl, they still likely get an ACC opponent or Notre Dame in St. Pete or Maryland.



I'm conflicted. This really has been a fun and exciting season in many ways. However, a 4-4 record and no votes in the national rankings rub away a lot of the excitement.



But, we're *this* close to 6-2 or 7-1 or even 8-0 and a great national ranking and shot at a big bowl game.



But, we're also *that* close to 2-6 or 1-7 or even 0-8 and staying home for the holidays.



If BYU commits the resources to recruit competitively and retain coaches such that we can consistently be 6-2 or better against the 2016-type schedule, I think I would prefer Schedule #2.



However, I'm not convinced that this is the case. BYU would have a much easier path to shiny win-loss records and national rankings and relevancy with Schedule #1.

I'm starting to lean towards getting whatever P5 games we can in October and November (see Michigan St., Mississippi St., Georgia Tech, Oregon St., Missouri, Virginia, Stanford, USC).



Then, get or keep a couple of P5 games in September (with or without the Ewetes)...



and then round out the schedule with MWC/AAC/FCS opponents - some of which will be easier than others. Keep Boise St. and Utah St. as annual opponents.



Like the 2020 schedule, but drop Utah or ASU if they won't play in October and add some AAC games:



SEPTEMBER

*SMU/Tulane

Michigan St.

at Arizona St.

*at UConn/Temple



OCTOBER

Utah St.

*FCS

at Boise St.

at Northern Illinois

BYE



NOVEMBER

Missouri

*at Cincinnati/UCF/Houston

*Hawaii

at Stanford



4 P5 opponents, 2 at home, but more spread out, including 2 in November. Boise St. and Utah St. rivalry games. Home schedule of SMU, Michigan St., Utah St., FCS, Missouri, and Hawaii is pretty decent. But, more winnable games.



2021 could also work well:



SEPTEMBER

Arizona (in Las Vegas)

*UConn/Temple

Arizona St.

at USF



OCTOBER

*at Utah St.

Boise St.

at SMU/Tulane

BYE

Virginia



NOVEMBER

at Baylor

*FCS

*SDSU/Fresno

at USC



5 P5, 2 at home and one neutral in Las Vegas. But, spread out, with 3 in late October/November. Home schedule of Tulsa, Arizona St., Boise St., Virginia, FCS, SDSU.