Y
YzzazzWith the win over perennial B10 powerhouse MSU, it seems to me that BYU fans and pundits are willing to forgive a 3-3 record full of heartbreaks and jump on the bandwagon with the expectation of a win over the other MSU. I am concerned that the Bulldogs may make the game closer than everyone expects. They could even win it. Forecasting the outcome reduces to whether BYU has actually improved measurably, or if they just caught Sparty in a down year. I think the former...but I have been oh so wrong about the cougs many times in the past. (The memory of the USU game still makes me cringe!)
The evidence for improvement--now let me interrupt and quantify this. By improvement I mean they've REALLY made a fundamental move foreward. That if BYU were to magically have the chance to go replay their games they'd win 2 out of 3 of their losses, and further, if BYU were to match up against any of those three teams again in a bowl game, BYU would win--THAT'S the level of improvement I'm thinking of.
It's not a crazy idea--it might be true.
Evidence begins with admitting BYU's limitations: new coaching staff, new offensive and defensive schemes, and star seniors that were out most or all of last year. Any team the experiences such change isn't supposed to do well, but BYU has. The two losses were razor thin and could have easily been wins. The teams played close to their competition, and sometimes were lacking key talent. Only now, in the second half at East Lansing, the cougars revealed their true nature--or so the optimists among us would explain. It was the REAL BYU we saw that blew out Michigan State.
But part of me needs to say not so fast.
BYU may not be anything other than they have been all year to this point: a pretty good team that is still learning the new schemes. Consider two points: first, that Michigan State may be much worse than everyone gives credit for. The reality for that squad is that they could actually end up staying home for the holidays. If you could look forward and know that was going to be true, then you wouldn't think the last game was such a big win. You'd have simply expected it.
Why should that be true? Well for starters Wisconsin made them look terrible. And Indiana, who may actually be terrible, made them look mediocre at best. Consider also that if Taysom had gained a bit more confidence earlier in the game rather than later, BYU might easily have scored twice more in the first half, making the game look like a complete joke.
The win over Arizona, satisfying as it was at the time, has certainly lost its luster considering the wildcats performance since then which also includes Utah's recent overpowering win. Meanwhile the loss to UCLA looks more and more suspect as the Bruin squad struggles--especially if you recall that BYU was effectively out of the game before the fourth quarter started and UCLA was able to win the game from that point on, so it seemed, merely through clock management--which their coach astutely performed.
Is it possible that BYU is only improving at the rate that you'd expect a team to perform? That the Michigan State game was not some breakout performance?
If so the Mississippi State bulldogs will catch players, and fans, by surprise. Deep into the second quarter, the cougars will realize they have a battle on their hands and fans will have to hush themselves from being tempted to talk about Tanner Mangum again. That being said, the bulldogs are down this year and though even a weak SEC team can be a stiff challenge, they may not be up to the task of coming in and knocking off a surging cougar squad at elevation while coming off a short week of preparation in front of a non-conference opponent.
In my mind, the worst case scenario here is still a win, but potential nail biter nonetheless. Something like 14 to 13. If I'm wrong and BYU has made a breakout and vindicated Tom Holmoe and the coach he helped pick and the staff that coach selected, then the game should not be close BYU should win by more than 17 points and Jamal will break some records. Of course I'm hoping for that, but I think that no one should feel let down if it doesn't go that way. It is much more likely that this week the BYU squad will return to their mean performances and the game will be a defensive struggle. Anything better than that is really good news.
The evidence for improvement--now let me interrupt and quantify this. By improvement I mean they've REALLY made a fundamental move foreward. That if BYU were to magically have the chance to go replay their games they'd win 2 out of 3 of their losses, and further, if BYU were to match up against any of those three teams again in a bowl game, BYU would win--THAT'S the level of improvement I'm thinking of.
It's not a crazy idea--it might be true.
Evidence begins with admitting BYU's limitations: new coaching staff, new offensive and defensive schemes, and star seniors that were out most or all of last year. Any team the experiences such change isn't supposed to do well, but BYU has. The two losses were razor thin and could have easily been wins. The teams played close to their competition, and sometimes were lacking key talent. Only now, in the second half at East Lansing, the cougars revealed their true nature--or so the optimists among us would explain. It was the REAL BYU we saw that blew out Michigan State.
But part of me needs to say not so fast.
BYU may not be anything other than they have been all year to this point: a pretty good team that is still learning the new schemes. Consider two points: first, that Michigan State may be much worse than everyone gives credit for. The reality for that squad is that they could actually end up staying home for the holidays. If you could look forward and know that was going to be true, then you wouldn't think the last game was such a big win. You'd have simply expected it.
Why should that be true? Well for starters Wisconsin made them look terrible. And Indiana, who may actually be terrible, made them look mediocre at best. Consider also that if Taysom had gained a bit more confidence earlier in the game rather than later, BYU might easily have scored twice more in the first half, making the game look like a complete joke.
The win over Arizona, satisfying as it was at the time, has certainly lost its luster considering the wildcats performance since then which also includes Utah's recent overpowering win. Meanwhile the loss to UCLA looks more and more suspect as the Bruin squad struggles--especially if you recall that BYU was effectively out of the game before the fourth quarter started and UCLA was able to win the game from that point on, so it seemed, merely through clock management--which their coach astutely performed.
Is it possible that BYU is only improving at the rate that you'd expect a team to perform? That the Michigan State game was not some breakout performance?
If so the Mississippi State bulldogs will catch players, and fans, by surprise. Deep into the second quarter, the cougars will realize they have a battle on their hands and fans will have to hush themselves from being tempted to talk about Tanner Mangum again. That being said, the bulldogs are down this year and though even a weak SEC team can be a stiff challenge, they may not be up to the task of coming in and knocking off a surging cougar squad at elevation while coming off a short week of preparation in front of a non-conference opponent.
In my mind, the worst case scenario here is still a win, but potential nail biter nonetheless. Something like 14 to 13. If I'm wrong and BYU has made a breakout and vindicated Tom Holmoe and the coach he helped pick and the staff that coach selected, then the game should not be close BYU should win by more than 17 points and Jamal will break some records. Of course I'm hoping for that, but I think that no one should feel let down if it doesn't go that way. It is much more likely that this week the BYU squad will return to their mean performances and the game will be a defensive struggle. Anything better than that is really good news.