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Statistical Conclusions?

by Mars · 10/6/2016

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M
Mars


My theory going into statistical analysis-

BYU's defensive points allowed relies on the opponent's passing offense, and...

BYU's scoring depends on the opponent's rushing defense.



Arizona- (Sagarin 58th best, SOS of 38th)

Offense- Yards per game: 52nd. They scored 16 points.

Passing offense: 98th.

Offense- Points per game: 65th.

Rushing offense: 18th.



Rushing defense: 88th. We scored 18 points.

Passing defense: 106th.

Defense- Yards per game: 104th.

Defense- Points per game: 76th.



Utah- (Sagarin 41st best, SOS of 54th)

Offense- Yards per game: 64th. They scored 20 points.

Passing offense: 49th.

Offense- Points per game: 45th.

Rushing offense: 64th.



Rushing defense: 28th. We scored 19 points.

Passing defense: 41st.

Defense- Yards per game: 23rd.

Defense- Points per game: 20th.



UCLA- (Sagarin 20th best, SOS of 8th)

Offense- Yards per game: 67th. They scored 17 points.

Passing offense: 24th.

Offense- Points per game: 75th.

Rushing offense: 116th.



Rushing defense: 78th. We scored 14 points.

Passing defense: 24th.

Defense- Yards per game: 36th.

Defense- Points per game: 42nd.



WVU- (Sagarin 36th best, SOS of 36th)

Offense- Yards per game: 20th. They scored 35 points.

Passing offense: 18th.

Offense- Points per game: 67th.

Rushing offense: 53rd.



Rushing defense: 93th. We scored 32 points.

Passing defense: 65th.

Defense- Yards per game: 79th.

Defense- Points per game: 32nd.



Toledo- (Sagarin 37th best, SOS of 127th)

Offense- Yards per game: 3rd. They scored 53 points. [edited, thanks]

Passing offense: 6th.

Offense- Points per game: 8th.

Rushing offense: 32nd.



Rushing defense: 84th. We scored 55 points. [good catch frdbtr]

Passing defense: 15th.

Defense- Yards per game: 26th.

Defense- Points per game: 37th.



Conclusions-



BYU's defensive points allowed so far relies the most on the opponent's total offensive yards per game, with passing offense the second-most important factor. And...



BYU's offensive scoring depended the most on the opponent's rushing defense against Toledo and WVU (Toledo's defensive stats are inflated by a poor strength of schedule). Against UCLA and Utah, it depended more on the opponent's passing defense, which signifies an offensive shift from focusing on Taysom Hill passing more, to Jamaal Williams running more and Taysom passing less. The Arizona game appears to be a statistical outlier as a terrible offensive game, despite facing a weak defensive opponent. Again, which would show that Ty Detmer is improving as he goes as a new college offensive coordinator.
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frdbtr
I think you have the point totals backwards for the Toledo game.
M
Mars


Now, to make fancy guesses based on the above statistical analysis...



Michigan State- (Sagarin 52nd best, SOS of 24th)

Offense- Yards per game: 78th.

Passing offense: 68th.

Offense- Points per game: 105th.

Rushing offense: 69th.



Rushing defense: 16th.

Passing defense: 77th.

Defense- Yards per game: 29th.

Defense- Points per game: 51st.



http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/rushing/position/defense/sort/rushingYardsPerGame



I'll guess that Michigan State scores about... 20 points offensively (not including scoring off of turnovers). It would be less if BYU had more guys healthy. We need Butch Pau'u, both Warners, and Travis Tuiloma back, and losing Taulile hurts.



And I'll guess that BYU scores about... 13 points. This is the toughest defense that BYU has faced all year. Better than Utah, whose 6 turnovers made the game against BYU closer than it should have been on paper. They will shut Jamaal down like UCLA did, and winning the game will depend on Taysom's arm, which is a very scary proposition. Expect interceptions to be thrown... maybe even a couple pick-sixes. I won't bring up Tanner Mangum here (oops!).



The good news? IF the BYU defense can rebound to their form from the first 3 games of the season, and IF guys like Cobra Kai Nacua can take the ball away from the Spartans, and IF BYU doesn't turn the ball over themselves, then this becomes a very winnable ball game. A 3-1 turnover margin would likely give BYU a victory in a very tough road game. Sagarin actually predicts a 2-point BYU road win.



The bad news, of course, is that games against Mississippi State, at #19 Boise State, and at Cincinnati follow. BYU needs to pick up two wins in these next 4 games to be able to go into the season finale against Utah State bowl eligible already.
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Cougs_Rule
Mars, straight up great stuff!! You have nailed this team and analysis.

This is why BYU will not beat MSU, unless MSU does something really stupid.

At best this game is somewhat winnable as is 30-35% chance. To say it's very winnable is an overestimation. Like the strong rushing Ds have done they will take away Jw and TH and make TH beat them with his arm. Which isn't as bad of a prospect if it was only up to Ths throws. The bigger problem is our weak WRs who will be press covered and harassed by pretty good DBs with Refs who will let them play physical--just like at Michigan, and take out our passing game.

IF TH doesn't throw picks and IF Butch is back we can keep it close and maybe pull out a win like we almost have in other games.
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byufan4ever
I'm sure most people had Indiana at like, what a 5-10% chance to beat MSU? MSU will either be very discouraged by their two early losses and we steamroll them or they will be itching to get revenge on their next opponent (us) and they steamroll us. I predict this will be the first game that will be decided by more than 1 score (9+ points). And I'm going with a BYU win!!
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BroncoBot
well, so much for all that hot garbage. (actually mars thought it was a well though out conclusion) this team is officially unpredictable and I think MSU a little worse than anyone bargained for.



Great showing by TH. 67% and no ints and used his legs several times to extend drives. He made great decisions and showed a lot of "touch" on short routes. Receivers helped, line was great. I'd say it was probably the best BYU offense showing this year.



for all of you who are bent on having tanner get a shot, we saw that today as well. Win for everyone.
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frdbtr
BroncoBot wrote:
well, so much for all that hot garbage. (actually mars thought it was a well though out conclusion) this team is officially unpredictable and I think MSU a little worse than anyone bargained for.



Great showing by TH. 67% and no ints and used his legs several times to extend drives. He made great decisions and showed a lot of "touch" on short routes. Receivers helped, line was great. I'd say it was probably the best BYU offense showing this year.



for all of you who are bent on having tanner get a shot, we saw that today as well. Win for everyone.


What I am enjoying with this team is we are seeing improvement every week. The offense started poorly but has improved by a ton. The defense had a couple hiccups but got back on track today. I am loving seeing the improvement. I hope it continues. This team has a good shot at winning all the rest of it's games. If they take some more steps forward offensively and defensively, they even have a chance at beating BSU in a couple of weeks.
M
Mars
Things looked dicey after the first half and a couple failed 4th downs, but boy did BYU play a great 2nd half! Taysom managed the game VERY well, no turnovers, strong O-line and Dline play, and a defensive INT. And, perhaps most of all, JAMAAL!!



Boise State may be the only really scary game left. Then maybe SDSU or Air Force in a bowl. 10-3 would be a Top 25 finish.



P.S. With Houston losing to Navy, the G5 New Years bowl bid could come down to Boise and Toledo this year, and BYU could be 2-0 against them...
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scott715
That would be sweet. Navy has a shot too if BSU loses.
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