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YzzazzI know this is going to sound wildly optimistic, but I just spent an hour watching the first three drives of the Las Vegas bowl game and I have formed what I think is a sound opinion: Tanner Mangum lost that game for BYU.
Perhaps a more accurate way of saying it is, Utah's defensive line, with a healthy dose of help from Utah's offensive line, won the game, but when you consider how the remaining three quarters played out, I think the diagnosis sits squarely on Tanner, more than on the Utes admittedly stellar performance taking advantage of his mistakes.
The short of it is that Tanner made a rookie mistake in underestimating Utah's pressure defense which led to his first fumble/turnover. If he doesn't try to play the hero and pass to avoid a sack, Utah doesn't recover a fumble on the first drive. Second drive (pick six from a bounced ball off Blackmon's pads) we'll call a fluke. You can credit the coverage, sure, but you couldn't duplicate that outcome in 10 more plays. On the third drive Tanner parked his eyes on the intended receiver from almost before the snap and never checked down. Utah's DE noticeably backed off his rush and sat on the passing lane with the express intention of batting the ball down. He tipped it and the rest is history.
How often does a D-lineman KNOW he is going to get a good chance to bat a ball down with a good three seconds before it happens? Very rarely. That underscores how bad Mangum's error was in his technique. Likely he was a bit rattled and desperate, but regardless, that error cost BYU the game.
There's more that can be said, but that's enough. Those two coachable errors are enough to turn the tide in the game. If BYU punts on that first drive, and if BYU punts on its third drive also, neither of those scores take place, and the game is different (all Utah's scores were short field).
Make no mistake I"m not dumping on Tanner. He is on track to have the greatest success of any BYU quarterback in history. In some ways I wish he were starting today because I doubt he'd let Utah get the better of him again. All the same, he is THE guy we want in place if Taysom goes down.
But imagine that same game with Taysom at the helm. Taysom's arm strength alone prevents that first drive fumble. The possibility of a Taysom run nullifies the kind of pressure the Utes brought to Mangum. At a minimum the first and third drives don't yield points to Utah, and BYU wins that game.
And of course, Jamaal Williams. Just sayin.
Adding Taysom and Jamaal into the game isn't just a slight tweak, it's an enormous swing. My point in harping on Tanner's errors is to show that strange as it may seem, the Utah game last year was actually very close. VERY close. Even a slight swing would make the difference. BYU won't have just a slight swing in their favor, they will have a 150 yards rushing and 70+ percent passing efforts by the equivalent of 5th year seniors making their statement games of their career.
The only question mark will be BYU's defense. If Utah scores easily on BYU's defense, then this game could become something unexpected by most pundits: a track meet. There is almost 0 chance that this game will play out exactly like last week. The teams and circumstances are just too different. Remember what Ty Detmer's seasons where like? The first game was underwhelming, but the second game BYU would roll. That could happen here.
It's a different era, a different team, I know. But I'm imagining that the reason BYU looked so conservative last week was because the WERE conservative. Having proven (especially in the last minute of the game) that they are easily capable of playing a full speed against a Power 5 opponent with little discernible daylight in skill and talent, BYU will enter the game confident. All it will take will be a little success early on, and the divide between experience at the skill positions will translate into a growing gap.
By the middle of the fourth quarter I predict it will be BYU 27 Utah 17. But the margin could be much wider than that if Utah gets unlucky.
BYU should have been blown out last year, but the weren't. The game was surprisingly close and actually hinged on Utah's ability to captialize on some luck. I doubt it will happen again.
Perhaps a more accurate way of saying it is, Utah's defensive line, with a healthy dose of help from Utah's offensive line, won the game, but when you consider how the remaining three quarters played out, I think the diagnosis sits squarely on Tanner, more than on the Utes admittedly stellar performance taking advantage of his mistakes.
The short of it is that Tanner made a rookie mistake in underestimating Utah's pressure defense which led to his first fumble/turnover. If he doesn't try to play the hero and pass to avoid a sack, Utah doesn't recover a fumble on the first drive. Second drive (pick six from a bounced ball off Blackmon's pads) we'll call a fluke. You can credit the coverage, sure, but you couldn't duplicate that outcome in 10 more plays. On the third drive Tanner parked his eyes on the intended receiver from almost before the snap and never checked down. Utah's DE noticeably backed off his rush and sat on the passing lane with the express intention of batting the ball down. He tipped it and the rest is history.
How often does a D-lineman KNOW he is going to get a good chance to bat a ball down with a good three seconds before it happens? Very rarely. That underscores how bad Mangum's error was in his technique. Likely he was a bit rattled and desperate, but regardless, that error cost BYU the game.
There's more that can be said, but that's enough. Those two coachable errors are enough to turn the tide in the game. If BYU punts on that first drive, and if BYU punts on its third drive also, neither of those scores take place, and the game is different (all Utah's scores were short field).
Make no mistake I"m not dumping on Tanner. He is on track to have the greatest success of any BYU quarterback in history. In some ways I wish he were starting today because I doubt he'd let Utah get the better of him again. All the same, he is THE guy we want in place if Taysom goes down.
But imagine that same game with Taysom at the helm. Taysom's arm strength alone prevents that first drive fumble. The possibility of a Taysom run nullifies the kind of pressure the Utes brought to Mangum. At a minimum the first and third drives don't yield points to Utah, and BYU wins that game.
And of course, Jamaal Williams. Just sayin.
Adding Taysom and Jamaal into the game isn't just a slight tweak, it's an enormous swing. My point in harping on Tanner's errors is to show that strange as it may seem, the Utah game last year was actually very close. VERY close. Even a slight swing would make the difference. BYU won't have just a slight swing in their favor, they will have a 150 yards rushing and 70+ percent passing efforts by the equivalent of 5th year seniors making their statement games of their career.
The only question mark will be BYU's defense. If Utah scores easily on BYU's defense, then this game could become something unexpected by most pundits: a track meet. There is almost 0 chance that this game will play out exactly like last week. The teams and circumstances are just too different. Remember what Ty Detmer's seasons where like? The first game was underwhelming, but the second game BYU would roll. That could happen here.
It's a different era, a different team, I know. But I'm imagining that the reason BYU looked so conservative last week was because the WERE conservative. Having proven (especially in the last minute of the game) that they are easily capable of playing a full speed against a Power 5 opponent with little discernible daylight in skill and talent, BYU will enter the game confident. All it will take will be a little success early on, and the divide between experience at the skill positions will translate into a growing gap.
By the middle of the fourth quarter I predict it will be BYU 27 Utah 17. But the margin could be much wider than that if Utah gets unlucky.
BYU should have been blown out last year, but the weren't. The game was surprisingly close and actually hinged on Utah's ability to captialize on some luck. I doubt it will happen again.