Spiff's Spots of Observation and Other Statistical Nonsense

It's back! My observations and analysis of the box score.



Observations:

• I did not believe Oldroyd would make the kick. I had zero confidence that BYU was going to win that game.


• Taysom looked comfortable with the offense. I did not see him rushing the play or his throws.


• As proof of the comfortability, I submit Taysom's 125.38 Passing Efficiency Rating (PER) in the 1st Half and his 156.05 2nd Half PER.


• While he looked comfortable, and did not look hesitant, he did look somewhat off. It's tough to describe, but he played conservatively. Whether that was by design and not trying to show too much to Arizona and saving some for Utah, I don't know. Maybe he just needs to regain confidence in his foot. This was likely the first time he was finally able to go 100% and just needs time to rediscover what he can do at 100%.


• Jamaal Williams was a beast. He ran strong and confidently. He will have a great season.


• However, 29 carries may be too much for him game-in and game-out. Last year, BYU fans, correctly, told Utah fans that Devonte Booker would get hurt carrying such a heavy load of the Ute offense. BYU needs another RB (Squally Canada?) to step up and play a larger and effective role.


• Jonah Trinnaman looked very good. As did Moroni Laulu-Pututau. They might be our two best WRs this year.


• Mitchell Juergens was noticeably missing. BYU needed that check-down WR.


• The defense played better than I thought they would. But they need Tuiloma to get healthy. Tanielu struggled the handful of times I focused on him.


• The LB corps was strong. Pau'u was and will be a solid MLB. Bernad was great at OLB, but he's too big to wear #13. He needs a bigger number - something in the 30s or 40s.


• Ty Detmer will be a very good
  
  play caller. In Anae's first game as an OC and play caller, BYU gained 338 yards. In Doman's first game as an OC and play caller, BYU gained 316 yards. And both of them had experience in FBS coaching. Detmer was in small, private high school conference last year.


• Sitake improved to 1-0 (1.000) against teams in a red helmet. Bronco was 11-8 (.579).


• BYU won the PER battle (142.3-112.97). The team with the better PER has won 11 straight BYU games and 20 of the last 22 games (.909).


• BYU ran 16 plays in the blue zone. That's more blue zone plays than all but in one game last year. However, BYU only scored 18 points on its four trips. At a minimum they should have had at least 20.


• The Cougars also weren't terribly explosive on offense. They had just two plays of 20 or more yards, the fewest since they had just one at Michigan last year.


• But they did have 13 plays of 10-19 yards, which would have been tied for second most last year.


• The last time BYU scored 18 points, it was in an 35-18 loss to USC in 2003.


• The last time the Cougars scored 18 points in a win was in an 18-13 win at Hawaii in 1984.

And as in previous seasons, I will also post the Receiver Efficiency Rating where I apply the PER formula to receivers with targets as attempts. In theory, this gives us an idea of which receivers are being effective and perhaps who should be targeted more.



Receiver Efficiency Rating

• Marshall, TE 221.80


• Brown, RB 217.60


• Pearson, WR 208.16


• Williams, RB 184.00


• Trinnaman, WR 144.51


• Laulu-Pututau, WR 135.27


• Balderee, TE 121.00


• Kurtz, WR 87.80
  
  Positions


• RB 200.80


• TE 171.40


• WR 151.98

And after next week, I'll start the BYU vs Opponent Averages, where I look at how BYU performed compared to the opponent's season averages.

This is really really good stuff

I agree with pretty much all of your opinions in that post and appreciate the stats. I also thought we were going to miss that field goal.

Jarhead wrote:
I agree with pretty much all of your opinions in that post and appreciate the stats. I also thought we were going to miss that field goal.

Ditto. Special teams was my biggest concern this offseason. So glad I was wrong.

Jarhead wrote:
I agree with pretty much all of your opinions in that post and appreciate the stats. I also thought we were going to miss that field goal.

You guys can pat yourselves on the back. I gave it up when Arizona scored. It was after 11 pm but I wish I'd have held on another 5 minutes. On the other hand I had a wonderful surprise next morning to go to church with.



I am pleased that the team didn't give up and Oldroid stepped up (and kicked) big.

Great analysis. Your thoughts on the game are very close to mine. I enjoyed Detmer's play calling, I don't remember any head scratcher calls. I felt that the play calling was vanilla though, I don't know if that is because they were holding back the play book or because they haven't installed the whole offense yet. The offense didn't feel like it had a flow though but I think that will come with more time calling plays for Detmer. The defense was fantastic. They gave up 16 points to a team that rarely scores out of the 30's. I am more than pleased with the defense in all facets. Remove a couple of plays where guys were out of their assignment and Arizona only ends up with 3 points on the night. I had a lot of skepticism about the coaching change but hoped for the best. I saw what I was hoping for on Saturday. I'm not going to proclaim greatness yet but we have seen a great start!

I spent much of the last two weeks maligning Sitake and his attempts to play defense against RichRod. I was very pleased with how well prepared the defense was for the AZ attack. Great effort.

Cougarfan87 wrote:

I agree with pretty much all of your opinions in that post and appreciate the stats. I also thought we were going to miss that field goal.

Ditto. Special teams was my biggest concern this offseason. So glad I was wrong.

Am I the only one who believed that we'd make it? I turned to Hawkwing and said, "We got this. He's going to make it. I know it."



First time I've ever been positive at the end of a game. Maybe I'll stick with it! 8)

The Wife of Hawkwing wrote:

Jarhead wrote:
I agree with pretty much all of your opinions in that post and appreciate the stats. I also thought we were going to miss that field goal.

Ditto. Special teams was my biggest concern this offseason. So glad I was wrong.

Am I the only one who believed that we'd make it? I turned to Hawkwing and said, "We got this. He's going to make it. I know it."



First time I've ever been positive at the end of a game. Maybe I'll stick with it! 8)

I also thought he would make it. The fact the coaches thought they'd seen enough from him only in practice to send him out there in that situation speaks volumes.

The Wife of Hawkwing wrote:

Jarhead wrote:
I agree with pretty much all of your opinions in that post and appreciate the stats. I also thought we were going to miss that field goal.

Ditto. Special teams was my biggest concern this offseason. So glad I was wrong.

Am I the only one who believed that we'd make it? I turned to Hawkwing and said, "We got this. He's going to make it. I know it."



First time I've ever been positive at the end of a game. Maybe I'll stick with it! 8)

Gotta love you , Mrs. H. 8)

Thanks for the analysis, Spiff. It was great.

Thanks for the analysis, Spiff. It was great.

The Wife of Hawkwing wrote:

Jarhead wrote:
I agree with pretty much all of your opinions in that post and appreciate the stats. I also thought we were going to miss that field goal.

Ditto. Special teams was my biggest concern this offseason. So glad I was wrong.

Am I the only one who believed that we'd make it? I turned to Hawkwing and said, "We got this. He's going to make it. I know it."



First time I've ever been positive at the end of a game. Maybe I'll stick with it! 8)

I admit I was doubting Thomas. She was Believing Betty. I'm a better man for it!

SpiffCoug wrote:
I spent much of the last two weeks maligning Sitake and his attempts to play defense against RichRod. I was very pleased with how well prepared the defense was for the AZ attack. Great effort.

I've been trying to be quiet about my confidence in Sitake's ability to coach defense, I was hoping I was wrong. Having said that, and I am not trying to take anything away from Sitake, but that defense was coached by Tuiaki and Ed Lamb, if we start giving credit to the head coach after he has appointed someone the defensive coordinator we do the coaches responsible for the players performance a disservice. I am really excited about the defense. Tuiaki has proven to be able to get his guys prepared for a very difficult offense and come out looking great. I hope it continues once other teams have had a chance to see his tendencies and adjust.

I definitely believed we were going to make that kick. Magic happens, baby, especially for kids that have just returned from missions, or who have just put in their papers. :)



I felt like the lack of big plays was partially a product of game plan and play calling (not a lot of passing, period, but not a lot of deep routes, either, lots of running to take advantage of matchups in the line), and partially due to dumb penalties. Williams had two huge runs either partially or fully negated due to penalties. Once we needed to move a little more quickly on the final drive, all of a sudden we get a wide-open crossing route for big yards, a run for big yards, and we moved right down the field.



My favorite plays were the TE bootleg passes. I knew Detmer would have that in his plan somewhere, since we did that plenty when he was playing, but it makes even more sense with a guy like Taysom at QB. Get the defensive line and one half of the secondary out of the equation, and make the LB choose between stopping Taysom Hill from running for a TD while allowing an easy 10 yard+ completion, or covering that TE and watch Taysom blow by you like you're stuck in concrete. Love it! And since I don't know how many defenses these days have to deal with old school concepts like naked bootlegs and big receiving TEs, hopefully it will continue to surprise them and be wide open every time.



Another observation I made was the defensive alignments we used. I was looking for a 4-3 on the first play, and what do you know, there's only 3 guys with a hand on the ground. I had some worries that we would be too vanilla on defense with a brand new staff, and give up a lot of points. We do need to work on gap discipline, though, because when you are in the true 4-3 you have one less guy there as a second line of defense, and that showed in the big runs AZ had at the end.



It seemed like there were very few times where AZ completed a pass without someone right on him. There was one where Davis was pretty shallow in zone coverage and a receiver got in behind him, and another towards the end where they had a big pass on a slant that went into a gap between defenders. Other than that, though, I was pleased with the coverage, and relative lack of big runs that you sometimes get with man coverage in a 4-3.



Finally, punt / kick coverage was awesome. I think we allowed one big return all night, and Linehan was dropping laser guided bombs all night. I mean, if we still had Danny Sorensen running down there to cover, we would have had 5 punts downed inside the 5.

Does anyone know BYU's record when wearing the "surrender-whites"?

snoscythe wrote:
Does anyone know BYU's record when wearing the "surrender-whites"?

8-7 (.533) since 2010.

3-1 (.750) at neutral locations.

3-6 (.333) on the road.

2-0 (1.000) at home.

BlueK wrote:

Cougarfan87 wrote:

I agree with pretty much all of your opinions in that post and appreciate the stats. I also thought we were going to miss that field goal.

Ditto. Special teams was my biggest concern this offseason. So glad I was wrong.

Am I the only one who believed that we'd make it? I turned to Hawkwing and said, "We got this. He's going to make it. I know it."



First time I've ever been positive at the end of a game. Maybe I'll stick with it! 8)

I also thought he would make it. The fact the coaches thought they'd seen enough from him only in practice to send him out there in that situation speaks volumes.

My add to the observations:



First off I hope BYU doesn't issue him official cleats going forward and Oldroyd keeps wearing his neon green cleats.



Second per Desmond Howard on BYU's age hustle, even the BYU players name agree with him, you can't spell Jake's name without OLD as part of it!



Third, a little more serious, I don't know when the coaches were able to get a look at him, he only practiced the first two days of fall camp before he hurt his knee and had to have it operated on, just getting back to practice game week. He wasn't going to travel with the team but Jonny Linehan talked the coaches into taking him on the trip! Not only can the guy punt like crazy but now he has a great eye for spotting good place kickers as well.

frdbtr wrote:

I spent much of the last two weeks maligning Sitake and his attempts to play defense against RichRod. I was very pleased with how well prepared the defense was for the AZ attack. Great effort.

I've been trying to be quiet about my confidence in Sitake's ability to coach defense, I was hoping I was wrong. Having said that, and I am not trying to take anything away from Sitake, but that defense was coached by Tuiaki and Ed Lamb, if we start giving credit to the head coach after he has appointed someone the defensive coordinator we do the coaches responsible for the players performance a disservice. I am really excited about the defense. Tuiaki has proven to be able to get his guys prepared for a very difficult offense and come out looking great. I hope it continues once other teams have had a chance to see his tendencies and adjust.

I loved the quote in the game that was attributed to Sitake about calling the defense. He said words to the effect of "I have those coordinators there for a reason. However they call the game is exactly how I would have called it." What a great way to nip any second guessing of coordinators in the bud. That's a great statement from a head coach

ABYUFAN wrote:

SpiffCoug wrote:
I spent much of the last two weeks maligning Sitake and his attempts to play defense against RichRod. I was very pleased with how well prepared the defense was for the AZ attack. Great effort.

I've been trying to be quiet about my confidence in Sitake's ability to coach defense, I was hoping I was wrong. Having said that, and I am not trying to take anything away from Sitake, but that defense was coached by Tuiaki and Ed Lamb, if we start giving credit to the head coach after he has appointed someone the defensive coordinator we do the coaches responsible for the players performance a disservice. I am really excited about the defense. Tuiaki has proven to be able to get his guys prepared for a very difficult offense and come out looking great. I hope it continues once other teams have had a chance to see his tendencies and adjust.

I loved the quote in the game that was attributed to Sitake about calling the defense. He said words to the effect of "I have those coordinators there for a reason. However they call the game is exactly how I would have called it." What a great way to nip any second guessing of coordinators in the bud. That's a great statement from a head coach

He learned well from LaVell's example.