Way too early final record poll

BYU has potentially 20 games remaining (16 conference games, 1 non-conf game [UTEP] and 3 MWC Tourney game). What is BYU's final record?

I voted 30-5; I think that's a fair expectation that would still be quite an accomplishment.

I vote for a perfect 20-0 finish. Cause I'll be disappointing in anything less.

I call it 17-3 to finish the regular season.

I think we win out at home, lose 1 or 2 out of UNVL, NM or SDSU, but not all three. Most likely will beat UNLV in LV this year, I think we match up better and have a better road attitude this year. NM will be tough in the pit and at SDSU anything could happen depending on who shows up to play for the Aztecs. The rest of the road games should be wins if we don't pull a duffer like at the Spectrum.

So these numbers assume that BYU will either win the conference tournament or lose in the Championship game. I'd say that's a generally fair assumption, however, I could easily see a tie for the regular season title shared between multiple teams like last year, and then it would all come down to the tiebreaker for seeding. If we are to assume that New Mexico and UNLV are the toughest teams to beat this year, and San Diego State hot on their heels, our second round game could be just as fraught with peril as last years', no matter what seed we get in the conference tourney (again, I'm assuming we'd be a 1-4 seed). The 2nd round game is no gimmee. I was EXTREMELY trepidatious when I saw that San Diego State was going to be the 4-seed to our 1-seed last year. After what our team (okay, Jimmer) did to them in the second half at their place, I just KNEW they'd be playing for wounded pride on top of everything else in that game. I really think we'd have done better against either Utah or New Mexico, and they were the higher seeds.



Which, as long as I'm rambling, brings me to another point that I've always mentally tripped over as it regards tourney seeding. In a tiebreaker, if the records between the tied teams are identical, you go by the record against the highest ranked team and work your way down. Fair enough, I can accept that, because it's always been done that way. It got us the 1-seed last year. The reason for my cerebral stumble, however, is that in essence, that's saying the best team is the one that loses to the worst opponent (in our case last year, it was UNLV). I realize that's not the intent, but the only way you win a tiebreaker is by beating a team with a better record that the other teams couldn't manage beating, yet remaining tied with them because you've in fact lost to a lesser team that they've beaten to be tied with you.

Now, lest you all think I'm missing the point, I do have it. You're comparing the teams against the best of the competition, "best" meaning whoever ends up with fewest overall losses in conference. It still tickles my wait-a-sec reflex.



What tells you more about a team? Two wins against an 11-5 San Diego State, something Utah and New Mexico couldn't brag, or two losses against a 9-7 UNLV, which Utah and New Mexico were at least able to dispatch once in two tries? I mean, this is a UNLV team that lost to six of their eight conference foes, including TWO losses to the aforementioned SDSU. We get the 1-seed for stubbing our toe twice on THAT?



I just think it's more "forgiveable" to lose to a decent team in SDS the way NM and Utah did, than to lay an egg on a mediocre team in UNLV like BYU did. Yet according to the rules, that gives BYU the 1-seed. Interesting.



Oh well, sorry, Kitic, for hijacking your thread. Not really deserving of its own, more a late night rant that I thought I'd pour myself into rather than work myself up about how pathetically our conference just embarrassed themself in a BCS Bowl.



In answer to your question, I don't see BYU beating any of the other of the "Big 4" at their place, but I do see an undefeated homestand from here on out. And maybe this is just a bit of fatalism coming out due to my consternation from the aforementioned conference embarrassment, but I do see us losing in the Conf Champ game. 2 biggest reasons why:

1. Personal. I was SO sure it would be our year last year. SUCH high hopes. I KNEW Vegas couldn't do it to us, even if they managed to beat SDSU in their first round game (which I was expecting after SDS beat them 2x; it's HARD to beat a team 3x in one season. SDS proved that they could, then proved to us that we couldn't. Shoot, even freaking AIR FORCE almost made us choke on our third tilt with them, and they were a freaking NINE-SEED). I've reached a point where I'll have to see it to believe it. Sure this team's better than last years'. I'll still not torture myself with hopes if I haven't seen ENOUGH (not "anything," mind, but "enough") to assuage my fears we'll fall before hoisting the tourney trophy.

2. Analytical. We're still the cock of the conference walk. That's worth a few vengeance points right there to ANY of the other teams. We could literally be anywhere between 1 and 4 (yes, at the end of all this, we could have a 4 way tie between us, NM, LV, and SDS at 3 losses apiece, all away to each other. Who KNOWS which team would get which seed in that instance). We'll win our first round game against the 5-8/9 handily, then beat, but be tired out by whichever of the big 4 we see in the semi, leaving us out of gas for the final. Still, maybe with only 5 losses, we'll actually get a 7-seed (but I doubt it. Again, I'll believe it when I see it).



So yeah. 14-1 plus 13-3 plus 2-1 = 29-5, no Conference Tourney Title, and another 8-seed. Ugh.

Oh yeah, plus 1-0 against UTEP = 30-5. Still no Conference Tourney Title, still an 8-seed. Ugh.

GolfDiveNCougs wrote:
(yes, at the end of all this, we could have a 4 way tie between us, NM, LV, and SDS at 3 losses apiece, all away to each other. Who KNOWS which team would get which seed in that instance).

Huh. I got curious and just found the answer to my question:



http://www.themwc.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/mwc/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/mwc-09-seeding-policies

If teams remain tied after all tie breakers have been exhausted, the last tie-breaker when determining seeds for the Conoco MWC Basketball Championships shall be team RPI, as determined by the most recent NCAA RPI available on Saturday, March 6, 2010.

Hmm. So basically if the "big 4" all win against each other at home, and lose to no one else, nothing in essence will have changed in our RPI between before conference play started and after conference play ended, comparatively. So this last tiebreaker is a roundabout way of saying we'll NOW take your OOC schedule into consideration, not unlike the idiot final Big-12 tiebreaker rule/popularity contest "Highest BCS Ranking" that screwed Texas and Texas Tech Football out of a shot last year. In a popularity contest, Oklahoma > Texas > TTech. DUH. The idiots in the Big 12 who agreed to that "tiebreaker" deserved what they got. But I digress. Our tiebreaker here is better, but not much, because RPI between completely equal conference opponents is the same as comparing their RPI's as if conference play hadn't occurred, which NEITHER team can control. You can't control who you play, and even if you could, you can't control how good they are any given year, or even any given night!!! If it's a conference tiebreaker, it should be settled by and ONLY by what happens IN CONFERENCE.



Okay, NOW I'm going to bed.

Wow, GDNC. Impressive. I just don't see us losing four road games. We haven't lost four conference road games under Rose and I can't see his best team doing that for the first time.

I just wanted to point out that we are an early projection as a six seed:



http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

I'm the lone voter for a 33-2 record. I realize it will be hard and may even be unlikely. Maybe it's just the optimist in me, but I just don't think the other teams are as strong or as deep as BYU this year. Tyler Haws and Brandon Davies are really coming into their own and Jimmer and Jackson are playing like men possessed. Hartstock is solid. If JT can just get back some of his scoring touch and if they can actually incorporate Miles into the game plan occasionally, I don't see a team in the country that could beat us on a neutral floor. There's just so many weapons.



I've ranted before about the loss to a USU team that isn't anywhere near as good as the one we beat last year. That said, roadies can be tough. And as I've also said, all it takes is one key player from each team having an off/break-out night to swing the balance. Against USU, the whole team seemed to have an off-second-half. But I'd like to think we have enough depth to overcome a player or two going into a funk. And most of the other teams in conference lost their big stars from last year. Plus, we've got a bunch of grizzled vets on this team. The reason they were picked to win the conference is because of all the returning experience. They've played at the T&M and the Pit before. They know what it's like. Consequently they'll be more prepared for it when those games come around again.

kitic77 wrote:
Wow, GDNC. Impressive. I just don't see us losing four road games. We haven't lost four conference road games under Rose and I can't see his best team doing that for the first time.

Right, but I'm not saying we'll lose 4 regular season conference road games. I'm saying I could see BYU, NM, SDS and LV all losing their away game to eachother (so 3 away losses), and then BYU losing in the Conference Tourney. If we can't win it all, obviously I hope we'd win our semi-match, but if it's a crapshoot between all of the big 4, there are no guarantees we'd even get the 2nd round W either (a point I didn't ever really solidify in last night's diatribe). On top of all that, there are 2 or 3 teams in the league this year outside of the "big 4" that, given a bad night on our part, and a sell-your-soul-to-satan night on their part, could easily run us into a loss as well. Now, I agree with you, Kitic, if that were to occur, I could see us taking a second one away from a "big 4" like we did last year, if we call last year's SDS a "big," and humorously enough (considering my rant last night), assuming the rest of this year's big 4 took care of business like they should, would once again garner us a 1-seed.



And not to be contrary (okay, well, only a little), but we did lose 4 roadies in Dave's first year coaching, and the 1st round game in the tourney (that's the idiot game against the Utes that if Plaisted had any idea how to catch and put back a rebound that falls THROUGH HIS HANDS, we'd likely have won the entire tourney (I mean if #7 Wyoming turned around, beat Utah, then took SDSU to OT, why the heck couldn't we have?!?!)).

We also lost 3 roadies and in the tourney last year, and I think we have stiffer competition in conference this year, so even with an improved team, I wouldn't consider it a stretch to see us match that (hopefully without the home loss, however).

BYU's MWC road record in 2005-2006:

@ Air Force 59-75 L

@ UNLV 72-82 L

@ SDSU 88-66 W

@ CSU 86-84 W

@ UNM 77-71 W

@ Utah 60-79 L

@ Wyoming 74-68 W

@ TCU 81-72 W



Final Road conf record: 5-3

The San Diego State away game was a loss, 61-88.

Okay, I was a bit optimistic in my guess, but why not, it's the beginning of the season. ;)



I have us going 31 and 4. Why? Because I want them to.



Seriously though, I figure we could run the table at home so our other loses would come on the road. We'll likely lose at UNLV, UNM and SDSU. We have a chance of beating UNM at the pit. Rose has a good record there. We're terrible in Vegas and okay in San Diego. And, yes I am predicting we'll win the Las Vegas Invitational (again, because I want them to and feel we are due). :crazy:



I may change my prediction in a few weeks.

Ok. I was going off of Cougar Stats (http://www.cougarstats.com/hoops/2005-06/index.html) which had it as a win. I stand corrected.

I see us as the best team in the conference (for the fourth year in a row), but I don't think we get through six games against UNLV, UNM, and SDSU without dropping two of them.

Here's how I see it.



BYU is not an extremely talented, dominating team that can beat you inside or outside. BYU is a very good team with a fairly impressive guard line (when they can hit shots), but our inside game is a bit soft. Still, Hartsock is impressive in that he plays very smart, has a high shooting percentage, and battles and hustles for rebounds. That said, BYU can beat every team in the league...easily on a good night. However, UNM, UNLV and SDSU probably can too, and every team knows they have to win their home games, so they really get up for them and get after BYU when they come to play.



I too think BYU will lose a couple of away games, but these guys are surprising me every week, so maybe they won't. Our ace here, is Jimmer, the guy is a heck of a player, with him healthy and on his game (which is most of the time), BYU will be hard to beat, at BYU or on the road. If our guys stay healthy, and Jimmer gets over the flu, BYU will win the conference and be the #1 seed in the tournament. Still, they have to beat all those good teams, again, to win the tournament, but maybe this is the year we can win that thing.



And I don't doubt this is the year we win a game or two in the NCAA tournament.

bball wrote:
...That said, BYU can beat every team in the league...easily on a good night. However, UNM, UNLV and SDSU probably can too, and every team knows they have to win their home games, so they really get up for them and get after BYU when they come to play.

BYU has now also shown that they can beat conference opponents when they don't hvae a good night. UNM played poorly -- 35% shooting, 38% 3s, 65% FTs, outrebounded by 9 -- at SDSU and didn't win. The question now is can BYU play poorly on the road and still win? I think they can. This team wants to win. And they find ways to do so.