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Time to Re-assess Trump's Chances

by Ddawg · 7/27/2016

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Ddawg
I have read posts from some folks here predicting a certain Trump defeat in November. Some have even predicted a whopping, lopsided, historical Trump defeat. Not so fast. The current polls are telling a different story.



Nate Silver (a committed Democrat) runs a polling operation called "FiveThirtyEight" (or 538). He uses hard numbers and analysis to predict outcomes of politics, sports, and economics.



1. Five-Thirty-Eight "now cast" predicts, if the election were held today:

Trump wins 57.5% chance

Hillary wins 42.5% chance



2. In the USC Dorslife/LA Times Presidential election Poll:

Trump 47%

Hillary 40.4%



3. CNN/ORC Poll:

Trump 48%

Hillary 45%



4. CBS News poll:

Trump 44%

Hillary 43%



5. Politico today posted LA Times/USC Poll:

Trump 47%

Hillary 40%





Yes, Trump got a nice convention bounce. Hillary will probably experience the same. The fact is, this is going to be a nasty election where the outcome is going to be closer than anyone thought - down to the wire.
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SpiffCoug
Further proof of just how awful a candidate Trump is. If the GOP could have nominated someone who was likable (Rubio?) they'd be up 10+ points right now.
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Ddawg
SpiffCoug wrote:
Further proof of just how awful a candidate Trump is. If the GOP could have nominated someone who was likable (Rubio?) they'd be up 10+ points right now.


Maybe. Interesting assessment, considering Marco Rubio could not even win his home state Florida in the 2016 GOP Primary.



Florida Primary

1. Trump 45.7%, 1,077,221 votes

2. Rubio 27%, 636,653 votes

3. Cruz 17.1%, 403,640 votes

4. Kasich 6.8% , 159,412 votes
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Guest
I predict a Reagan over Mondale-esque election result.



A vote for an evil person is an endorsement of evil.
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Ddawg
hawkwing wrote:
I predict a Reagan over Mondale-esque election result.



A vote for an evil person is an endorsement of evil.


Exactly. And the most corrupt, dishonest, evil person to ever receive a nomination and run for the U.S. presidency is Hillary Clinton. Chronic liar and evil. Hillary and Bill are Gadianton Inc.
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billbillbillbill
I'm actually quite interested to see what the future wikileaks e-mails contain. There is a lot of chatter that they have a lot more to release. I was actually surprised with the amount of coverage and fallout that occurred from the set released before the convention. Before the FBI wussed out, I had fully believed that Hillary would pull out and Biden would jump in and be the unbeatable hero. I imagine this could still be possible but as it gets closer to November, that will become harder and harder.



Should be interesting.
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Guest
Ddawg wrote:
I predict a Reagan over Mondale-esque election result.



A vote for an evil person is an endorsement of evil.


Exactly. And the most corrupt, dishonest, evil person to ever receive a nomination and run for the U.S. presidency is Hillary Clinton. Chronic liar and evil. Hillary and Bill are Gadianton Inc.


Yes, all those things are exactly right, along with her biggest supporter, Donald Trump, the most maniacal, evil individual to ever receive a nomination to run for U.S. presidency.
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Ddawg
hawkwing wrote:
hawkwing wrote:
I predict a Reagan over Mondale-esque election result.



A vote for an evil person is an endorsement of evil.


Exactly. And the most corrupt, dishonest, evil person to ever receive a nomination and run for the U.S. presidency is Hillary Clinton. Chronic liar and evil. Hillary and Bill are Gadianton Inc.


Yes, all those things are exactly right, along with her biggest supporter, Donald Trump, the most maniacal, evil individual to ever receive a nomination to run for U.S. presidency.


Disagree. Have you ever had any personal business dealings with Trump? Have you ever sat across the table and had "behind closed door" 1 on 1 business dealings and private conversations with him?
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Ddawg
The answer to the above questions is "No." I have posted this before, but will again. I have a personal friend. I just spent 2 weeks at his house over the 4th of July. He has had several big real estate deals with Trump - over a number of years. He has sat behind closed doors and had private "1 on 1" private conversations with Trump. He has a pretty good feel for the guy. Somewhat better than you. He and I have talked at great length about Trump. He is supporting Trump big time. I believe you assessment, which comes from the media, is incorrect.



Remember, Reagan was a Democrat till he was 51. Ronald Reagan had an impressive transformation. We all evolve and change.
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jvquarterback
SpiffCoug wrote:
Further proof of just how awful a candidate Trump is. If the GOP could have nominated someone who was likable (Rubio?) they'd be up 10+ points right now.


Have you ever hear Rubio speak? That is the reason he lost. Though I wish it was the fact he is a complete moron and the worst candidate on the Republican side this go round and the electorate is actually informed. Rubio would have been a guaranteed loss.
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Guest
As for your "friend" and your ridiculous assumptions about how I form my opinions I can only assure you that you're wrong on every single level. I have confirmation that my opinion is 100% accurate and comes from a much better source than yours and I know that it is correct and right for me and my family.



As Sno has gently reminded all of us, fighting over politics on an unrelated forum is inappropriate and does no good. Nothing you say will change my mind and vice versa.



All I can say is that everyone needs to get down on their knees and pray for guidance, in the end, vote your conscious and if you vote for a good person regardless of if you think they have a chance to win or not God will bless the country more than if you vote for an evil candidate, even if the candidate that is ultimately elected is not the one you voted for.
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BlueK
Ddawg wrote:
TI believe you assessment, which comes from the media, is incorrect.




The problem is I can read Trump's own tweets and hear his own words to form an opinion completely independent of any media person's analysis.
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Ddawg
BlueK wrote:
TI believe you assessment, which comes from the media, is incorrect.




The problem is I can read Trump's own tweets and hear his own words to form an opinion completely independent of any media person's analysis.


Yes you can. But you must keep his statements in perspective of the entire political theater.



Before you put your decision in concrete to either vote for Hillary, stay home and not vote, or flush your vote down the toilet on a 3rd party - go see the movie "Hillary's America." Expand your mind.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7e6gLht6OQ
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BlueK
Ddawg wrote:
Ddawg wrote:
TI believe you assessment, which comes from the media, is incorrect.




The problem is I can read Trump's own tweets and hear his own words to form an opinion completely independent of any media person's analysis.


Yes you can. But you must keep his statements in perspective of the entire political theater.



Before you put your decision in concrete to either vote for Hillary, stay home and not vote, or flush your vote down the toilet on a 3rd party - go see the movie "Hillary's America." Expand your mind.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7e6gLht6OQ


voting for hillary or trump is flushing my vote down the toilet. And I don't really care why Trump made some outrageous statement or for what political gain he made it. He's responsible for saying it and it makes me think he's pretty scary in the oval office.



Also, your vote for one of the major parties counts the same as mine. Among millions of votes cast it's not going to be the decider either. So I'll vote for whoever I want.
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Ddawg
BlueK wrote:
BlueK wrote:
TI believe you assessment, which comes from the media, is incorrect.




The problem is I can read Trump's own tweets and hear his own words to form an opinion completely independent of any media person's analysis.


Yes you can. But you must keep his statements in perspective of the entire political theater.



Before you put your decision in concrete to either vote for Hillary, stay home and not vote, or flush your vote down the toilet on a 3rd party - go see the movie "Hillary's America." Expand your mind.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7e6gLht6OQ


voting for hillary or trump is flushing my vote down the toilet. And I don't really care why Trump made some outrageous statement or for what political gain he made it. He's responsible for saying it and it makes me think he's pretty scary in the oval office.



Also, your vote for one of the major parties counts the same as mine. Among millions of votes cast it's not going to be the decider either. So I'll vote for whoever I want.


Yes you will. Life is all about decisions. There has never ben a question about voting as you choose. The question is, will you choose wisely for the future of America and it's citizens.
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