BYU basketball in the Final Four? Not so fast.

http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/2016/6/22/11959762/final-four-byu-basketball-cold-shower-hard-to-advance-cougars-bad-as-underdogs



I thought this was a very good article. There is a lot of hype and hope for the Lone Peak Trio. But can they get us to a Final Four? This article looks at just how hard of a challenge that will be for BYU.

From 2001-2015, 60 teams have advanced to the Final Four. 45 of those 60 teams (75%) had at least 2 future NBA draft picks. 36 (60%) Final Four teams had at least 3 future NBA draft picks on their roster. 25 (41.7%) had at least 4 NBA draft picks. 16 (26.7%) featured 5 or more pro selections. 6 (10%) had 6 NBA draft picks on their roster.

For the record, since the NBA reduced the draft to only 2 rounds in 1989, BYU has only had two NBA Draft picks on the same roster once. It was in 2002-03 when both Travis Hansen and Rafael Araujo were teammates. This team lost its first round game as a 12-seed against UCONN, 58-53.

Since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, BYU’s record is 7-18.



BYU has only reached the Sweet 16 if the National Player of the Year is on their roster.

Over his first 11 campaigns, Dave Rose has taken BYU to seldom seen territories. Coach Rose has been good overall in his 11 seasons at BYU. His record in tournament games leaves more to be desired. Rose is 4-8 at the NCAA tournament. 6-3 in the NIT — 1-3 not in the Marriott Center. 14-12 in conference tournaments. That’s 24-22 in postseason tournaments.



However, history suggests that as good as Coach Rose may be, if he’s going to get BYU to a Final Four for the first time, he’s going to need 2 NBA Draft prospects.

BYU hasn’t provided much as an underdog in its body of work in the NCAA tournament. As a lower seeded team, BYU is 3-15

In program history, BYU is 7-7 in the NCAA tournament when they are higher seeded than their opponent.

All too often, the incoming recruits are referred to as the most talented group in school history. That simply isn’t true. That honor goes to the 1979-80 Cougars team had 4 players — Danny Ainge, Fred Roberts, Devin Durrant, Greg Kite (Kite came off the bench!) — that were all selected in the first two rounds of the NBA draft.



This team played their way to a 24-4 record in the regular season. Earning a 3-seed in the tournament. Sadly, the 79-80 team was upset by Clemson, 71-66, as a 3-seed in their first NCAA game.

I'd like to see a comparison of Final Four teams and the number of top 100 players on the team. BYU has 6 players this year who were top 100 players coming out of high school. In theory that should mean a deep Tournament run.

hawkwing wrote:
I'd like to see a comparison of Final Four teams and the number of top 100 players on the team. BYU has 6 players this year who were top 100 players coming out of high school. In theory that should mean a deep Tournament run.

Factoring in redshirts, there's up to 5 years worth of top-100 players in the NCAA at any given time (frosh, sophs, jrs, srs, RS-srs). Take away 30 of those for early exit NBA-draftees for the four eligible classes (i.e. no ones been drafted prior to their frosh season), and there's still around 350 top-100 players in college hoops for any given season.



BYU's managed to collect less than 2% of those....and any team that lands and average of 2 or more of the top 100 players per recruiting class will likely have 6 on their roster.

snoscythe wrote:

I'd like to see a comparison of Final Four teams and the number of top 100 players on the team. BYU has 6 players this year who were top 100 players coming out of high school. In theory that should mean a deep Tournament run.

Factoring in redshirts, there's up to 5 years worth of top-100 players in the NCAA at any given time (frosh, sophs, jrs, srs, RS-srs). Take away 30 of those for early exit NBA-draftees for the four eligible classes (i.e. no ones been drafted prior to their frosh season), and there's still around 350 top-100 players in college hoops for any given season.



BYU's managed to collect less than 2% of those....and any team that lands and average of 2 or more of the top 100 players per recruiting class will likely have 6 on their roster.

I'd still like to see the actual numbers.