Is Taysom really the more explosive QB?

I went back and looked at the play-by-plays to look at explosive offensive plays. I went with plays where the offense gained 30 or more yards and where either Hill or Mangum was the QB. So that's 25 games for Hill (which includes four games at the start of 2012 where he saw situtational duty & the games in '14 & '15 he left early) and 13 games for Mangum. Here are the resutls:



Hill:

Total: 46 plays (15 TDs)

• Passing (26 plays) (8 TDs)
  30-39 yards: 16 plays (4 TDs)
  
  40-49 yards: 3 plays (3 TDs)
  
  50-59 yards: 6 plays (1 TD)
  
  60+ yards: 1 play

• Rushing (20 plays) (7 TDs)
  30-39 yards: 10 plays (2 TDs)
  
  40-49 yards: 5 plays
  
  50-59 yards: 1 plays (1 TD)
  
  60+ yards: 4 play (4 TDs)

• Total (46 plays) (15 TDs)
  30-39 yards: 26 plays (6 TDs)
  
  40-49 yards: 8 plays (3 TDs)
  
  50-59 yards: 7 plays (2 TDs)
  
  60+ yards: 5 plays (4 TDs)

Mangum:



Total: 37 plays (10 TDs)

• Passing (29 plays) (6 TDs)
  
  30-39 yards: 18 plays (2 TDs)
  
  40-49 yards: 6 plays (1 TD)
  
  50-59 yards: 2 plays (1 TD)
  
  60+ yards: 3 plays (2 TDs)

• Rushing (8 plays) (4 TDs)
  
  30-39 yards: 2 plays (1 TD)
  
  40-49 yards: 5 plays (2 TDs)
  
  50-59 yards: 1 plays (1 TD)
  
  60+ yards: 0 plays

• Total (37 plays) (10 TDs)
  
  30-39 yards: 20 plays (3 TDs)
  
  40-49 yards: 11 plays (3 TDs)
  
  50-59 yards: 3 plays (2 TDs)
  
  60+ yards: 3 plays (2 TDs)

By my count, there is an argument to be made that Mangum has every bit the ability to excite and create explosive and exciting offensive plays.

I tend to agree, but then I wonder if you have considered that Taysom's body itself has exploded 3 times in 4 years here at BYU, so really it's about even if you think about it. Taysom isn't just making explosive plays, he is actually exploding bit by bit. So that's like, a double word bonus or something.

Brayden Green wrote:
I tend to agree, but then I wonder if you have considered that Taysom's body itself has exploded 3 times in 4 years here at BYU, so really it's about even if you think about it. Taysom isn't just making explosive plays, he is actually exploding bit by bit. So that's like, a double word bonus or something.

This keeps coming up and I'll keep countering with...



Anyone who took the hits that Taysom received on his injuries (minus the lisfranc) would have also had substantial injuries. Taysom's not made of glass, and he's not made of steel. Mangum may or may not be more "durable" but he certainly wouldn't have come out of that rolled up ankle unscathed. Mangum also had his body let him down (hamstring injury) vs ECU IIRC.

I guess the percentages would be the important thing (out of the total number of plays).

Taysom is the better thrower and the better runner. His only "knock" is that he has a history of injury.

I think the difference may be in personnel and game situations.



Seems like with Mangum (and the tougher schedule) BYU was playing from behind or in tight games a lot, which meant we were looking (or heaving) downfield a lot more late in the game. Mangum also didn't have Jamaal Williams in the backfield helping him in the run game, so the offense was more pass-oriented, and passing tends to give you more "explosive" plays.



Taysom on the other hand, especially as a starter, seemed to generally be playing with a lead late in games, which lead to a higher ratio of run plays. He also had Jamaal Williams as an option, which also tilts the ratio towards the run.



I don't think any numbers analysis can make me believe Mangum 2016 was more explosive than Hill. It's a strained off-season argument.

BYU is a better team with Taysom hill as the healthy starter. BYU has a very bright future with Tanner Mangum as our starter. If Taysom Hill is not 100% and Tanner beats him out in fall camp, I will support Tanner just like I did last year.

I'm so stoked to have this dilemma. Probably not as much as Ty but pretty close.

Spiff, I always love it when you run some numbers.



I agree with Mars that we'd want to have the number of "explosive" plays normalized to be comparable so we can compare the expected big play potential. But just dividing the total number of explosive plays each has made by the total number of plays, would tell us who has the best body of work. I don't think that's what we want here. Rather, we want to know who to play--part of that decision may be who would be most likely to produce an exploded play. So because the near past is the best predictor of the near future, I suggest that we go back at the same number of most recent plays for each of them. So, for example, if Tanner played 100 snaps in 2015, then we should look at Taysom's most recent 100 snaps. Or if Taysom had 75 snaps between 2015 and 2014, then we should compare those to Tanner's most recent 75 snaps.



Sure that compares a Sr to a Frosh, but that's the point--our choice is to start Taysom as a senior, not Taysom as a freshman.



Thanks, Spiff.

While I like the topic on who is the more explosive as a QB, I think there is one point being overlooked here.



I will agree that the passing game is a direct comparison between QB's, but the running game isn't. How many of those explosive running plays were Taysom's? I know none of the explosive running plays were Tanners, can the QB get credit for an explosive play if he wasn't the one running the ball? So with that I would have to say Taysom is the more all around explosive QB. But I really love the gunslinger passing mentality of Tanner and how he always keeps his eyes down field.

BroncoBot wrote:

I tend to agree, but then I wonder if you have considered that Taysom's body itself has exploded 3 times in 4 years here at BYU, so really it's about even if you think about it. Taysom isn't just making explosive plays, he is actually exploding bit by bit. So that's like, a double word bonus or something.

This keeps coming up and I'll keep countering with...



Anyone who took the hits that Taysom received on his injuries (minus the lisfranc) would have also had substantial injuries. Taysom's not made of glass, and he's not made of steel. Mangum may or may not be more "durable" but he certainly wouldn't have come out of that rolled up ankle unscathed. Mangum also had his body let him down (hamstring injury) vs ECU IIRC.

hard for a QB to run in the open field as much as Taysom likes to and not get hurt a lot. It's a hazard of his style. I do think he can be very effective in a more controlled situation a pro-style offense can give him. Steve Young did that.

BlueK wrote:

Brayden Green wrote:
I tend to agree, but then I wonder if you have considered that Taysom's body itself has exploded 3 times in 4 years here at BYU, so really it's about even if you think about it. Taysom isn't just making explosive plays, he is actually exploding bit by bit. So that's like, a double word bonus or something.

This keeps coming up and I'll keep countering with...



Anyone who took the hits that Taysom received on his injuries (minus the lisfranc) would have also had substantial injuries. Taysom's not made of glass, and he's not made of steel. Mangum may or may not be more "durable" but he certainly wouldn't have come out of that rolled up ankle unscathed. Mangum also had his body let him down (hamstring injury) vs ECU IIRC.

hard for a QB to run in the open field as much as Taysom likes to and not get hurt a lot. It's a hazard of his style. I do think he can be very effective in a more controlled situation a pro-style offense can give him. Steve Young did that.

The non-Lisfranc injuries sustained by Taysom were not due to his "style". The first could have happened to any QB on any QB sneak. Why we ran that instead of kneeling down is a coaching question. The second could have happened to any QB scrambling due to pressure and trying to get around the corner. I suppose they would have to be strong enough to resist the first attempt to tackle and make the safety jump on their back like Taysom, but you see LBs and safeties chasing QBs to the boundary all the time, regardless of their style. Taysom has been really, really unlucky. That's about it.

http://www.campusrush.com/lisfranc-injury-taysom-hill-byu-football-cougars-1860352138.html?xid=cr_social



Article on TH's recovery.

So maybe we should just compare the big passing plays. We already know Taysom won the running plays.

The receiving corps would be about even, with Taysom having perhaps a slight advantage (Cody Hoffman is a bit better than Mitch Matthews, though I felt Mitch really progressed his senior year).

How does Tanner compare to Steve Young? Just curiuos...

SenorCougar wrote:
How does Tanner compare to Steve Young? Just curiuos...

I don't have play-by-play data for Steve Young to make that comparison.

CrimsonCoug wrote:
Spiff, I always love it when you run some numbers.



I agree with Mars that we'd want to have the number of "explosive" plays normalized to be comparable so we can compare the expected big play potential. But just dividing the total number of explosive plays each has made by the total number of plays, would tell us who has the best body of work. I don't think that's what we want here. Rather, we want to know who to play--part of that decision may be who would be most likely to produce an exploded play. So because the near past is the best predictor of the near future, I suggest that we go back at the same number of most recent plays for each of them. So, for example, if Tanner played 100 snaps in 2015, then we should look at Taysom's most recent 100 snaps. Or if Taysom had 75 snaps between 2015 and 2014, then we should compare those to Tanner's most recent 75 snaps.



Sure that compares a Sr to a Frosh, but that's the point--our choice is to start Taysom as a senior, not Taysom as a freshman.



Thanks, Spiff.

It would probably take a while for me to compile that. But just for comparison's sake, Tanner is likely going to have a MUCH higher "explosive" play to play ratio.



In 2015, BYU ran 915 plays. In 2013 they ran 1,111 plays. So at a minimum Taysom has a huge lead in total plays and plays per game.

The difference in offensive line play between last year and Taysom Hill's sophomore year is not even comparable. Taysom Hill made magic on multiple occasions on plays where he was running for his life.