The Myth of Perot's 1992 Presidential Candidacy

Many point to 1992 and Perot's run at the Presidency to argue that a vote for anyone other than the GOP nominee hands the election to the Dems. That is absolutely false.



Exit polling on Election Day 1992 showed that 38% of Perot-voters had Bush as their second choice. An equal 38% had Clinton as their second choice. Perot's impact was de minimus on the final result as all the data pointed toward an equal split in his votes between the two candidates.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1992/11/08/perot-seen-not-affecting-vote-outcome/27500538-cee8-4f4f-8e7f-f3ee9f2325d1/

http://www.nytimes.com/1992/11/05/us/1992-elections-disappointment-analysis-eccentric-but-no-joke-perot-s-strong.html



If anything, Perot's run benefited Bush in making the final outcome closer than it would have been without Perot's intervention. Prior to Perot coming into the race, the closest poll had the unpopular Bush 9 points behind Clinton, and most had him more than 15 points behind.



http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/ross-perot-myth-reborn-amid-rumors-third-party-trump-candidacy



The idea of a third-party or independent candidate as a spoiler gets run out every year by a GOP who wants to hold on to power, but Perot does not support that narrative. If anything, Perot supports the notion that there is a path for an outside candidate to win by pulling votes from BOTH parties, especially when two unfavorable candidates are trotted forward by the two major parties.

Perot mostly pulled in votes from people disgusted with both parties who didn't want to vote for either, or who otherwise would not have voted. but the losing side always wants to make themselves feel better by saying an independent candidate kept them from winning. it' s the political equivalent of Uncle Rico. I've seen the data as well. It's just not what republicans want to hear though.

The problem with that election, is that perot was the best choice.

Six weeks ago the libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, was polling at 11%. He won the governorship of New Mexico twice so, unlike Perot, he knows how to run a campaign and won't drop out then re-enter the race. If he gets in the debates (15% threshold) I think he could win a few states.