Vote For 2016 Projected Wins

There's been some good discussion in the other thread about how many games our football team can win this upcoming season. We're still 4+ months away, but let's play a fun game and put a % chance to win each game and then I'll consolidate everyone's inputs. So far I've put down ESPN and myself:


BYU Wins FB 2016 v4.PNG

I'm down for 7 wins including very optimistic wins against Utah and Boise St.!



*Edit - updated above graphic to show everyone's inputs thus far.

Arizona: 60%

Utah: 50%

UCLA: 51%

West Virginia: 40%

Toledo: 69%

Michigan St.: 10%

Mississippi St: 25%

Boise St.: 65%

Cincinnati: 60%

Southern Utah: 95%

Umass: 51%

Utah St.: 75%

byufan4ever wrote:
There's been some good discussion in the other thread about how many games our football team can win this upcoming season. We're still 4+ months away, but let's play a fun game and put a % chance to win each game and then I'll consolidate everyone's inputs. So far I've put down ESPN and myself:


BYU Wins FB 2016.PNG

I'm down for 7 wins including very optimistic wins against Utah and Boise St.!

ESPN predicts 6.39 victories. They favor us in 5 games.

You are predicting 6.84 victories, but favor us in 7 games.



Arizona 40%

Utah 45%

UCLA 40%

West Virginia 45%

Toledo 70%

Michigan St. 10%

Mississippi St. 35%

Boise St. 55%

Cincinnati 60%

Southern Utah 95%

Umass 99%

Utah St. 80%

My 8) says 9 wins 8) and in all probability 10 8) with a win over :sick: :sick: :sick:

Arizona: 60%

Utah: 49%

UCLA: 60%

West Virginia: 40%

Toledo: 75%

Michigan St.: 25%

Mississippi St: 51%

Boise St.: 70%

Cincinnati: 80%

Southern Utah: 99%

Umass: 90%

Utah St.: 70%

Arizona: 65

Utah: 65

UCLA: 70

West Va: 65

Toledo: 75

Mich St: 30

Miss St: 65

Boise St: 60

Cinci: 65

So Utah: 90

U Mass: 95

Utah St: 70



I predict 9 wins. My percentages might look like 11 wins, but if you multiply them together, they drop below 50. Therefore, we will likely drop 2, and possibly 3 that I favored us for.

Arizona 60

Utah 55

UCLA 60

WV 30

Toledo 75

Mich St 25

Miss St 40

Boise St 55

Cinci 55

SUU 95

UMass 95

Utah St 85

StatsCougar wrote:

ESPN predicts 6.39 victories. They favor us in 5 games.

You are predicting 6.84 victories, but favor us in 7 games.

That's a very good distinction. Thank you!

Here's the summary so far:


BYU Wins FB 2016 v2.PNG

Have to say that I'm surprised at the 9 favored wins (Arizona at 50.1% counts as a W). Boid, I appreciate your optimism, but I hope your not betting your life savings on these results!! I really do think that we'll struggle our first game out against Arizona. New coaches (many FIRST time coaches at this level), new offense, new defense, essentially an away game. I don't know a ton about Arizona, but they'll be no push over.

That's why I gave us 60 percent over Arizona. First game of season, and on the road. If it had been at home in November, I would have given us 85 over the Wildcats. If UCLA had been on the road, and at same first weekend, then I might have called that one at 45. And this because I respect UCLA more than Arizona.

Arizona 70

Utah 45

UCLA 60

WV 50

Toledo 90

Mich St 20

Miss St 40

Boise St 45

Cinci 75

SUU 99

UMass 100

Utah St 85

Arizona: 65%

Utah: 40%

UCLA: 30%

West Virginia: 45%

Toledo: 70%

Michigan St.: 20%

Mississippi St: 25%

Boise St.: 60%

Cincinnati: 75%

Southern Utah: 99%

Umass: 98%

Utah St.: 75%

I wonder what our record will be against BCS teams. I could certainly live with 2-4.

Mars wrote:
I wonder what our record will be against BCS teams. I could certainly live with 2-4.

I think we get 4 wins out of 7. I'm counting Boise St. as a P5 equivalent. IMHO, BSU is the only current Group of 5 member that has earned that by virtue of historic duration of winning performance. I think BSU will be a more risky game for BYU than Arizona or Utah. In fact, I had rated BSU as the riskiest game after Michigan St. OK, I know that BSU is not at its peak strength right now, but they played us tough last year, and this year it will be on their blue turf.

Updated graphic:


BYU Wins FB 2016 v3.PNG

Arizona: 40%

Utah: 30%

UCLA: 35%

West Virginia: 38%

Toledo: 64%

Michigan St.: 15%

Mississippi St: 33%

Boise St.: 39%

Cincinnati: 52%

Southern Utah: 95%

Umass: 90%

Utah St.: 77%

I've seen some other fans talking quite seriously about how they believe the Cougars have a greater than 60% chance to beat every team on the list, most in the 80-90% range.



It really makes me appreciative of the level headed Cougar fans here.

Arizona: 35%

Utah: 15%

UCLA: 30%

West Virginia: 25%

Toledo: 75%

Michigan St.: 5%

Mississippi St: 20%

Boise St.: 35%

Cincinnati: 45%

Southern Utah: 100%

Umass: 100%

Utah St.: 90%

hawkwing wrote:
I've seen some other fans talking quite seriously about how they believe the Cougars have a greater than 60% chance to beat every team on the list, most in the 80-90% range.



It really makes me appreciative of the level headed Cougar fans here.

Put me down for 100% for all games. :D



Just kidding. I'd rate it as follows:



Arizona: 45%

Utah: 49% I actually think we are finally going to win this one, but I can't give a majority until we do.

UCLA: 45%

West Virginia: 50%

Toledo: 75%

Michigan St: 25%

Mississippi State: 40%

Boise State: 50%

Cincinnatti: 65%

Southern Utah: 100%

UMASS: 100%

Utah State: 85%

hawkwing wrote:
I've seen some other fans talking quite seriously about how they believe the Cougars have a greater than 60% chance to beat every team on the list, most in the 80-90% range.



It really makes me appreciative of the level headed Cougar fans here.

I still don't get how fans are giving such high % for the Arizona game. First game, practically an away game, against a decent/good team. I don't think we'd beat Arizona at home for that first game...

Here's the updated graphic:


BYU Wins FB 2016 v4.PNG

And Hawkwing, I'm still getting that upload issue I PM'd you about.