I'm all in for Tanner, but...

If I were on the offensive coaching staff, I'd be throwing my hat in the Tanner corner. My decision would be he is our starter. He is the QB who will get the majority of the offensive snaps in both spring and over most of the summer. This mainly based on Taysom not being 100% (or even close to 100% if Coach Detmer is to be believed). So if Taysom wants to be the starter he will need to outperform Tanner on limited reps because you have to move forward without Taysom until it is clear that he is fully back.



But even I can admit, if you want to argue Tanner is the BETTER QB based on what we've seen, it's a tough argument to make. I liked what I saw from Tanner more than what I've seen from Taysom. I see his style as more conducive to long-term success and more compatible with what Ty Detmer will likely want to run. I think his ceiling is higher. I think Tanner is the most talented passing QB we've had since Detmer.



But here are some stats in favor of Taysom, which do give me pause.



vs Teams .500 or better:



Taysom: 8-4 (.667) W/L record

233 of 395 (.590) for 2,786 yards with 17 TDs & 12 INTs for a 126.36 passer rating.

245 rushes for 1,326 yards (5.4 ypc) & 10 TDs.

BYU averaged 27.3 points.

Most points scored: 46 (Houston 2013)

Fewest points scored: 13 (Notre Dame 2013)

Games with a passer rating above 135: 6

Best win - in terms of opponent's victories: Utah St 2013 (9-4)

Biggest win - in terms of margin of victory: 27 points (Middle Tennessee [8-5], 2013)

Biggest loss: 15 points (Washington [9-4], 2013)



Tanner: 2-3 (.400) W/L record

103 of 191 (.539) for 1,175 yards with 7 TDs & 7 INTs for a 110.37 passer rating.

35 rushes for -72 yards (-2.1 ypc) & 2 TDs.

BYU averaged 24.8 points.

Most points scored: 38 (Cincinnati 2015)

Fewest points scored: 0 (Michigan 2015)

Games with a passer rating above 135: 2

Best win - in terms of opponent's victories: Boise St 2015 (9-4)

Biggest win - in terms of margin of victory: 14 points (Cincinnati [7-6], 2015)

Biggest loss: 31 points (Michigan [9-3], 2015)

Tanner will be #1 up to the start of fall camp. Then we will see how TH foot is doing and gong from there.

Great post, but this is coming from a Taysom > Tanner guy.

Funny, but I was a Taysom over Tanner guy until I watched a replay of the Elite 11 camp that Tanner was co-MVP with 2 other QB's (one being Jameis Winston and the other Neal Burcham of SMU that has been plagued with injuries and missed most of last 2 seasons). He was that much better than most of the other QBs. Then we saw what he did with 3 months prep after a mission and it's hard to imagine that even Taysom could actually beat him out in a head-to-head competition. He's Really That Good!



It's just that watching Taysom play is about as exciting as it gets in college football. You never know what's going to happen with him at the reins and I want to see another full season from him.



I'm glad I don't have to pick, but my feeling as of right now is that Tanner will be the starter, but it's like a win/win situation with either of the two.

EM_Puma wrote:
Funny, but I was a Taysom over Tanner guy until I watched a replay of the Elite 11 camp that Tanner was co-MVP with 2 other QB's (one being Jameis Winston and the other Neal Burcham of SMU that has been plagued with injuries and missed most of last 2 seasons). He was that much better than most...

If I recall correctly, Heaps was also a winner there. Gary Sheide indicated last year when Taysom got hurt that of all the great QBs to come out of BYU, Taysom would be his pick for All-BYU QB. Judgement is difficult. Aaron Rodgers was s 3 star recruit and Drew Brees was 0 stars. Both QBs are talented. Is Tanners arm better than Taysom's legs? I dont know.....



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I'm all in on whoever lines up under center for any given snap.



Nothing to be gained by taking any other approach as a fan this year. Staking out a position as a Taysom-guy or a Tanner-guy does nobody any good. I'm okay with calling your shots (e.g. "My guess is Taysom gets the nod in September", which happens to be what I think will happen), but anything beyond that is just looking for pointless conflict.



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I don't think any coaches, players, or fans should be in either camp at this point. Taysom likely will not be the exact same player he was after this injury and Tanner will have grown and learned. The only comparison that should be made is when they're both playing in practice to determine who gives us the best chance to win.

SenorCougar wrote:

Funny, but I was a Taysom over Tanner guy until I watched a replay of the Elite 11 camp that Tanner was co-MVP with 2 other QB's (one being Jameis Winston and the other Neal Burcham of SMU that has been plagued with injuries and missed most of last 2 seasons). He was that much better than most...

If I recall correctly, Heaps was also a winner there. Gary Sheide indicated last year when Taysom got hurt that of all the great QBs to come out of BYU, Taysom would be his pick for All-BYU QB. Judgement is difficult. Aaron Rodgers was s 3 star recruit and Drew Brees was 0 stars. Both QBs are talented. Is Tanners arm better than Taysom's legs? I dont know.....



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Yes, but the crop of players at Heaps' Elite 11 pales to what was at Tanner's.

SpiffCoug wrote:
the crop of players at Heaps' Elite 11 pales to what was at Tanner's.

Based on the sample size of Jameis Winston? Other than him, Tanner's 2011 crop has proven to be just as mediocre as Heaps' was, if not worse.



Of the players not named Tanner or Jameis, only Chad Kelly (Ole Miss) is even a current starter. Heaps' Elite 11 class will end up with more guys having played at any level in the NFL (6 of them got a shot at training camps) than Mangum's (at best 4, including Winston and Mangum, have a path to training camp or beyond).

snoscythe wrote:

the crop of players at Heaps' Elite 11 pales to what was at Tanner's.

Based on the sample size of Jameis Winston? Other than him, Tanner's 2011 crop has proven to be just as mediocre as Heaps' was, if not worse.



Of the players not named Tanner or Jameis, only Chad Kelly (Ole Miss) is even a current starter. Heaps' Elite 11 class will end up with more guys having played at any level in the NFL (6 of them got a shot at training camps) than Mangum's (at best 4, including Winston and Mangum, have a path to training camp or beyond).

Yep, did anyone have anywhere near the success Jameis had? So no, the 2011 crop hasn't proven just as mediocre. Winston's success should be factored in.

SpiffCoug wrote:

SpiffCoug wrote:
the crop of players at Heaps' Elite 11 pales to what was at Tanner's.

Based on the sample size of Jameis Winston? Other than him, Tanner's 2011 crop has proven to be just as mediocre as Heaps' was, if not worse.



Of the players not named Tanner or Jameis, only Chad Kelly (Ole Miss) is even a current starter. Heaps' Elite 11 class will end up with more guys having played at any level in the NFL (6 of them got a shot at training camps) than Mangum's (at best 4, including Winston and Mangum, have a path to training camp or beyond).

Yep, did anyone have anywhere near the success Jameis had? So no, the 2011 crop hasn't proven just as mediocre. Winston's success should be factored in.

Yes--but even with Jameis, the overall crop is just as mediocre, possibly worse.



Winston, the guy Mangum tied (not beat), has proven better than anyone at Heaps camp. However, all the guys Heaps beat look to, on the whole, have been stiffer competition than the guys Mangum beat (not tied). Heaps didn't have anyone as good as Jameis to compare to, but Mangum tied Jameis. Who's to say Heaps wouldn't have done the same--the non-contact camps were not equivalent.



My point is, there's no winning argument for whose Elite 11 award means more, and it's asinine to try it.

snoscythe wrote:

snoscythe wrote:

the crop of players at Heaps' Elite 11 pales to what was at Tanner's.

Based on the sample size of Jameis Winston? Other than him, Tanner's 2011 crop has proven to be just as mediocre as Heaps' was, if not worse.



Of the players not named Tanner or Jameis, only Chad Kelly (Ole Miss) is even a current starter. Heaps' Elite 11 class will end up with more guys having played at any level in the NFL (6 of them got a shot at training camps) than Mangum's (at best 4, including Winston and Mangum, have a path to training camp or beyond).

Yep, did anyone have anywhere near the success Jameis had? So no, the 2011 crop hasn't proven just as mediocre. Winston's success should be factored in.

Yes--but even with Jameis, the overall crop is just as mediocre, possibly worse.



Winston, the guy Mangum tied (not beat), has proven better than anyone at Heaps camp. However, all the guys Heaps beat look to, on the whole, have been stiffer competition than the guys Mangum beat (not tied). Heaps didn't have anyone as good as Jameis to compare to, but Mangum tied Jameis. Who's to say Heaps wouldn't have done the same--non-contact camps are the same.



My point is, there's no winning argument for whose Elite 11 award means more, and it's asinine to try it.

Heaps probalaby beats out Winston and Mangum at the Elite 11 if they're all together, he's the best practice QB to ever play the game. Unfortunately he has no idea how to translate that into actual football where we know Winston! Tanner and others have made the transition.

Right now, Tanner > Taysom. Taysom can't even jog.



IF, Taysom comes back 100% and clearly better than Tanner, only then should Taysom be made #1 and get primary reps.



For those with fond memories of Taysom leaping over defenders and wowing us with his athleticism, I highly doubt we see that from Taysom anymore. Playing that way had landed him 3 season-ending injuries. I should hope he's learned his lesson. Even before last season began, Taysom talked about throwing it more and becoming more of a pocket passer. He's more than likely entrenched even further in that mindset. The days of watching Taysom single handedly beat teams with his legs are done - 1) He doesn't have the legs anymore (3 surgeries will do that), and 2) he doesn't want to do that anymore.



So, if Taysom is looking to be more of a pocket passer, who is/will be the better pocket passer, Tanner or Taysom? Odds are Tanner. The only legitimate advantage Taysom has over Tanner is his mobility and so far that's landed him in the hospital 3 times.



Still, in my mind, it plays out this way:

1) Tanner get the reps in Spring and Summer. He's #1.

2) Taysom is slowly brought along.

3) Come Fall, the two QBs duel it out.

4) To win the job, Taysom resorts to his legs as that's where he shines.

5) Coaches are once again fascinated by Taysom's mobility and prefer to look past his inefficiencies as a thrower (compared to Tanner) and Taysom gets the job.

6) Taysom gets injured because once again the offense called is designed to take advantage of Taysom's mobility.

7) Tanner finishes the season as the starting QB.

8 ) Tanner has less experience and isn't as far along as he should/could be because the coaches felt inclined to go with Taysom.



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I don't think your timeline is necessarily far wrong.



I don't believe that playing necessarily makes you get better faster. BYU sat extremely talented QBs behind senior QBs all the time in the QB factory days and those QBs who had sat and improved in practice were able to come in as Jrs and excel because of their extra time in the program and practice.



It's a system I would much like BYU to return to, rather than this false idea that you need to play freshman and take a few losses just so that they can get better and play well as Jr and Sr.

Gunk wrote:
Right now, Tanner > Taysom. Taysom can't even jog.



IF, Taysom comes back 100% and clearly better than Tanner, only then should Taysom be made #1 and get primary reps.



For those with fond memories of Taysom leaping over defenders and wowing us with his athleticism, I highly doubt we see that from Taysom anymore. Playing that way had landed him 3 season-ending injuries. I should hope he's learned his lesson. Even before last season began, Taysom talked about throwing it more and becoming more of a pocket passer. He's more than likely entrenched even further in that mindset. The days of watching Taysom single handedly beat teams with his legs are done - 1) He doesn't have the legs anymore (3 surgeries will do that), and 2) he doesn't want to do that anymore.



So, if Taysom is looking to be more of a pocket passer, who is/will be the better pocket passer, Tanner or Taysom? Odds are Tanner. The only legitimate advantage Taysom has over Tanner is his mobility and so far that's landed him in the hospital 3 times.



Still, in my mind, it plays out this way:

1) Tanner get the reps in Spring and Summer. He's #1.

2) Taysom is slowly brought along.

3) Come Fall, the two QBs duel it out.

4) To win the job, Taysom resorts to his legs as that's where he shines.

5) Coaches are once again fascinated by Taysom's mobility and prefer to look past his inefficiencies as a thrower (compared to Tanner) and Taysom gets the job.

6) Taysom gets injured because once again the offense called is designed to take advantage of Taysom's mobility.

7) Tanner finishes the season as the starting QB.

8 ) Tanner has less experience and isn't as far along as he should/could be because the coaches felt inclined to go with Taysom.



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So what game does taysom get hurt in your timeline and what's our record with your timeline vs an all Tanner timeline?



What method gets Byu the most wins?



One of taysoms greatest strengths is making something out of nothing/broken plays. There's likely to be a higher percentage of those in our first games with a new system and 6 out of first 7 are huge games.



I think if taysom gives us a better chance to win the next game you go with him. Tanner will still have all the benefits of starters reps in spring and summer. The only way he loses out on reps is if a qb that provides us a better chance to win takes them from him and that won't be until the fall. He only misses reps if the coaches believe our chances are better with taysom and the longer the one giving us the best chance is playing the better.



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SpiffCoug wrote:
vs Teams .500 or better:



Taysom: 8-4 (.667) W/L record

233 of 395 (.590) for 2,786 yards with 17 TDs & 12 INTs for a 126.36 passer rating.

245 rushes for 1,326 yards (5.4 ypc) & 10 TDs.

BYU averaged 27.3 points.

Most points scored: 46 (Houston 2013)

Fewest points scored: 13 (Notre Dame 2013)

Games with a passer rating above 135: 6

Best win - in terms of opponent's victories: Utah St 2013 (9-4)

Biggest win - in terms of margin of victory: 27 points (Middle Tennessee [8-5], 2013)

Biggest loss: 15 points (Washington [9-4], 2013)



Tanner: 2-3 (.400) W/L record

103 of 191 (.539) for 1,175 yards with 7 TDs & 7 INTs for a 110.37 passer rating.

35 rushes for -72 yards (-2.1 ypc) & 2 TDs.

BYU averaged 24.8 points.

Most points scored: 38 (Cincinnati 2015)

Fewest points scored: 0 (Michigan 2015)

Games with a passer rating above 135: 2

Best win - in terms of opponent's victories: Boise St 2015 (9-4)

Biggest win - in terms of margin of victory: 14 points (Cincinnati [7-6], 2015)

Biggest loss: 31 points (Michigan [9-3], 2015)

I have always loved your stats Spiff and thanks for posting them.



Since Tanner has only played 5 games in his short career against .500 or better teams I thought it would be interesting to compare Taysom's first 5 games against winning teams and his last 5 games against winning teams as a more fair comparison.



Taysom's first 5 games.

Record 5-0 against P5 2-0 (Texas, I am still smiling about this and Georgia Tech)

83-139 (.597) 1063 yds 5 td's 4 int's for a 130.07 passer rating

78 rushes for 583 yds (7.4 ypc) and 6 td's

BYU averaged 30.4 points

Most points scored 40 (Texas 2013)

Fewest points scored 6 (Utah State 2012)

Passer Rating above 135: 3

Best win- in terms of opponent's victories: Utah State 2012 (11-2)

Biggest win-in terms of margin of victory: 27 Middle Tennessee (2013)

Biggest loss: 0, he won all 5 games!



So in terms of firsts for both players, Taysom clearly outplayed Tanner at the beginning of their careers.



Let's now look at Taysom's last 5 games

Record 2-3 against P5 0-3 (Washington, Notre Dame, Wisconsin all in 2013)

113-200 (.565) 1207 yds 7 td's 5 int's for a 113.74 passer rating

116 rushes for 516 yds (4.4 ypc) and 3 td's

BYU averaged 23.2 points

Most points scored 37 (Boise St 2013)

Fewest points scored 13 (Notre Dame 2013)

Passer Rating above 135: 1

Best win- in terms of opponent's victories: 8-5 (Boise St 2013, Houston 2014)

Biggest win-in terms of margin of victory: 17 Boise St 2013

Biggest loss: 15 Washington 2013



This really surprised me. Taysom got worse his last 5 games. Tanner's numbers as a Freshman is very comparable to Taysom as a Junior, but Taysom still has the edge with his running ability.

Don't we need a strong safety? I am just saying.....

This should be the prevailing sentiment:

scott715 wrote:
Tanner will be #1 up to the start of fall camp. Then we will see how TH foot is doing and gong from there.

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hawkwing wrote:
I don't think your timeline is necessarily far wrong.



I don't believe that playing necessarily makes you get better faster. BYU sat extremely talented QBs behind senior QBs all the time in the QB factory days and those QBs who had sat and improved in practice were able to come in as Jrs and excel because of their extra time in the program and practice.



It's a system I would much like BYU to return to, rather than this false idea that you need to play freshman and take a few losses just so that they can get better and play well as Jr and Sr.

While I don't disagree with this sentiment, any conclusions drawn from the QB factory days needs to be discounted by the fact that BYU had a JV team back then that played 6 games a years against tough JC teams like Ricks, Snow, and Dixie. Many former QBs have cited their experience in JV games as essential to their success when they became the starter. While practice reps help polish a QB, they are no substitute for in game reps against defenses hell-bent on driving the QB into the turf.

Mingjai wrote:
While I don't disagree with this sentiment, any conclusions drawn from the QB factory days needs to be discounted by the fact that BYU had a JV team back then that played 6 games a years against tough JC teams like Ricks, Snow, and Dixie. Many former QBs have cited their experience in JV games as essential to their success when they became the starter. While practice reps help polish a QB, they are no substitute for in game reps against defenses hell-bent on driving the QB into the turf.

Can you even have a JV team any more? THAT would be pretty sweet. You could get decent attendance for JV v. Snow and Dixie, etc.