Big 12 expansion not dead?

https://therealdudeofwv.wordpress.com/2016/01/14/its-not-over/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



This guy (therealdudeofwv) claims in his blog that the recent deregulation does not kill Big 12 expansion. He also predicts that the Big 12 expands by 2 in 2017 and by 2 more in 2019 in preparation for a conference network in 2025 when the current TV deal expires. BYU mentioned as the only candidate that currently is neutral revenue + and they are mentioned as football only. Lots of interesting stuff in there that makes logical sense. But I guess we will see how it plays out.

There is no danger of Oklahoma or anyone else leaving the Big 12. That’s just not going to happen and it’s not worthy of discussion. Oklahoma’s goal is to improve the Big 12 not sow the seeds of its destruction.



Recently the Big 12 completed it’s research on potential new members and only one, BYU, was deemed worthy of addition. A very, very distant second was a virtual tie between Cincinnati and UCONN.



The Big 12 toyed with the idea of just adding BYU. BYU was approached about a football only membership but the talks cooled for an undisclosed reason.



If the Big 12 had been forced to expand by yesterday’s vote it would have been Cincinnati and Houston. (why?)



And this round of expansion speculation will be much easier — find the available markets that add the most cable households to the Big 12 footprint.

Recently the Big 12 completed it’s research on potential new members and only one, BYU, was deemed worthy of addition. A very, very distant second was a virtual tie between Cincinnati and UCONN.

I'd like to see the source to that info.

The dude is well known for posting incorrect information.

He may be wrong but I love that a non BYU guy said it and it is read by others around the country. It helps our perception.



We may be Indy for awhile. So let's keep growing our fan base, improve our TV ratings, get commentators to talk about us and build our brand to make us more valuable. We are on the right track.

hawkwing wrote:
The dude is well known for posting incorrect information.

are you sure this is the same "dude" as the other one? Why is this one calling himself the "real" dude of WV?

BlueK wrote:

The dude is well known for posting incorrect information.

are you sure this is the same "dude" as the other one? Why is this one calling himself the "real" dude of WV?

Good question, I don't know.

BYU's likely best hope for inclusion in a P5 conference isn't the Big 12, but the Big 10. The Big 10, however, does like the AAU endorsement for universities (Nebraska lost their rating shortly after joining the Big 10). BYU would not be considered by the AAU group.



The main reason the Big 10 makes more sense is how their TV contract is set up (beautifully done by them). They are the conference network with the largest distribution, and it's not close. They are on every major cable and satellite network in the country. So they are getting some of our subscriber money right now, even out of footprint. The carriers charge a flat fee for the channel, but give a larger portion of the fee to the conference if for subscribers in the footprint.



So, Big 10 wants to pick up the Denver and SLC markets. They go get CSU and BYU. They don't care that no one watches CSU, because they aren't getting paid off of viewership, but off of subscribers. CSU is a good university that matches the profile of the conference. BYU adds viewership (which isn't as important for the Big 10 Network), but they also have their ESPN and Fox/FS1 deals. They now have the ability to have a 9 o'clock or 10 o'clock eastern game. Which game is ESPN/Fox/FS1 gonna want to broadcast? Boise State vs Nevada or Michigan @ BYU?



It's still not likely, as the Big 10 will try and raid other conferences first (either the ACC or Big 12 most likely), but it's more likely than a Big 12 invite right now.

http://m.tulsaworld.com/sportsextra/johnehoover/john-e-hoover-david-boren-tired-of-big-s-little/article_cd7816c7-5571-5ebe-9392-3911e9337f83.html?mode=jqm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



They'll meet Feb 4-5 and will discuss it.



Boren says the best way for the Big 12 to proceed is to first invite two schools and raise membership to 12.



“We have been, as a group, looking at expansion, discussing expansion, and we have had outside consultants helping us look at what schools are the possible best fit,” Boren said. “So there are more than two out there that could be a good fit. There may be six or seven, and we could pick from that group the right two. We have to be very careful. We don’t want to go out and get Okefenokee A&M or something just to have a name.



“We’ll look at the fan base, we’ll look at the size of their programs, we’ll look at the academics of the institutions. We’ll look at them comprehensively as to which is the best fit. And also we’ll consider geography to a certain degree.”

stuckinbig10country wrote:
BYU's likely best hope for inclusion in a P5 conference isn't the Big 12, but the Big 10. The Big 10, however, does like the AAU endorsement for universities (Nebraska lost their rating shortly after joining the Big 10). BYU would not be considered by the AAU group.



The main reason the Big 10 makes more sense is how their TV contract is set up (beautifully done by them). They are the conference network with the largest distribution, and it's not close. They are on every major cable and satellite network in the country. So they are getting some of our subscriber money right now, even out of footprint. The carriers charge a flat fee for the channel, but give a larger portion of the fee to the conference if for subscribers in the footprint.



So, Big 10 wants to pick up the Denver and SLC markets. They go get CSU and BYU. They don't care that no one watches CSU, because they aren't getting paid off of viewership, but off of subscribers. CSU is a good university that matches the profile of the conference. BYU adds viewership (which isn't as important for the Big 10 Network), but they also have their ESPN and Fox/FS1 deals. They now have the ability to have a 9 o'clock or 10 o'clock eastern game. Which game is ESPN/Fox/FS1 gonna want to broadcast? Boise State vs Nevada or Michigan @ BYU?



It's still not likely, as the Big 10 will try and raid other conferences first (either the ACC or Big 12 most likely), but it's more likely than a Big 12 invite right now.

If Big 10 is most proactive about expanding, which they have been, they will likely snatch up Oklahoma and Oklahoma state. Oklahoma will not be a package deal with Texas since they are trying to force Texas to get rid of their money losing station. If they can't get them to give in to preserve the conference, which is what Oklahoma's preference is, Oklahoma would have no problem leaving Texas behind to join the Big 10. They already have teams in the area (Nebraska and Iowa) that would make a good regional fit. The SEC won't go after them. Oklahoma and Okie state have a preference to go together (though I heard an Oklahoma guy on the radio today say that the Oklahoma president does not say it is a must). The SEC also, smartly, only wants one team per state because it gives the college in that state a recruiting advantage...the only college in the state where you get to play SEC teams week in and week out. Still need one from North Carolina and Virginia to complete the Confederacy ;), so likely NC State and Va Tech. I don't see Virginia or UNC leaving the ACC due to their basketball affiliation, as basketball rules the ACC.



In that vein, the ACC will nab Notre Dame (once you get to four conferences, they will have to join), Kansas (thinking basketball first, like usual), and Kansas State.



Pac XII will jump on Texas, and Texas Tech. But the head scratcher is who else they will add? They will need two more teams, and there aren't any good academic, non-religious, good sports schools left anywhere near their footprint. Maybe there is a slight chance that they pick up Boise State and BYU, but I doubt it.



We will be doing nothing but becoming the Kings of the G5...or disbanding athletics like at BYU-I and BYU-H. Remember, only so long as it is a perceived missionary tool do we have sports. If we become irrelevant...frozen out of playing good teams, not televised, etc. then I think it will be the end for football.



If the status quo would remain the status quo forever, then Independence would be a viable option. But, I don't think it will be. Big XII has got to expand or it will be the beginning of the end for the Big XII and they will get eaten instead of the ACC who was supposed to get eaten last expansion round, but smartly strengthened themselves.

stuckinbig10country wrote:
BYU's likely best hope for inclusion in a P5 conference isn't the Big 12, but the Big 10. The Big 10, however, does like the AAU endorsement for universities (Nebraska lost their rating shortly after joining the Big 10). BYU would not be considered by the AAU group.



The main reason the Big 10 makes more sense is how their TV contract is set up (beautifully done by them). They are the conference network with the largest distribution, and it's not close. They are on every major cable and satellite network in the country. So they are getting some of our subscriber money right now, even out of footprint. The carriers charge a flat fee for the channel, but give a larger portion of the fee to the conference if for subscribers in the footprint.



So, Big 10 wants to pick up the Denver and SLC markets. They go get CSU and BYU. They don't care that no one watches CSU, because they aren't getting paid off of viewership, but off of subscribers. CSU is a good university that matches the profile of the conference. BYU adds viewership (which isn't as important for the Big 10 Network), but they also have their ESPN and Fox/FS1 deals. They now have the ability to have a 9 o'clock or 10 o'clock eastern game. Which game is ESPN/Fox/FS1 gonna want to broadcast? Boise State vs Nevada or Michigan @ BYU?



It's still not likely, as the Big 10 will try and raid other conferences first (either the ACC or Big 12 most likely), but it's more likely than a Big 12 invite right now.

While BYU to the B1G isn't impossible, we are a thousand times closer to the Big 12 invite. The Big 12 is actually considering the realistic non-P5 candidates, of which we are one. (though I do think the Big 12 at least attempts to land Kentucky).



The B1G isn't going after the SLC market - it will go after its neighboring markets, eyes set on the Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia markets with big time AAU universities. And, the B1G can wait.



And, wait until the SEC and PAC enter the conversation.



We are closer to the Big 12 and ACC disappearing than BYU to the B1G.

YNot wrote:

It's still not likely, as the Big 10 will try and raid other conferences first (either the ACC or Big 12 most likely), but it's more likely than a Big 12 invite right now.

While BYU to the B1G isn't impossible, we are a thousand times closer to the Big 12 invite. The Big 12 is actually considering the realistic non-P5 candidates, of which we are one. (though I do think the Big 12 at least attempts to land Kentucky).



The B1G isn't going after the SLC market - it will go after its neighboring markets, eyes set on the Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia markets with big time AAU universities. And, the B1G can wait.



And, wait until the SEC and PAC enter the conversation.



We are closer to the Big 12 and ACC disappearing than BYU to the B1G.

I agree with YNot.



I guess it all depends on how likely you consider BYU's chances with the Big XII, because I put BYU's chances with the B1G at 0. The B1G and the Council on Institutional Cooperation would never consider BYU--even McGill has a better shot of getting in than BYU.



I haven't heard anything specific, but the sense I've always gotten from various B1G alums in Chicago and the Twin Cities is that the B1G would be focusing on adding a school like Texas and one or potentially more of Georgia Tech, UVa, and UNC. The SEC schools are probably untouchable, but ACC and Big XII schools will come if beckoned.



That said, everyone in the upper midwest always thought Mizzou, Syracuse, or Pitt would receive strong consideration, but the BTN strongly altered the economics of expansion for the B1G. An example of the importance of the conference network, Penn State received some strong encouragement to create a DI men's hockey program so the B1G could become a hockey conference and add some inventory to the BTN's stock.



BYU's best bet is as it always has been--build an exciting, winning program that draws fans to high profile away games and most importantly attracts eyeballs to its nationally televised games.