B
Brayden GreenI have a little time off from work for the holiday season, and I would like to address something that disturbs me. There are a few posters on this and other sites who - I'm sure it is only coincidence, happen to be some of the biggest Bronco fans and supporters (loyalists, excuse makers, whatever you want to call it) - are attacking Sitake for his defenses and are relating that to being a head coach, as if that was enough data for them to make an educated decision.
Here is a little pushback for to this disturbing trend, and some information that those quoting stats of receding defenses might not be telling you, or might be ignoring altogether (in part they are sore about Bronco leaving, and in part because they are worried, I get it).
They have mentioned declining total defense stats, and I get it. Making a quick look and a spreadsheet comparison gives you a certain picture, (albeit a very rash and hasty one). There are a few things that those stats won't tell you, however. Strength of schedule for example. While Bronco has had a relatively easy schedule year in and year out, Utah's schedule has gotten harder and harder each year since getting into the Pac12. Now, I don't think that the Pac 12 is as good as everyone thinks they are, but Utah's schedule has been undeniably better/stronger than ours have played out. I mean, one year our strongest opponent was Utah State and you can't say that about Utah's schedule in any of the last 6-7 years.
If you look at the actual data, the schedule has gotten harder EVERY YEAR SINCE SITAKE TOOK OVER AS DC! I mean, seriously, this kind of stuff doesn't just happen in a bubble. Playing better teams you are not going to give up more yards and points. It happens. If you want to turn away a good coach because you don't want to take 30 minutes to look at the data rationally, then that's on you.
Another thing that a blind look at the stats WON'T tell you, is in part why those stats descend. Another large part, is players moving on to the NFL (meaning Juniors or non-redshirting Sophomores here) that are harder than normal to replace, on top of all the graduating Seniors that must be replaced.
Kalani has coached 23 defensive players that have gone on to the NFL since 2005. By comparison, Bronco has 6 defensive players drafted in 13 years as a DC and Head coach, and 12 TOTAL players drafted in 11 years.
For those keeping track at home, that is 1 first round pick, 6 second round picks, 2 3rd round picks, 2 fourth round picks, and so on. You can compare that to Bronco's 1 first round pick, 1 second round pick, and the other 4 are 4th round and below.
So, the people that get paid a substantial amount of money to go over thousands of hours of tape a year think that Kalani Sitake is overwhelmingly the better personnel coach, at least when it comes down to preparation for the NFL.
The overspeak on this and other boards about Sitake not being a capable coach is ludicrous. I understand the concern, but let's give it AT MINIMUM a few months to play out. I am sure that he will do fine with the talent here at BYU and I am excited to see the changes take place in our recruiting and overall approach to how BYU football relates to the rest of the college football landscape.
Here is a little pushback for to this disturbing trend, and some information that those quoting stats of receding defenses might not be telling you, or might be ignoring altogether (in part they are sore about Bronco leaving, and in part because they are worried, I get it).
They have mentioned declining total defense stats, and I get it. Making a quick look and a spreadsheet comparison gives you a certain picture, (albeit a very rash and hasty one). There are a few things that those stats won't tell you, however. Strength of schedule for example. While Bronco has had a relatively easy schedule year in and year out, Utah's schedule has gotten harder and harder each year since getting into the Pac12. Now, I don't think that the Pac 12 is as good as everyone thinks they are, but Utah's schedule has been undeniably better/stronger than ours have played out. I mean, one year our strongest opponent was Utah State and you can't say that about Utah's schedule in any of the last 6-7 years.
Year Jeff Sagarin SOS Ranking (Blue BYU - Utah Red - Oregon State Orange)
2005 11 67
2006 74 73
2007 59 60
2008 74 56
2009 61 75
2010 50 55
2011 90 49
2012 63 41
2013 38 3
2014 69 36
2015 64 11
If you look at the actual data, the schedule has gotten harder EVERY YEAR SINCE SITAKE TOOK OVER AS DC! I mean, seriously, this kind of stuff doesn't just happen in a bubble. Playing better teams you are not going to give up more yards and points. It happens. If you want to turn away a good coach because you don't want to take 30 minutes to look at the data rationally, then that's on you.
Another thing that a blind look at the stats WON'T tell you, is in part why those stats descend. Another large part, is players moving on to the NFL (meaning Juniors or non-redshirting Sophomores here) that are harder than normal to replace, on top of all the graduating Seniors that must be replaced.
Kalani has coached 23 defensive players that have gone on to the NFL since 2005. By comparison, Bronco has 6 defensive players drafted in 13 years as a DC and Head coach, and 12 TOTAL players drafted in 11 years.
2015 R3 Steven Nelson, CB Kansas City
2015 R5 D.J. Alexander, LB Kansas City
2015 R6 Obum Gwacham, DE Seattle Seahawks
2015 R7 Ryan Murphy, S Seattle Seahawks
2015 R2 Eric Rowe,
2015 R2 Nate Orchard
2014 R4 Keith McGill, Raiders DB
2014 R7 Trevor Reilly, Jets LB
2013 R1 Star Lotulelei, Panthers DT
2013 R7 Joe Kruger, Eagles DE
2011 R5 Brandon Burton, Vikings DB
2010 R2 Koa Misi, Dolphins LB
2010 R5 Robert Johnson (safety) Titans DB
2010 R5 Stevenson Sylvester Steelers LB
2010 R7 R. J. Stanford Panthers DB
2010 R2 Paul Kruger (American football) Ravens DE
2009 R2 Sean Smith Dolphins DB
2009 R6 Brice McCain Texans DB
2007 R2 Eric Weddle Chargers DB
2007 R4 Paul Soliai Dolphins DT
2006 R7 Spencer Toone Titans LB
2005 R3 Sione Pouha Jets DT
2005 R7 Jonathan Fanene Bengals DE
For those keeping track at home, that is 1 first round pick, 6 second round picks, 2 3rd round picks, 2 fourth round picks, and so on. You can compare that to Bronco's 1 first round pick, 1 second round pick, and the other 4 are 4th round and below.
So, the people that get paid a substantial amount of money to go over thousands of hours of tape a year think that Kalani Sitake is overwhelmingly the better personnel coach, at least when it comes down to preparation for the NFL.
The overspeak on this and other boards about Sitake not being a capable coach is ludicrous. I understand the concern, but let's give it AT MINIMUM a few months to play out. I am sure that he will do fine with the talent here at BYU and I am excited to see the changes take place in our recruiting and overall approach to how BYU football relates to the rest of the college football landscape.