Y
YzzazzI stand with Hawkwing and others who tip their hat to Bronco and honor him for the things he's done in his decade at BYU. He has earned every bit of the respect UVA is paying him in recruiting him and paying him that kind of money. Personally, I think they are getting a bargain.
I will greatly miss the fact that under Bronco, no BYU fan had to feel apologetic about being a devout mormon, nor did they have to keep it under their hat for fear of offending. Even LaVell couldn't accomplish that.
But a much bigger observation seems to be missed this past week, I least I haven't run across it yet, so with apologies for what I might have missed, I thought I'd take my lunch break to point out what appears to me obvious, but overlooked:
BYU is not a big-time program. They aren't even a Power 5 school. It is sad, and I among others have been in denial about it for years, but this move makes this fact irrefutably true. If you think I'm trying to simply dis the program then you don't know my history as a poster. That's not it. This reality is economic mostly, though it is partially influenced by ideology. Meanwhile, with Bronco's departure, there is a possibility that it could be changed.
Let's start with this little mispriced observation from the Richmond VA newspaper:
Perhaps the article should have stated that this is the wholesale value of a national champtionship, or perhaps even the cost basis of one, but the unadulterated gross value in increased revenues for the Cavalier football team, the University and the community at large is undeniably worth much, much more than that. One million is merely how much of the profit they are willing to give to the coach, and only AFTER he reels in the big one.
That Virginia believes Bronco can accomplish that for them is not evidenced by the 1 million bonus they are giving him, it can be better counted in the 8 million dollars MORE that they will end up paying him over and above his BYU salary over the next five years. In effect, UVa is ponying up 9 million for Bronco to win a championship for them. Again, that is the part they are willing to share. The true value of this championship is much, much, more than that.
Which is why BYU is not a P5 school. The reality is that another championship for the cougars is not nearly as capable of being exploited and capitalized in Utah Valley and greater Mormondom as it would be at a school like Virginia or most of the other P5 schools (no, I'm not blind, I'm not including Iowa State, for example, in that list of other P5 schools, but I am counting Vanderbilt.)
Consider the beer endorsement revenues alone. These programs are meant to be a minor league for that biggest of sports enterprises in the world, the ultimate-fat heavyweight of moneybaggers: the NFL. The NFL is so valuable that its minor league (the P5 portion of the NCAA D1-A), along with a little community pride, rivals the NBA in revenue and interest across the nation.
These schools are locked in a high-stakes gamble that requires them to spend untold revenues at getting pre-NFL level talent into the stadium before that talent can get paid anything worthwhile. Its a bad system to be sure, and one that BYU is morally unaligned with. And there's the rub.
Bronco never seriously tried make NFL entry a serious point of his program. I doubt he'll be able to carry that attitude going forward. If he does, he'll become one of the highest paid failures in recent memory.
Meanwhile, the scarcity of pre-NFL talent showed up increasingly each year under Bronco, culminating with the fact that Utah actually beat Michigan and BYU lost by a shutout just three weeks later. I thought Michigan's success was a statistical outlier at first but as the year wore on it was obvious that Michigan was simply that good. But why then was BYU unable to hang with them when Utah beat them. Was it just that Utah got lucky and got them early? If that were true, then Michigan shouldn't have lost another game. But they did. Twice!
No the answer was more simple. Our trophy receivers might be tall, but they are slow and comparatively weak. They were easily pushed around by shorter, albeit faster and stronger DBs in Michigan's secondary--guys that will be playing on Sunday soon enough.
Bronco came to realize he could not realistically expect to recruit that calibre of player. So he designed a system he could use that would work with just the players he did have. He outperformed, to be sure, but even the system had its limits.
Which leaves, literally, BYU and its fans back in the dust. Independence is a nice step up and out of the MW or WAC, the ESPN detail made that clear, but unless the next coach can solve the riddle of making future NFL players compatible with the BYU campus and culture, the economics have spoken the truth: BYU will never achieve its fans fondest dreams of winning a national championship.
I will greatly miss the fact that under Bronco, no BYU fan had to feel apologetic about being a devout mormon, nor did they have to keep it under their hat for fear of offending. Even LaVell couldn't accomplish that.
But a much bigger observation seems to be missed this past week, I least I haven't run across it yet, so with apologies for what I might have missed, I thought I'd take my lunch break to point out what appears to me obvious, but overlooked:
BYU is not a big-time program. They aren't even a Power 5 school. It is sad, and I among others have been in denial about it for years, but this move makes this fact irrefutably true. If you think I'm trying to simply dis the program then you don't know my history as a poster. That's not it. This reality is economic mostly, though it is partially influenced by ideology. Meanwhile, with Bronco's departure, there is a possibility that it could be changed.
Let's start with this little mispriced observation from the Richmond VA newspaper:
How much is a national championship worth? The contract agreed to last week by the University of Virginia and new Cavaliers football coach Bronco Mendenhall answers that question: $1 million
Perhaps the article should have stated that this is the wholesale value of a national champtionship, or perhaps even the cost basis of one, but the unadulterated gross value in increased revenues for the Cavalier football team, the University and the community at large is undeniably worth much, much more than that. One million is merely how much of the profit they are willing to give to the coach, and only AFTER he reels in the big one.
That Virginia believes Bronco can accomplish that for them is not evidenced by the 1 million bonus they are giving him, it can be better counted in the 8 million dollars MORE that they will end up paying him over and above his BYU salary over the next five years. In effect, UVa is ponying up 9 million for Bronco to win a championship for them. Again, that is the part they are willing to share. The true value of this championship is much, much, more than that.
Which is why BYU is not a P5 school. The reality is that another championship for the cougars is not nearly as capable of being exploited and capitalized in Utah Valley and greater Mormondom as it would be at a school like Virginia or most of the other P5 schools (no, I'm not blind, I'm not including Iowa State, for example, in that list of other P5 schools, but I am counting Vanderbilt.)
Consider the beer endorsement revenues alone. These programs are meant to be a minor league for that biggest of sports enterprises in the world, the ultimate-fat heavyweight of moneybaggers: the NFL. The NFL is so valuable that its minor league (the P5 portion of the NCAA D1-A), along with a little community pride, rivals the NBA in revenue and interest across the nation.
These schools are locked in a high-stakes gamble that requires them to spend untold revenues at getting pre-NFL level talent into the stadium before that talent can get paid anything worthwhile. Its a bad system to be sure, and one that BYU is morally unaligned with. And there's the rub.
Bronco never seriously tried make NFL entry a serious point of his program. I doubt he'll be able to carry that attitude going forward. If he does, he'll become one of the highest paid failures in recent memory.
Meanwhile, the scarcity of pre-NFL talent showed up increasingly each year under Bronco, culminating with the fact that Utah actually beat Michigan and BYU lost by a shutout just three weeks later. I thought Michigan's success was a statistical outlier at first but as the year wore on it was obvious that Michigan was simply that good. But why then was BYU unable to hang with them when Utah beat them. Was it just that Utah got lucky and got them early? If that were true, then Michigan shouldn't have lost another game. But they did. Twice!
No the answer was more simple. Our trophy receivers might be tall, but they are slow and comparatively weak. They were easily pushed around by shorter, albeit faster and stronger DBs in Michigan's secondary--guys that will be playing on Sunday soon enough.
Bronco came to realize he could not realistically expect to recruit that calibre of player. So he designed a system he could use that would work with just the players he did have. He outperformed, to be sure, but even the system had its limits.
Which leaves, literally, BYU and its fans back in the dust. Independence is a nice step up and out of the MW or WAC, the ESPN detail made that clear, but unless the next coach can solve the riddle of making future NFL players compatible with the BYU campus and culture, the economics have spoken the truth: BYU will never achieve its fans fondest dreams of winning a national championship.