Here are my thoughts:
1) Tom Holmoe already has a short list. Bronco put his resume out to at least three openings last year, and TH knew about it. He's been quietly evaluating options from afar for nearly a year now. I put this in the category of things I know.
2) Tom Holmoe and BYU knew about this from Bronco before the Las Vegas Bowl announcement was made, and in fact it is part of the reason the LV Bowl was announced prior to Bowl Selection Sunday. I put this in the category of things I strongly suspect.
3) Tom Holmoe prefers to promote people to head coach positions rather than making outside hires. It's one thing to know about and understand the unique requirements and expectations that come with being a head coach at BYU. It's something else entirely to understand how those things affect how the programs can be and are run. With the football team being the most prominent of the programs, the room for failure on that front is exceedingly small. However, TH will make an outside hire if the fit is compelling. I put this in the category of things I know.
4) Any hire has to pass muster with the First Presidency of the Church and have a sit down with one of them prior to being hired. This is something we all know. I strongly suspect that Bronco raised the bar for what the BoT/First Presidency expects from a football coach--a standard bearer first and foremost.
With all that, here is how I view the field:
Most realistic choices:
1) Ken N. -- I think this was TH's very first call. He checks off every single box, and the Church has already put him out there as a standard-bearer. The biggest question here is what salary he would require--he already makes more than BYU paid Bronco. His son is already on the team here in Provo.
2) Dr. Anae -- The quintessential inside promotion. He would take it if offered, and I believe he has the football resume. The concerns are his abrasive manner with the media, ability to run the entire football organizations, and his hot/cold relationship with players--it's okay to do that as an OC, but a HC has to be open and approachable to everyone at all times.
3) Lance Reynolds -- He's out there and for a time was the heir apparent. If this is the guy, I think the long-game is to develop a better in-house promotions opportunity for five or so years down the road.
Outside chance choices:
4) Brandon Doman -- Was heir apparent after Reynolds.
5) Paul Tidwell -- like a friendlier Bronco. He's actually my darkhorse choice at this point.
6) Darell Bevell -- he would have to want the job and absolutely nail the interview process. This may be the right time to pick up a Seahawks coach while they are down.
longshot choices:
7) Andy Reid -- The albatross here is 2-years, $15MM left on his contract with the Chiefs. Head coaches are protected by buyout provisions. Who buys that out?
8 ) Kyle Whittingham -- Again, who buys him out (3 years, $8MM remanining)? I think he also has little, if any desire to come back to BYU, and he has unfinished business at Utah after cracking the top-4 this season, only to plummet nearly out of the rankings late in the season.
9) Lance Anderson -- he would have to want the job and absolutely nail the interview process. His resume is a bit thin for an outside hire to HC--he's only been a coordinator for two seasons now, but that keeps him in price range.
10) Ty Detmer -- pipe dream. May as well put Chad Lewis in and avoid paying to relocate someone.
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