1st CFP ranking tonight

1. Who should be in the top 4 tonight?

2. Who will be in the top 4 tonight?



I think is should be LSU, Clemson, Michigan St. and Memphis. They are all undefeated and all have the best wins of any of the undefeated teams.



I think it will be LSU, Clemson, Ohio St. and Baylor.

SHOULD BE (if CFP started today): LSU, Clemson, Michigan St., Notre Dame.



Memphis and Florida the last two out.



- Also considered: Iowa, Alabama, Ohio St., Stanford, Utah, Ole Miss.



- No resume to support top-4 consideration: Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma St., Houston, Toledo.



WILL BE: Clemson, LSU, Ohio St., TCU



With one-third of the season or more left to play, the analysis is incomplete. The analysis will likely change greatly with backloaded November schedules, especially in the Big 12, SEC, and B1G East...and the Conference Championship games.



*Did you know:

- LSU, Notre Dame, Iowa, Stanford, and Utah are the only team with 3 wins or more against teams that are currently receiving votes in one of the major polls. Ie, all have arguably better resumes than #1 Ohio St., #2 Baylor, and #3/5 TCU.



-#2 Baylor and #3/5 TCU haven't played anyone currently receiving ANY votes in either major poll.



- LSU is the only team in the nation with 2 wins or more against currently-ranked opponents (#11 Florida, at #25 Mississippi St.).



-#1 Ohio St. has NO games against ranked opponents and one win against a team that is currently receiving votes in one of the polls (#31 Penn St.)



-#7 Alabama has two 'quality win' (at #24 Texas A&M, v. #26 Wisconsin) and one top-25 loss (#19 Ole Miss). Both Memphis and Florida beat #19 Ole Miss.



-#19 Ole Miss has the best win in College Football - AT #7 Alabama. However, they have no other wins against teams receiving votes and two top-25 losses.



-Undefeated #12 Oklahoma St., #18 Houston and #20 Toledo have NO games against teams receiving any votes in either major poll.



-#14 Oklahoma and #17 FSU have NO games against teams receiving any votes in either poll...and BAD losses to teams that have no votes in either poll.

Last year when the committee came out with their first list wasn't it way different than the AP and coaches polls at the time? That seems to be what I remember. I wonder what the disparity will be this time and if the pollsters are more in tune this year with how the committee thinks or not.

BlueK wrote:
Last year when the committee came out with their first list wasn't it way different than the AP and coaches polls at the time? That seems to be what I remember. I wonder what the disparity will be this time and if the pollsters are more in tune this year with how the committee thinks or not.

I looked it up.



AP Poll 10/26/14



1. Miss St.

2. Florida St.

3. Alabama

4. Auburn

5. Oregon

6. Notre Dame

7. Mississippi

8. Michigan St.

9. Georgia

10. TCU



1st Playoff Poll 10/28/14



1. Miss St.

2. Florida St.

3. Auburn

4. Mississippi

5. Oregon

6. Alabama

7. TCU

8. Michigan St.

9. Kansas St.

10. Notre Dame

So there were a few meaningful differences for some of the teams with others ranked the same.

Outside of BYU officially being locked out of the top level of competition the rankings vs an actual playoff is the most likely reason my college football fandom could die. I can't stand it that the champion is based on subjectivity. Yes, there's a two game "playoff" but it's still a bunch a bull. 75% of schools start the season with 0 opportunity to win.



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The 4 team playoff is a great start, but I think an 8 team playoff is ideal. 16 would be awesome, because the more the merrier, but realistically it seems like most years there is a pretty sizable and obvious separation between the top 6-8 teams and the rest of the coutry. I could be wrong, but my prediction would be that the 16 seed in a CFP would fare about as well as a 16 seed in march madness

tmoney35 wrote:
The 4 team playoff is a great start, but I think an 8 team playoff is ideal. 16 would be awesome, because the more the merrier, but realistically it seems like most years there is a pretty sizable and obvious separation between the top 6-8 teams and the rest of the coutry. I could be wrong, but my prediction would be that the 16 seed in a CFP would fare about as well as a 16 seed in march madness

8 is what we need. 16 is too many for football.



Of course, I say this while still believing it's the least worst situation. The national champion, and who can get there, should be decided on the field - NOT by biased polls or bogus computer rankings - with all DI teams having an equal chance to get there.



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I tend to think 8 is too many and 4 is too few. I would go with 6 teams and give the top two seeds a bye for the first game. That assures the five power conferences can at least get their champion in, so long as their champ only has one loss or fewer. It also leaves an open spot for an undefeated BYU, or one loss Notre Dame, or, if both of those didn't happen, an undefeated non-power 5 to get a shot in the playoffs without unseating another power 5 conference champ, as happens with the current four game format.



Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying power 5 champs should have an auto bid, just that it would more likely be the case that power 5 champs with one loss or less would be ranked in the top 6, as would an undefeated BYU or one loss Notre Dame (depending on how bad the loss was and to whom).



The beauty of this system is that if 1 and 2 take care of business in their first game of the playoff, they will only play two extra games, like they do in a four team playoff and unlike an 8 team format that would require three extra games for the eventual champions.

Cougarfan87 wrote:
I tend to think 8 is too many and 4 is too few. I would go with 6 teams and give the top two seeds a bye for the first game. That assures the five power conferences can at least get their champion in, so long as their champ only has one loss or fewer. It also leaves an open spot for an undefeated BYU, or one loss Notre Dame, or, if both of those didn't happen, an undefeated non-power 5 to get a shot in the playoffs without unseating another power 5 conference champ, as happens with the current four game format.



Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying power 5 champs should have an auto bid, just that it would more likely be the case that power 5 champs with one loss or less would be ranked in the top 6, as would an undefeated BYU or one loss Notre Dame (depending on how bad the loss was and to whom).



The beauty of this system is that if 1 and 2 take care of business in their first game of the playoff, they will only play two extra games, like they do in a four team playoff and unlike an 8 team format that would require three extra games for the eventual champions.

I would do 16 teams myself.

My ideal scenario would be the 'Division 4' break-off, where strict minimum attendance and FCOA scholarships are enforced. So, basically, the P5 plus an expanded AAC (with some of MWC and others added), and BYU and Notre Dame. So 80 or so teams at the top level of FBS football. The other 50 or so teams play within a sub-level (and have their own playoff, with games before Christmas, between Christmas and New Year's, and just after New Year's).



Division 4 teams cannot play FCS opponents and only one sub-level opponent. This would create a bunch of new and exciting OOC games among the P5 and top-level schools.



Then, have an 8-team CFP with autobids for the 6 conference champs (P5 plus AAC); just two at-large. Play the Round 1 Quarterfinals using the NY6 bowls, semi-finals on the Friday, Saturday, or Monday that is about 7 days after Dec. 31 or Jan. 1 (January 7-8 most years); and CFP championship on Friday, Saturday, or Monday that is about two weeks after New Year's (January 14-15 most years). (I think 2020 is the only year where January 14 or 15 are not the second Friday, Saturday, or Monday after Dec. 31 or Jan. 1.)



Bam!

My second choice scenario - where 'Division 4' break-off does not happen, is to have a 12-team playoff that includes automatic bids for ALL FBS conference champions. If they play at the same level, all conference championship should have a shot.



The CFP Selection Committee ranks the 10 champions and TWO at large invitees for the 12-team Field.



ROUND 1: Play-In, DECEMBER 11-12

A: #12 at #9

B: #11 at #10



The Round 1 Play-In games are played at the home fields of the higher seeds. I thought about having these games at neutral sites, but I believe the attendance will be better if held on campus. These will likely be four of the G5 champions - but there is no requirement; a P5 team could be in this Round 1, if there were multiple G5 champions ranked ahead of them.



ROUND 2: PLAY-IN BOWLS, DECEMBER 19-20

POINSETTIA BOWL: A winner v. #8

MIAMI BEACH BOWL: B winner v. #7

NEW ORLEANS BOWL: Round 1 Losers

(can switch, based on geography)



These bowls already play the week before Christmas and involve mostly G5 teams right now. They're good tourist locations with adequate venues. Their viewership and ratings have just shot up tremendously by making them elimination games. Most years, a maximum of one P5 team would be involved in this round. But that would be a P5 team ranked #7 or worse who probably SHOULD have to win a play-in game to be included in the CFP tournament anyway.



ROUND 3: QUARTERFINALS, DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 1

CFP: #1 v. Poinsettia Winner

CFP: #2 v. Miami Beach Winner

CFP: #3 v. #6

CFP: #4 v. #5

NY7: Contract or at large teams

NY7: Contract or at large teams

NY7: Contract or at large teams



This is the major change for the current CFP. The CFP expands from 2 to 4 bowl games. The Rose, Sugar, and Orange Bowl contracts stay in place when those bowls are not hosting CFP games. When they are hosting CFP games, all efforts possible are made to include at least one of the contract teams into such bowls. Most if not all P5 conference champs will play in one of the 4 CFP bowls, so there will not be many displaced P5 champions. The only scenario would be a P5 champion that is ranked outside of the top-6 who loses a Play-In game. But, just in case, the CITRUS bowl is added to the mix, in order to have a landing spot for any displaced P5 conference. The Citrus Bowl is already played on New Year's, between the B1G and SEC. The NY6 becomes the NY7.



NY7 Bowls include: Rose, Sugar, Orange, Cotton, Fiesta, Peach, and CITRUS.

NY7 matchups based on CFP rankings, contracts and geography.



ROUND 4: SEMIFINALS, JANUARY 8-9

Two semifinal games played at the SAME VENUE! (like the NCAA Final Four)

(based on previous year's National Championship site)



2016 - Arlington, TX

2017 - Glendale, AZ

2018 - Tampa, FL

2019 - Atlanta, GA

2020 - Santa Clara, CA

2021 - New Orleans, LA



CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP, January 15



2016 - Glendale, AZ

2017 - Tampa, FL

2018 - Atlanta, GA

2019 - Santa Clara, CA

2020 - New Orleans, LA

Here's an example based on the Week 10 CFP Rankings and various G5 conference standings:



The Field:



(1)Clemson (ACC Champ)

(2)LSU (SEC Champ)

(3)Ohio St. (B1G Champ)

(4)Alabama (at large)

(5)Notre Dame (at large)

(6)Baylor (Big 12 Champ)

(7)Stanford (PAC Champ)

(8)Memphis (AAC Champ)

(9)Toledo (MAC Champ)

(10)Boise St. (MWC Champ)

(11)W. Kentucky (CUSA Champ)

(12)Arkansas St. (SB Champ)



ROUND 1: PLAY-IN, DECEMBER 11-12

A: (12)Arkansas St. at (9)Toledo

B: (11)W. Kentucky at (10)Boise St.



ROUND 2: PLAY-IN BOWLS, DECEMBER 19-20

NEW ORLEANS BOWL: (9)Toledo (A winner) v. (8)Memphis

POINSETTIA BOWL: (10)Boise St. (B winner) v. (7)Stanford

MIAMI BEACH BOWL: W. Kentucky v. Arkansas St. (Round 1 Losers)

(locations based on higher-seed geography)



ROUND 3: NY7 BOWLS, DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 1

ORANGE[CFP]: (1)Clemson v. Memphis (New Orleans Winner)

SUGAR[CFP]: (2)LSU v. Stanford (Poinsettia Winner)

COTTON[CFP]: (3)Ohio St. v. (6)Baylor

FIESTA[CFP]: (4)Alabama v. (5)Notre Dame



NY7 Exhibition:

ROSE: Michigan St. v. Utah (B1G v. PAC)

PEACH: TCU v. Iowa (at large v. at large)

CITRUS: Florida v. Oklahoma St. (at large v. at large)



ROUND 4: SEMIFINALS, JANUARY 8-9

AT&T Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Game #1: (2)LSU v. (3)Ohio St.

Game #2: (1)Clemson v. (4)Alabama



CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP, January 15

Glendale, Arizona

(1)Clemson v. (2)LSU



[winners based on current rankings]

In a perfect world...





1. Restructure the 128 FBI teams into eight 16 team conferences, with 2 divisions each.



2. Each team has 1 out of conference game at the beginning of the year. They can play whoever, including traditional rivals in another conference, but FCS teams are no longer allowed.



3. Each team then plays the other 7 teams in their division. This means every team plays at least 8 games. And those 8 games mean a lot. Quality over quantity.



4. The top team in each division play each other for the conference championship. This leaves 8 conferences champions.



5. Those 8 teams move into the playoffs. The 2 teams that play for the National Championship will have played 12 games total.



6. Money from the playoffs is distributed among all conferences and teams, with the winning ones getting a bigger share.



7. This gives every team an equal chance to become national champions. And it's decided on the field, not by biased polls or bogus computer rankings. It also does away with all the meaningless, everyone .500 and over bowl games. And that includes the stinkin' Roses Bowl and others. Get rid of 'em.



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