Chances of Going 4-0 in November

I saw where ESPN said BYU has a 22% chance of running the gauntlet this month. Dang if that didn't sound a little or a lot low. 22%!!!!



Well, they might be right. It's a matter of probability. They figure out the probability of BYU winning each game and then they multiply them all together and that's how they came up with that number.



Suppose BYU has a 70% chance of beating both Missouri and USU, then there would be a 49% chance of winning both games. There is also a 9% chance of losing both games.



I'm no football guru, but I think we have a 70% chance agains Missouri, a 65% against USU and a 90% against the other two.



That gives BYU about a 38% chance of lossless month.

I put it at more like 100%. 10-2 and 11-2 with our bowl win. But I'm an optimist. :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy:

I think the USU game in Logan is closer to 50%. If they create turnovers like they did against Boise St., then we are doomed. Weather will also likely be a factor - but I'm not sure whether that favor us or the Aggies.



The SJSU and Missouri games are should wins, but on the road (especially in an NFL stadium against MO) could tilt things somewhat.



I'd say:



@SJSU - 75%

@Missouri - 60%

Fresno St. - 90%

@USU - 50%



So, about 20% chance of finishing the regular season with 10 wins.

there are 2 teams that could give us trouble, Missouri and USU. Missouri is a dumpster fire right now so that eliminates them, which leaves USU. USU is a toss up IMO. I think BYU will win that game because BYU has the better QB, but it will not be easy. I think BYU does go 4-0 this month and ends the season 10-2 which, IMO, will be Bronco's finest coaching job for his career.

The issue with doing this kind of math is that the outcomes are not all independent of one another. Multiplying all the probabilities together to get the joint probability of all events occurring together is only valid when all of the events are statistically independent. I don't blame ESPN for making this kind of mistake; I mean, this is basically the same error NASA made that resulted in the Challenger disaster, so a bunch of sports talking heads shouldn't feel too bad.



With these games being sequential, you should take the probability that we beat SJSU, and then multiply the probability that we beat Missouri given the fact that we have already beaten SJSU, then multiply the probability that we beat Fresno St. given the fact that we won the previous two, and so on. You can learn more about how all this works by looking up conditional probability and Bayesian statistics.



Given what we know about SJSU and Fresno and the issues Missouri has been having on offense, I'd say those three are pretty likely wins, and the only game that really gives us any helpful information is the USU game - which, unfortunately, is last. So, for me, whatever probability you give us of beating USU is what I would use as the probability of winning all 4.

I think we go EITHER 10-3 or 11-2. This is a great season in the making.



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For some crazy reason - USU plays the Y tough and well. They have had our number lately. Caused Taysom and the Cougs a lot of heartache. :angry: I think we beat USU this year. It will be a slugfest.



I think we go 4-0 in Nov.

I wouldn't say they have our number, even lately. They've beaten us twice since, what, 1994? And 5 times in the last 40 years? And the two losses we've had recently had circumstances that will not be happening this year, such as: 1) Jake Heaps, 2) Jaime Hill, 3) A freak injury to Taysom Hill and about 5 defensive starters by the end of the 1st half.

redneckjedi wrote:
I wouldn't say they have our number, even lately. They've beaten us twice since, what, 1994? And 5 times in the last 40 years? And the two losses we've had recently had circumstances that will not be happening this year, such as: 1) Jake Heaps, 2) Jaime Hill, 3) A freak injury to Taysom Hill and about 5 defensive starters by the end of the 1st half.

Knocking on wood........

I'll call my shot: BYU is going 4-0 to end the season. And finishing the season w/ four straight wins is something BYU has done with some relative frequency.



Just looking at the regular season, BYU won the final four games in 2014, 2009, 2007, and 2006.



If you count the bowl game, the Cougars won the final four games of the season in 2011 and 2009.



So six times in Bronco's ten previous season, BYU has either won the final four games of the season or regular season. All tolled, BYU has a 38-9 (.776) record in games 9-13.

redneckjedi wrote:

I wouldn't say they have our number, even lately.

Thank you for your perspective. Mine is different. We disagree.

Hoping for 4-0, as well as a bowl win...



But...if I had to predict...



I think the safer bet is we drop a game to Missouri/Utah State/Bowl opponent, and finish 10-3.



Hope I'm wrong and we win out.



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I really do think we beat the hell out of SJSU this Friday, and I think we win against USU, but yes it will be a slugfest of the first order to get that W, on every position and aspect of the game. After they dismantled Boise State, I was impressed. BYU fans gotta get crazy in Logan!!! Those aggies want it bad. They will be the difference between 10-3 and 11-2. (And under the covers at night, I really like USU just generally).



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Ddawg wrote:

I wouldn't say they have our number, even lately.

Thank you for your perspective. Mine is different. We disagree.

I love that we can be civil and friendly about it, though. :)

redneckjedi wrote:

redneckjedi wrote:

I wouldn't say they have our number, even lately.

Thank you for your perspective. Mine is different. We disagree.

I love that we can be civil and friendly about it, though. :)

I enjoy your posts. Have a great day. Take no prisoners. Kill them all - in a civil way. ;)

Ddawg wrote:

Ddawg wrote:

I wouldn't say they have our number, even lately.

Thank you for your perspective. Mine is different. We disagree.

I love that we can be civil and friendly about it, though. :)

I enjoy your posts. Have a great day. Take no prisoners. Kill them all - in a civil way. ;)

Sheesh....would you two go hug it out over in "The Lounge" :) This is a football forum. There is no civility in football. We are fans of the dirtiest team in college football. You have a responsibility as a fan to emulate that reputation ;) Now back to the topic at hand, I think this team goes 4-0 in November with a slugfest in KC vs Mizzou and another slugfest in Logan vs USU. I personally would like to see a bowl game in Hawaii against a one or 2 loss AAC team such as Temple, Houston, or Memphis. As a fan, I would find that more interesting than a match-up with the 6th or 7th place team from the PAC 12 in Las Vegas. 10-2 BYU vs 10-2 Temple or an 11-1 Memphis/Houston would be a fun game to see. Could you imagine a rematch with Memphis?

Wolverine wrote:
...Now back to the topic at hand, I think this team goes 4-0 in November with a slugfest in KC vs Mizzou and another slugfest in Logan vs USU. I personally would like to see a bowl game in Hawaii against a one or 2 loss AAC team such as Temple, Houston, or Memphis. As a fan, I would find that more interesting than a match-up with the 6th or 7th place team from the PAC 12 in Las Vegas. 10-2 BYU vs 10-2 Temple or an 11-1 Memphis/Houston would be a fun game to see. Could you imagine a rematch with Memphis?

OK. That would actually be a great game! However, Hawaii on Christmas Eve is a lame bowl, IMO. Most LDS Cougar fans will be busy with family and, you know, Christmas.



A contest in Vegas would get good BYU support. Also, I think BYU matches up better against an ASU or Cal as opposed to Memphis - better chance for victory.

YNot wrote:

...Now back to the topic at hand, I think this team goes 4-0 in November with a slugfest in KC vs Mizzou and another slugfest in Logan vs USU. I personally would like to see a bowl game in Hawaii against a one or 2 loss AAC team such as Temple, Houston, or Memphis. As a fan, I would find that more interesting than a match-up with the 6th or 7th place team from the PAC 12 in Las Vegas. 10-2 BYU vs 10-2 Temple or an 11-1 Memphis/Houston would be a fun game to see. Could you imagine a rematch with Memphis?

OK. That would actually be a great game! However, Hawaii on Christmas Eve is a lame bowl, IMO. Most LDS Cougar fans will be busy with family and, you know, Christmas.



A contest in Vegas would get good BYU support. Also, I think BYU matches up better against an ASU or Cal as opposed to Memphis - better chance for victory.

Good points and I agree for the most part. However,think about this, DVR the game and then when you are up at midnight assembling the whatever for the kids you can watch the bowl game instead of A Christmas Story for the 99th time :)

Wolverine wrote:

redneckjedi wrote:

redneckjedi wrote:

I wouldn't say they have our number, even lately.

Thank you for your perspective. Mine is different. We disagree.

I love that we can be civil and friendly about it, though. :)

I enjoy your posts. Have a great day. Take no prisoners. Kill them all - in a civil way. ;)

Sheesh....would you two go hug it out over in "The Lounge" :) This is a football forum. There is no civility in football. We are fans of the dirtiest team in college football. You have a responsibility as a fan to emulate that reputation ;) Now back to the topic at hand, I think this team goes 4-0 in November with a slugfest in KC vs Mizzou and another slugfest in Logan vs USU. I personally would like to see a bowl game in Hawaii against a one or 2 loss AAC team such as Temple, Houston, or Memphis. As a fan, I would find that more interesting than a match-up with the 6th or 7th place team from the PAC 12 in Las Vegas. 10-2 BYU vs 10-2 Temple or an 11-1 Memphis/Houston would be a fun game to see. Could you imagine a rematch with Memphis?

I see where you're going with this... ;) Hopefully Kai Nacua has learned to keep his hands up.