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Bronco/BYU Performance Review & Stock Investment

by byufan4ever · 10/28/2015

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byufan4ever
First off, I just want to say that I like Bronco. Not love or hate, but like. This is for discussion purposes. I'm intrigued by what people will say, but please keep it civil!



My company just went through a massive layoff where every employee was rated and ranked and stacked. But people were only rated on their last two years of performance. So anything done before that no matter how grand did not matter one bit. A bit unfair maybe. But the world is a "what have you done for me lately" place.



What if Bronco was rated on his last two years of performance? I think he's done some good things in his tenure. But what has he done recently?



Also, what if Bronco/BYU were a stock that you could purchase as an investment with the plan to sell at a later date to make a profit? Would you invest in either Bronco or BYU football right now? If you dumped your entire retirement savings into these stocks would you see growth by the time your retire? For this silly little game let's say that the price of Bronco/BYU stock is some calculation of recent rankings and "prestige." It would be easy to just say wins, but not all wins are the same.
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Cougarfan87
Now would be a good time to buy. I think BYU is going to be an exciting program to watch for the next few years at least.
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Guest
Over the last 2 years I would have to give him an 8/10. Invest now.
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SpiffCoug
If I'm buying stock in BYU this year, it is because Tanner Mangum will be around for the near future.
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byufan4ever
SpiffCoug wrote:
If I'm buying stock in BYU this year, it is because Tanner Mangum will be around for the near future.


I'm actually more excited for Tanner than I ever was for Taysom.
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Stirfry
byufan4ever wrote:
If I'm buying stock in BYU this year, it is because Tanner Mangum will be around for the near future.


I'm actually more excited for Tanner than I ever was for Taysom.

Super Taysom was awesome but I'm still excited for Tanner.



Im buying. I think the only thing that could hurt us is if the NCAA dies and P5 separates but I don't think that can happen. The P5 need the G5.

Bronco could also quit at anytime and I see more growing pains then improvement if that happens.



I still think broncos stock is underrated as his standing with fans hasn't fully recovered from the Heaps/Riley debacle.



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blue42
I would sell short verticals where i can make money on the "stock" if it goes up or stays where it's at. That way I am not tied into BYU having to make a move up and I can still enjoy my Cougs regardless if they go up or sideways and I can continue to cheer for all the good things BYU represents.
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Gunk
On a two year scale, Bronco is a "B". You keep him around but start putting feelers out.



If BYU were a stock, I wouldn't invest. Past precedent shows the likelihood of future success is slim. BYU is likely to stay where it is as opposed to being a high-growth entity. If something were to change in the marketplace (P5 conference invite) that would increase the potential for high-growth then I would invest.



Some may say, "Oh, but we have a great QB." We've had great QBs in the past under Bronco and accomplished very little more than what we've accomplished in the last few years. There is little confidence in management's ability to tap into the full potential of the team. Meanwhile, schedules are getting harder while depth remains an issue.



IMO, BYU would not be a good investment. Prestige has plateued and unless there is new management or market factors change, I don't see much growth.



On a side note, while not a particularly active trader in real-life, I haven't lost any money yet.



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Mars
Gunk wrote:
Some may say, "Oh, but we have a great QB." We've had great QBs in the past under Bronco and accomplished very little more than what we've accomplished in the last few years.

Last great BYU passing QB- John Beck? I think the problem was choosing an offensive system that prefers starting rushing QBs.
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Gunk
Mars wrote:
Some may say, "Oh, but we have a great QB." We've had great QBs in the past under Bronco and accomplished very little more than what we've accomplished in the last few years.

Last great BYU passing QB- John Beck? I think the problem was choosing an offensive system that prefers starting rushing QBs.

Poor management. And until management shows otherwise, it would be unwise to invest. It's a good thing BYU isn't a business.



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Mars
Gunk wrote:
Poor management. And until management shows otherwise, it would be unwise to invest. It's a good thing BYU isn't a business.

I don't know. If BYU has a string of 11-2 seasons, then a string of 8-5 seasons, either they're due to win some more again, or something has changed for the worse. Bronco and Anae are the same, recruiting doesn't seem to have crumbled. Maybe the schedules are harder. I'm guessing that the team will be better with Mangum according to Sagarin, but the double-digit win seasons might not follow due to Independent schedules.
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mormonrasta
This is why I diversify and root for another football team as well.



I would rate BYU as a hold. I like Bronco and what he gets out of his talent, but next year the majority of the schedule are against teams that have out recruited us over the last 5 years. Given the current market forecast, I would expect reduced profitability.
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Gunk
Mars wrote:
Poor management. And until management shows otherwise, it would be unwise to invest. It's a good thing BYU isn't a business.

I don't know. If BYU has a string of 11-2 seasons, then a string of 8-5 seasons, either they're due to win some more again, or something has changed for the worse. Bronco and Anae are the same, recruiting doesn't seem to have crumbled. Maybe the schedules are harder. I'm guessing that the team will be better with Mangum according to Sagarin, but the double-digit win seasons might not follow due to Independent schedules.

Market uncertainty...



While 11-2 seasons were accomplished in the past, I'd argue the seasons did little to increase the prestige of BYU. We had a couple of great seasons where we played the 4th or 5th best Pac10 team in a bowl. Our bowl games are pretty much the same as an 8-5 team. Until we break into an NY6 or the playoffs, the prestige (value) of BYU will remain the same or slowly diminish. Management hasn't proven they are capable of getting BYU to a NY6 bowl or the playoffs. While our chances of doing so are better as an independent compared to G5 schools, it still requires the same results (undefeated) that management was up against prior to independence and playoffs introduction. Management failed to achieve the necessary results then and there is very little reason to assume they will be able to do so now until proven otherwise.



In short, Bronco and Anae should receive no benefit of the doubt from an investor. They are known commodities and until they show they are better, it would be an unwise investment to assume they are.



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Cougarfan87
Sorry, I'm putting my money on Mangum and Bronco's return to defense. If and when those things change. I'd be selling. I fully expect BYU to win out this year, and a 10 win year will pay great dividends going into next year.



Of course, I am a little worried about a dip in the market with a sophomore slump, but all in all, I think BYU is getting better, not worse.
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Jarhead
Buy low, sell high. I'm buying.



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frdbtr
Mars wrote:
Poor management. And until management shows otherwise, it would be unwise to invest. It's a good thing BYU isn't a business.

I don't know. If BYU has a string of 11-2 seasons, then a string of 8-5 seasons, either they're due to win some more again, or something has changed for the worse. Bronco and Anae are the same, recruiting doesn't seem to have crumbled. Maybe the schedules are harder. I'm guessing that the team will be better with Mangum according to Sagarin, but the double-digit win seasons might not follow due to Independent schedules.


What changed, is we can't keep a starting QB on the field for a whole season. When you have to re write the offensive game plan half way through the season, it is hard to win games. This year we got lucky and had a guy like Mangum to fill in for our starter. No offense to Bo Hoge but if he had come in during the Nebraska game, we may have only 1 win right now this year. All of those 11 win seasons had the same starting QB from snap 1 to last snap of the year. Makes a huge difference.
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frdbtr
Cougarfan87 wrote:
Sorry, I'm putting my money on Mangum and Bronco's return to defense. If and when those things change. I'd be selling. I fully expect BYU to win out this year, and a 10 win year will pay great dividends going into next year.



Of course, I am a little worried about a dip in the market with a sophomore slump, but all in all, I think BYU is getting better, not worse.


I honestly don't anticipate a sophomore slump. Tanner is still "rusty" from his mission, he is only going to get better.
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Guest
If we take this metaphor out, there's something to be said about investing in a stable, mature company, like investing in GM as opposed to MySpace. Yeah, there's not a lot of exciting growth, but you're going to get solid, steady returns year after year, whereas you invested all your money in Oregon last year and you're homeless this year.
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redneckjedi
hawkwing wrote:
If we take this metaphor out, there's something to be said about investing in a stable, mature company, like investing in GM as opposed to MySpace. Yeah, there's not a lot of exciting growth, but you're going to get solid, steady returns year after year, whereas you invested all your money in Oregon last year and you're homeless this year.


Dividends vs. Capital Gains - good dividend-paying stocks can make you a ton of money even if the stock price stays the same year after year, especially if you are reinvesting your dividends. I definitely think of BYU as this kind of investment. We are in the top 5 for wins over the last 40 years. I don't think you can have a better definition for a solid program than that.
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mtnradio
So is the only indicator of market performance a win-loss record? If so, there are better companies to invest in. BUT, that has never really been BYU's selling point. They include in their market metrics things like: quality of education, graduation rate, improving the quality of the inventory (the athletes), and clearly making it pay for the school. When you start looking at threads like the one about money made by the programs and comparing BYU and Utah, that is already an indicator of people truly investing with their money. The real money investors are making bank on BYU BECAUSE BYU puts so much focus on those other market metrics.



I'm a blue-goggled bull ... BUY!
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