Beating Cincy

There are obvious reasons to worry about this game: short week, Cincy's explosive offense, Tanner's injury.



I still can't create a calculation in my mind that gives the Bearcats better than a 50% chance of winning. 40% chance probably, but I'm still thinking it is most likely that BYU pulls off a win.



Mostly because BYU's major weakness tends to be its running defense. With East Carolina, a team that produces most of its yards on the ground, it was easy to believe that BYU's defense might struggle a bit. I was admittedly dismayed to see them score 17 points in the fourth quarter.



That being said, the pass defense was enough, and that should play well against Cincy's strength, which is a passing attack, potentially weakened by a red-shirt in his second game. Unlike Miami, we've got recent film on him.



Their senior RB could break out, so here's hoping the Defense finds a way and that the starting corners are back in the game this week.



Am I missing anything? Anyone see Cincy as a favorite to win or BYU having a serious stumble here? I'm going to hate all the drama the game will put the fans through, but I think BYU emerges victorious in a surprisingly more defense-oriented game.

ECU was an odd game for the defense.



First half the run defense played pretty well except for that one run by Summers from about 30 yards out. The pass defense was awesome, I don't know if ECU had more than 50 yards in total passing yards when Kemp came in. Enter Kemp - the guy absolutely lit up BYU. 28/36 - 371 yards, 10.3 average, 2tds, 1 int.



Makes me very nervous for Cinci and their passing attack. They look a lot like Memphis from last year. Kemp was the first QB we've seen that can really throw the ball well and he made BYU's secondary pay. At least it gives BYU something to work on leading into the game this friday.

BroncoBot wrote:
ECU was an odd game for the defense.



First half the run defense played pretty well except for that one run by Summers from about 30 yards out. The pass defense was awesome, I don't know if ECU had more than 50 yards in total passing yards when Kemp came in. Enter Kemp - the guy absolutely lit up BYU. 28/36 - 371 yards, 10.3 average, 2tds, 1 int.

Well, as long as we don't have two starting DB's out for this game and an in-game injury to one of our only other two corners, forcing us to play a safety at corner, I think we'll be alright (as that's when the problems really started happening for our D in the ECU game).

Schmoe wrote:

ECU was an odd game for the defense.



First half the run defense played pretty well except for that one run by Summers from about 30 yards out. The pass defense was awesome, I don't know if ECU had more than 50 yards in total passing yards when Kemp came in. Enter Kemp - the guy absolutely lit up BYU. 28/36 - 371 yards, 10.3 average, 2tds, 1 int.

Well, as long as we don't have two starting DB's out for this game and an in-game injury to one of our only other two corners, forcing us to play a safety at corner, I think we'll be alright (as that's when the problems really started happening for our D in the ECU game).

Hopefully.



It was ugly out there though. Didn't notice until just a minute ago that hanneman had gone out of the game. Also didn't know about the 2 suspensions. Should help for sure.

The game rides on TM's leg. If he is out we are done for. If he is back to form, we will win baring any major injury or major collapse of the team.

scott715 wrote:
The game rides on TM's leg. If he is out we are done for. If he is back to form, we will win baring any major injury or major collapse of the team.

I'm not that down on Hoge. I think he could be a very serviceable QB with a whole week with the first team and calm those nerves down a bit. His passes (minus the int) looked good. He seemed more mobile than Tanner. If BYU's defense can keep cinci to less than 24, I like BYU's chances. Having Algie Brown back is a huge bonus.

One big thing is Cincy's defense isn't that good, they give up a lot of points and yds so I don't think BYU will have a hard time scoring. That said it will be tougher with Hoge but I think BYU will be able to run against them.



A healthy Tanner would have a field day, a 90% Tanner would still have a career day an 80% Tanner would make the game closer than it needs to be.

BroncoBot wrote:
ECU was an odd game for the defense.



First half the run defense played pretty well except for that one run by Summers from about 30 yards out. The pass defense was awesome, I don't know if ECU had more than 50 yards in total passing yards when Kemp came in. Enter Kemp - the guy absolutely lit up BYU. 28/36 - 371 yards, 10.3 average, 2tds, 1 int.



Makes me very nervous for Cinci and their passing attack. They look a lot like Memphis from last year. Kemp was the first QB we've seen that can really throw the ball well and he made BYU's secondary pay. At least it gives BYU something to work on leading into the game this friday.

Bronco suspended 2 players from the secondary before the game started and then Hanneman got hurt and left for the game. Being down 3 secondary players really hurt us. I don't think ECU has as much success against us with the pass if we are full strength. Plus some of those completions were unreal. There were at least a couple that the receivers just simply made awesome plays on.

frdbtr wrote:

ECU was an odd game for the defense.



First half the run defense played pretty well except for that one run by Summers from about 30 yards out. The pass defense was awesome, I don't know if ECU had more than 50 yards in total passing yards when Kemp came in. Enter Kemp - the guy absolutely lit up BYU. 28/36 - 371 yards, 10.3 average, 2tds, 1 int.



Makes me very nervous for Cinci and their passing attack. They look a lot like Memphis from last year. Kemp was the first QB we've seen that can really throw the ball well and he made BYU's secondary pay. At least it gives BYU something to work on leading into the game this friday.

Bronco suspended 2 players from the secondary before the game started and then Hanneman got hurt and left for the game. Being down 3 secondary players really hurt us. I don't think ECU has as much success against us with the pass if we are full strength. Plus some of those completions were unreal. There were at least a couple that the receivers just simply made awesome plays on.

Man it was unbelievable some of those passes by ECU's QB, he was putting them in there like they were laser guided! To take being down 3 secondary players due to suspensions and injuries, if you noticed Nacua had to play corner instead of safety, I think if he was back at his normal spot he would have been able to help out a little more on some of those passes, possibly with breakups or int's.



Think about this for Friday's game, Kafusi, Takitaki, and having Langi back, all reeking havic in the backfield, gives Warner more openings as well to make plays, Nacua back at his safety spot watching the QB's eyes and breaking on the ball, I think the defense will be a lot better against Cincy. I am not saying they will shut them down, but they will certainly play better than they have been.



Now on the offensive side I already mentioned if Tanner gets to play at 100% I think BYU's odds of winning are close to 80%. One of the big things that can make that number come down is if Ryker Matthews doesn't pull his head out of his butt, there were many times when he wouldn't even try to block the outside guy on many occasions he did get pulled later in the game for quite a while, but they let him back in I think it was the 4th qtr. I couldn't believe that a senior OL being so disinterested in blocking his guy. Most of the time that Tanner had to scramble was because of Matthews.

double post

crap the dreaded triple post!!

frdbtr wrote:

ECU was an odd game for the defense.



First half the run defense played pretty well except for that one run by Summers from about 30 yards out. The pass defense was awesome, I don't know if ECU had more than 50 yards in total passing yards when Kemp came in. Enter Kemp - the guy absolutely lit up BYU. 28/36 - 371 yards, 10.3 average, 2tds, 1 int.



Makes me very nervous for Cinci and their passing attack. They look a lot like Memphis from last year. Kemp was the first QB we've seen that can really throw the ball well and he made BYU's secondary pay. At least it gives BYU something to work on leading into the game this friday.

Bronco suspended 2 players from the secondary before the game started and then Hanneman got hurt and left for the game. Being down 3 secondary players really hurt us. I don't think ECU has as much success against us with the pass if we are full strength. Plus some of those completions were unreal. There were at least a couple that the receivers just simply made awesome plays on.

some of the passes it felt like the ball was basically star trek transporting directly into the hands of their receivers. Kemp proved his 70% completion rate was no joke.



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blue42 wrote:

BroncoBot wrote:
ECU was an odd game for the defense.



First half the run defense played pretty well except for that one run by Summers from about 30 yards out. The pass defense was awesome, I don't know if ECU had more than 50 yards in total passing yards when Kemp came in. Enter Kemp - the guy absolutely lit up BYU. 28/36 - 371 yards, 10.3 average, 2tds, 1 int.



Makes me very nervous for Cinci and their passing attack. They look a lot like Memphis from last year. Kemp was the first QB we've seen that can really throw the ball well and he made BYU's secondary pay. At least it gives BYU something to work on leading into the game this friday.

Bronco suspended 2 players from the secondary before the game started and then Hanneman got hurt and left for the game. Being down 3 secondary players really hurt us. I don't think ECU has as much success against us with the pass if we are full strength. Plus some of those completions were unreal. There were at least a couple that the receivers just simply made awesome plays on.

Man it was unbelievable some of those passes by ECU's QB, he was putting them in there like they were laser guided! To take being down 3 secondary players due to suspensions and injuries, if you noticed Nacua had to play corner instead of safety, I think if he was back at his normal spot he would have been able to help out a little more on some of those passes, possibly with breakups or int's.



Think about this for Friday's game, Kafusi, Takitaki, and having Langi back, all reeking havic in the backfield, gives Warner more openings as well to make plays, Nacua back at his safety spot watching the QB's eyes and breaking on the ball, I think the defense will be a lot better against Cincy. I am not saying they will shut them down, but they will certainly play better than they have been.



Now on the offensive side I already mentioned if Tanner gets to play at 100% I think BYU's odds of winning are close to 80%. One of the big things that can make that number come down is if Ryker Matthews doesn't pull his head out of his butt, there were many times when he wouldn't even try to block the outside guy on many occasions he did get pulled later in the game for quite a while, but they let him back in I think it was the 4th qtr. I couldn't believe that a senior OL being so disinterested in blocking his guy. Most of the time that Tanner had to scramble was because of Matthews.

Ryker Matthews is terrible. If he is the best we have at that position, then we are in trouble. I don't know if it is because he is "disinterested" or if he is just slow on his feet but he gets abused by anyone on the other side of him when he plays on the left end.

On terms of how tough of a game it will be, I don't see how it wouldn't be similar to the last 2 weeks. We will be favored but, even with Mangum in, we will have a fight on our hands. Without him, I think the edge goes to them. At least I've seen nothing to make me think otherwise.



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Maybe I have my head in my butt. It just seems to me that, one interception aside, Hanneman is really bad. When I watch the games with my son and the opponent has third and long, I usually say something to the effect of, "Just throw it Hanneman's way. Guaranteed first down." He really admires my prophetic savvy. So, I'm wondering, what's wrong with me? I mean, the guy still is out there playing.

1967cougar wrote:
Maybe I have my head in my butt. It just seems to me that, one interception aside, Hanneman is really bad. When I watch the games with my son and the opponent has third and long, I usually say something to the effect of, "Just throw it Hanneman's way. Guaranteed first down." He really admires my prophetic savvy. So, I'm wondering, what's wrong with me? I mean, the guy still is out there playing.

The reason should be extremely clear after the 2nd half of the ECU game. He went out and the entire defense had to shift around to fill his vacancy and the defense was a mess.



Bronco defenses are all about assignments, he knows his assignments. Yes, he gets beat on some plays, but he's a better option than what is behind him, because he's also athletic enough to not get beat for long.

Hanneman is simply the best we've had at the time. When you don't have the other defensive backs injured or suspended, he shouldn't see the field.