Archived Topic

So What Do We Know?

by Mars · 9/27/2015

Mars

9/27/2015, 6:11:02 AM

Trying to make sense of it all...

BYU is 2-2 (Sagarin #26).

BYU beat Nebraska (2-2, Sagarin #30) by a score of 33-28.

BYU beat #20 Boise State(3-1, Sagarin #31) by a score of 35-24.

BYU lost @ #10 UCLA (4-0, Sagarin #17) by a score of 23-24.

BYU lost @ Michigan(3-1, Sagarin #37) by a score of 0-31.

Nebraska beat South Alabama (2-2, Sagarin #141) by a score of 48-9.

Nebraska lost @ Miami (3-0, Sagarin #35) by a score of 33-36 in OT.

Nebraska beat Southern Miss (2-2, Sagarin #111) by a score of 36-28.

Boise State beat Washington (2-2, Sagarin #32) by a score of 16-13.

Boise State beat Idaho State (1-3, Sagarin #193) by a score of 52-0.

Boise State beat Virginia (1-3, Sagarin #63) by a score of 56-14.

UCLA State beat Virginia (1-3, Sagarin #63) by a score of 34-16.

UCLA beat UNLV (1-3, Sagarin #130) by a score of 37-3.

UCLA beat #16 Arizona (3-1, Sagarin #29) by a score of 56-30.

Michigan lost @ Utah (4-0, Sagarin #36) by a score of 17-24.

Michigan beat Oregon State (2-2, Sagarin #80) by a score of 35-7.

Michigan beat UNLV (1-3, Sagarin #130) by a score of 28-7.

Mars

9/27/2015, 6:38:48 AM

Playing the often highly-inaccurate "common opponents" game (using Sagarin ratings):

#26 BYU beat #30 Nebraska by 5 points. Nebraska lost @ #35 Miami by 3 points. BYU is 2 points better than #35 Miami (*8 points including double road games).

BYU beat #20 Boise State by 11 points. Boise State beat #32 Washington by 3 points. BYU is 14 points better than #32 Washington.

BYU lost @ #17 UCLA by 1 point. UCLA beat #29 Arizona by 26 points. BYU is *31 points better than #29 Arizona.

BYU lost @ #37 Michigan by 31 points. Michigan lost @ #36 Utah by 7 points. BYU is *32 points worse than #36 Utah.

Boise State beat #63 Virginia by 42 points. UCLA beat Virginia by 18 points. Boise State is *30 points better than #17 UCLA. BYU is **38 points better than #17 UCLA (on a neutral field). BYU is **28 points worse than #20 Boise State (on a neutral field).

UCLA beat #130 UNLV by 34 points. Michigan beat UNLV by 21 points. UCLA is *19 points better than #37 Michigan. BYU is **21 points better than #37 Michigan (on a neutral field). BYU is **49 points worse than UCLA (on a neutral field).

BroncoBot

9/27/2015, 6:40:27 AM

This makes my head spin...

Mars

9/27/2015, 6:45:11 AM

So...

#26 BYU is better than #20 but worse than #37. BYU is worse than #17 but better than #30.

#26 BYU is *better than #35, #32, and #29, but *worse than #36.

BYU is **better than #17 and #37, but **worse than #20.

Conclusion: BYU is NOT a Top 15 team, but the Cougars ARE a Top 40 team. BYU is probably somewhere between the 16th and the 38th best team in the nation. The team could have been anywhere from 0-4 to 4-0 right now. In the overall view of things, the Michigan game is the outlier on the season overall (which points towards the BYU coaches being vastly out-coached by Michigan's coaches more so than the players simply being out-played). BUT, judging by the flow of the season (injuries, suspensions, scouting, etc.), BYU is closer to the 38th best RIGHT NOW than the 16th (if/when at full health).

Mars

9/27/2015, 6:53:57 AM

Upcoming opponents by Sagarin rating:

UConn (#102).

ECU (#92).

Cincy (#78).

Wagner (#223).

@ San Jose State (#110).

#25 Missouri (#44).

Fresno State (#103).

@ Utah State (#74).

BYU "should" win out at least until the Mizzou game, and has a good chance to finish the regular season at either 10-2 or 9-3 before the bowl game. But our injuries seem to be mounting, and the season is spiraling down at the moment. Getting Tuiloma healthy will help. Still waiting on news about Hine, Langi, etc. There's always room for more disappointment and greater suffering as BYU fans though.

Go Cougars

scott715

10/4/2015, 4:07:54 PM

ECU has moved up to #63 and Cincy to #66. They both won this week.

BroncoBot

10/4/2015, 7:43:48 PM

Mars, I think your methods are as valid as any out there, although certainly humorous at times. Hard to place rankings on teams when 120+ teams are fighting for 4 playoff spots. certainly a lot of subjective measures even at this point.

Here's when I've taken away from BYU. They have an offense that is extremely streaky. 3 and outs abound, the running game is sometimes running for 100 a quarter and negative yardage throughout most of the game, the WR will eat up certain secondaries, and can't get open against others. Mangum looks like a 5th years sr or a true high school QB... the list goes on and on. If they can get all aspects firing in somewhat harmony, look out. This could be a very potent offense. We will miss M. Matthews next season.

The defense has bee somewhat more consistent. They give up a lot of yards on the ground, it is not the best run defense that has been fielded by Bronco mendendhall. how much of that is the injury to Tuiloma is still unknown as he only played 1/2 of one game. The passing game doesn't lock teams down but is serviceable and better than most secondaries seen at BYU.

This team is good enough to be competitive in most games. Good enough to beat a solid BSU team who will likely run the table in the MWC, Good enough to beat a mediocre Nebraska team. Good enough to take an overrated UCLA team down to the wire and come away with a coulda/woulda/shoulda type loss. Not good enough to challenge a quickly rising Michigan team who had tons of motivation to get a win against the darling of the first 3 weeks of 2015. Not good enough blow ANYONE of importance out and will be shut down by determined physical defenses. Not a great combo and I predict a few other losses, which is fine by me considering the injuries that have significantly lowered the bar for this season. This is a team that can't afford to make many mistakes and does not have a lot of cushion for unforced errors. To win out would be a tremendous effort. I agree that BYU is probably ranked somewhere around 20-40.

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