BYU Fans Nightmare: a track meet

From the thread "Vegas Thinks" Snoscythe astutely points out...

snoscythe wrote:
The over/under has been steady at 60, which means with a 16.5 point line, "Vegas thinks" UCLA wins at about 38-22 (38.25--21.75)

When you compare that with the CougarCorner prediction box (BYU wins 27-23), you recognize a few things that are worth talking about.



1. The average fan here is grossly out of sync with the playmaker's odds.



Now as pointed out in the aforementioned thread, Vegas odds are not meant to be a prediction, but rather a bet magnet. So it may not be much of a concern to see these two sources of prediction (once the bet is made, it IS a prediction), to be so far apart from each other. The question worth examining is why they are off...



2. CC fans predictions look a lot like the previous two games performances.



Typical application of the Availability Heuristic:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

explains the most likely reason for this. These were emotional events stored in living color in our recent memories. the details of these scream at us not to ignore them. It is quite likely that this next game won't look anything like the previous two. So what might it look like?



3. The game could be a blowout, for UCLA.



We all know this. In fact that is why we come here, to cougarcorner, to huddle as bros, like the male emperor penguins against the harsh, antarctic blizzard of doubt that this game conjures in our minds. Sorry for this fresh gust of ice-storm, but recall this moment:



UCLA 41- Nebraska 21

http://www.huskers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=209260268&DB_OEM_ID=100" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



That was two years ago, this week. Both ranked teams meeting in Lincoln, where Nebraska manages to get to the first half 21-10, only to be shut out in the second half and watch the Bruins put up 157 yards of rushing in the second half and leave Husker nation slack-jawed and disappointed. Ouch.



I know, different teams, different coaches, doesn't mean much. Yeah. Read the recap. It has a chillingly plausible ring to the way the game might go on Saturday. It really is going to be all about the run defense in all four quarters. Here's hoping for a little #4 magic late in the game. Is there really any hope? Could the game go any other way? Well there are three additional possibilities.



4. It could be a track meet.



I hate to imagine the possibility of two or three injuries to the BYU first string defense, but if the "dirtiest team in football" mantra emboldens UCLA receivers to take preemptive measures then BYU could be in for a game similar to that old bad memory John Beck endured against TCU in 2006. Seven injuries on defense and TCU comes from being down three scores. In that kind of a track meet situation, BYU losing 55-39 is all too easy to imagine. Little comfort will Tanner's numbers be in that kind of a loss. Still, there is something else that could happen.



5. The BYU CougarCorner fan base could be right



It seems hard to imagine but here's where it becomes possible: BYU fans are much more subdued than ever before. No one is talking NC (perish the thought) and only the remotest shadow of a concern is pointed towards playoff hopes. This is remarkably quiet for us. It suits well, to be honest, but it doesn't come from better education or even better manners. It speaks to what we have seen close up; namely, the BYU offense has struggled and though played with grit and determination, the defense has kept them in the game. So if the BYU defense can be THAT overpowering, then THEY will control the tempo and destiny of the game. The good news is that both the previous teams BYU played did have a strong rushing attack, so it isn't implausible that BYU's defense could contain UCLA's run. All told, there is still one more possibility:



6. It could be a blowout, for BYU.



Don't laugh. Think. The fact is that Tanner Mangum might be a spectacularly good QB, and that what we are seeing now is only the tippy top tip of the Iceberg. It could be that as he works his way deeper into the playbook, what emerges is something we haven't seen at BYU for a long time--maybe ever. A true 5-star recruit doing what he is naturally capable of doing. A Tim Tebow (minus the off-field personna) like force that simply cannot be denied on the field. In fact it wouldn't take very much for this to happen. One thing only really: the high percentage short pass play. Mangum has yet to master it at the speed needed for D1. But if he were able to do so in this game, not a tall order really, it would crack open the possibilities.



Imagine it! The drives sustain, the run game gets some room, the bruin safeties, desperately trying to keep everything in front of them, get burned on a play action pump-fake and BOOM Taysom's-your-uncle and Tanner's your Daddy! Cougars own the endzone.



That game could end 52-20 for BYU and as miraculous as the other two games were, only then would we all realize an undiscovered truth: Tanner was just warming up, and this defense has a couple All-Americans on it just waiting to be discovered.



There is a lot that could happen, but I stick to my premise that all anyone has seen is BYU underachieving because of adversity. The real BYU team may actually be much better than we know.

Great thoughts. A really good read.

I know we're way off from the Vegas line around here, but I have my reasons. :) The UNLV game was one source of optimism for me - they are not good, and UCLA's performance against them was similar to NIU's. The passing game was poor, and they only had 2 sustained drives, with a maximum length of 65 yards.



Another was last year. UCLA returns a lot of dudes from last year, with the notable exception of the quarterback. Those same dudes squeaked by the same Texas team we obliterated, lost to Utah and Stanford at home, and needed overtime to get by Colorado. They got up for the big games, and had let downs in the trap games. We may be ranked #19, but you know they're looking ahead to those Pac-12 conference games, the real challenge on their schedule, which begins next week on the road against ranked Arizona.



I would have liked our odds a lot better in this game with a senior--any senior--at the helm, but I can't complain about what Tanner has done so far. The baptism by fire continues tomorrow. And the last couple times we've gone into LA with a young QB ('03 USC, '07 UCLA), we've done pretty well for ourselves--could have won either game. It's about time one goes our way.

Good points all. I think if BYU wins it will be due to two things:



1: UCLA's run D may not be any better than Nebraska's or BSU's. At least, I don't know of any evidence that it is. And those previous BYU opponents both had extremely good defensive fronts. So we've already faced that.



2: UCLA's rushing offense might not be as good as the Husker's and the BSU Bronco's. They did not perform that solidly against UNLV? Were they perhaps training the two deep? Does that even matter, since their backups are supposed to be better than our starters?



Other sundry items:



I grow weary of hearing, alternately, that we are poor, hapless mid-major ugly ducklings, vs that we have an unfair advantage, pitting "grown men" against their "poor little 18 year old boys." So which is it? Are we the poor, hapless victims, or are they? I guess they keeps they options open, depending on which outcome they gits?



Or, are they priming the PAC Cheater refs to call phantom roughing calls on the up-starts, to preserve the natural order of things?



One thing's certain: So much has been written about how UCLA will finally crush BYU's luck, that they cannot help but be under-estimating our Cougars. Meanwhile, the Cougs are respecting them fully, but coming in with piss and vinegar. I really love this team and their attitude. They're not intimidated by anybody, and they will get some audible fan noise from the BYU cheering section. Lots of BYU fans in So. Cal



Back to the two items above: Tanner will do what Tanner does. But the real swing factor here should ride on who's able to stuff whom in the running game, for FOUR quarters. I think that's going to be us.



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