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YzzazzI want to address something here on the forum that is widespread in the media as well as here: that BYU got lucky, and is just two LUCKY plays away from being 0-2. It is this thinking, and the interpretation of stats that go along with this thinking, that gives BYU only a 16% chance at beating UCLA tomorrow.
I understand why it seems that way, but I believe the reality is quite different. If anything, BYU might be highly UNLUCKY, and should have won those games going away. When you ponder on that and the fact that the Hail Mary's weren't so terribly unlucky as you might think, then you begin to realize BYU has a realistic chance at winning on Saturday.
Consider the following situations:
1. Taysom breaks his foot.
Do you think that if Taysom Hill's foot stayed healthy that Nebraska would have come back? I doubt it because those two touchdowns they made were greatly aided by our offense's ability to stay on the field. If Taysom stays in the game, BYU sustains drives, and maintains the lead. Instead of a Hail Mary, we'd be in victory formation at the end of the game. What was UNlucky was that we had to resort to the Hail Mary because we had an RM Freshman who hadn't even gotten rid of all his "mission fat" yet.
2. The missed PI call.
Now generally speaking I thought the officiating in game 2 was not a major factor in the game and was handled well. However there was an important and glaring error which could have cost BYU the game if they hadn't evened it out.
I'm speaking of Blackmon's PI call. If Blackmon doesn't tear away the DBs arm, then the DB is interfering. The ref misses the initial infraction by the BSU defender and flags Blackmon, nullifying what would have been the highlight reel play instead of a Hail Mary at the end of the game. Talk about getting UNlucky!
IF Blackmon makes that play, the rest of the game changes. More time on the clock means different play calls which means potentially higher probability options available than a hail mary at the end of the game.
Admittedly BSU player's penalties and the refs willingness to call them worked in BYUs favor, but none of that should have been needed if Blackmon hadn't been UNlucky in the first place.
There are more examples if this in the first half, but they are less obvious and this play is sufficient as a symbol for all of them.
BYU managed to overcome BOTH of those bad luck situations, and go on to win the game. How did they do that? Not by chance.
I subscribe to this definition of luck (and I think it is especially applicable to BYU's first two games): "Luck is where preparedness meets opportunity."
If that maxim had no application here, the BYU wins the game by blind chance. The back to back wins on such plays are, at best, a 1-in-100 scenario (that's not a rhetorical estimation btw, but rather a studied number:http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/09/hail-mary-probabilities.html " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; )
But here's another way to look at BYU's acheivements: could have done so much better--should have really.
First off, the final pass plays in the last two games were probably no worse than 30% completion probabilities, and in fact may even be closer to 50%.
Consider this link which documents the pass completion rates of top NFL QBs:
http://www.hogshaven.com/2012/9/4/3291805/lies-damn-lies-and-statistics-dont-trust-the-deep-ball-passing-attack " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Which shows an average of 32% completion rate for 40+ yard passes. The BSU toss wasn't 40, it was 35, and it wasn't pro, it was college, where the numbers get even better.
This link about stats for College players...
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/2/28/4036850/adjusted-completion-percentages-collin-klein-matt-barkley " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
...shows the percentage of completions for a throw like Tanner's to be as high as 35%. When you add in the fact that BSU defenders were actually a bit out of place, you realize that Tanner wasn't choosing a low-probability option. His man would have a one on one shot and Tanner knows how to get the air under the ball.
Sure that play was unusual, and nobody expected it to be the go-to play, but in the end, at the time Tanner responded to the opportunity, there was actually a lot better chance for that completion than you might have imagined. Consider that a 40-yard pass from Aaron Rodgers, a QB who knows what he is doing, has an astounding 52% chance of completion! Could it be that Tanner's long-ball passing to tall and skilled targets should actually be expected to yield a higher percentage than 50-50?
If you look at the projected numbers here, even though BYU was the underdog per Vegas,
this website's advanced stats page projected byu to win by 11.
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/9/15/9334095/byu-boise-state-football-score-stats-recap " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The cougars under achieved!
The reality of both games was a stingy, run defense. They did that against two teams both expected to dominate on the ground. WIth a healthy Taysom, or a more experienced Tanner, the offense could have, and should have, been even more productive than they were.
This is of course, of no consequence should BYU lose, but the oddsmakers are betting that 1. Tanner will not improve, and
2. BYU's defensive play was unsustainable against UCLA.
both of which appear to be faulty assumptions if you simply look a bit closer.
All told, I'd very unscientifically guestimate that the odds of BYU winning this game are not as low as 16%, but they might be no better than 48%.
As a starting point, I'll take it. Because each drive BYU's defense stops dead, will increase those odds along the way. :crazy:
I understand why it seems that way, but I believe the reality is quite different. If anything, BYU might be highly UNLUCKY, and should have won those games going away. When you ponder on that and the fact that the Hail Mary's weren't so terribly unlucky as you might think, then you begin to realize BYU has a realistic chance at winning on Saturday.
Consider the following situations:
1. Taysom breaks his foot.
Do you think that if Taysom Hill's foot stayed healthy that Nebraska would have come back? I doubt it because those two touchdowns they made were greatly aided by our offense's ability to stay on the field. If Taysom stays in the game, BYU sustains drives, and maintains the lead. Instead of a Hail Mary, we'd be in victory formation at the end of the game. What was UNlucky was that we had to resort to the Hail Mary because we had an RM Freshman who hadn't even gotten rid of all his "mission fat" yet.
2. The missed PI call.
Now generally speaking I thought the officiating in game 2 was not a major factor in the game and was handled well. However there was an important and glaring error which could have cost BYU the game if they hadn't evened it out.
I'm speaking of Blackmon's PI call. If Blackmon doesn't tear away the DBs arm, then the DB is interfering. The ref misses the initial infraction by the BSU defender and flags Blackmon, nullifying what would have been the highlight reel play instead of a Hail Mary at the end of the game. Talk about getting UNlucky!
IF Blackmon makes that play, the rest of the game changes. More time on the clock means different play calls which means potentially higher probability options available than a hail mary at the end of the game.
Admittedly BSU player's penalties and the refs willingness to call them worked in BYUs favor, but none of that should have been needed if Blackmon hadn't been UNlucky in the first place.
There are more examples if this in the first half, but they are less obvious and this play is sufficient as a symbol for all of them.
BYU managed to overcome BOTH of those bad luck situations, and go on to win the game. How did they do that? Not by chance.
I subscribe to this definition of luck (and I think it is especially applicable to BYU's first two games): "Luck is where preparedness meets opportunity."
If that maxim had no application here, the BYU wins the game by blind chance. The back to back wins on such plays are, at best, a 1-in-100 scenario (that's not a rhetorical estimation btw, but rather a studied number:
But here's another way to look at BYU's acheivements: could have done so much better--should have really.
First off, the final pass plays in the last two games were probably no worse than 30% completion probabilities, and in fact may even be closer to 50%.
Consider this link which documents the pass completion rates of top NFL QBs:
Which shows an average of 32% completion rate for 40+ yard passes. The BSU toss wasn't 40, it was 35, and it wasn't pro, it was college, where the numbers get even better.
This link about stats for College players...
...shows the percentage of completions for a throw like Tanner's to be as high as 35%. When you add in the fact that BSU defenders were actually a bit out of place, you realize that Tanner wasn't choosing a low-probability option. His man would have a one on one shot and Tanner knows how to get the air under the ball.
Sure that play was unusual, and nobody expected it to be the go-to play, but in the end, at the time Tanner responded to the opportunity, there was actually a lot better chance for that completion than you might have imagined. Consider that a 40-yard pass from Aaron Rodgers, a QB who knows what he is doing, has an astounding 52% chance of completion! Could it be that Tanner's long-ball passing to tall and skilled targets should actually be expected to yield a higher percentage than 50-50?
If you look at the projected numbers here, even though BYU was the underdog per Vegas,
this website's advanced stats page projected byu to win by 11.
The cougars under achieved!
The reality of both games was a stingy, run defense. They did that against two teams both expected to dominate on the ground. WIth a healthy Taysom, or a more experienced Tanner, the offense could have, and should have, been even more productive than they were.
This is of course, of no consequence should BYU lose, but the oddsmakers are betting that 1. Tanner will not improve, and
2. BYU's defensive play was unsustainable against UCLA.
both of which appear to be faulty assumptions if you simply look a bit closer.
All told, I'd very unscientifically guestimate that the odds of BYU winning this game are not as low as 16%, but they might be no better than 48%.
As a starting point, I'll take it. Because each drive BYU's defense stops dead, will increase those odds along the way. :crazy: