UCLA opens as a 14 to 16 1/2 point favorite

This team plays the underdog role well. And many think the Bruins will be our biggest test. Beating them just may be more impressive than the wins against Nebraska and Boise State combined. I consider myself a realist (some would say pessimist) so I have a hard time justifying a reason to expect a win. But if we do somehow manage to pull off another upset, I would have no reason not to expect wins the rest of the way. Provided everyone stays healthy of course.



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I don't anticipate a win, but I do think it will be a lot closer than expected. Don't count our boys out. Remember, UCLA's QB is a freshman as well, and BYU is no UNLV.

I'm not a real gambling man, but although I think our odds of winning are low, I think our adds of beating that spread are very, very high.

If I were a betting man, I'd definitely take these points. Obviously BYU has a flare for the dramatic. I don't know what kind of emotion this team has left after snatching victory from the jaws of defeat two times in two weeks? I think BYU has to be flawless to win this week, but they haven't shown me that they can be flawless. TM is prone to mistakes that have been overshadowed by miracles thus far. Maybe they have 3-4 miracles to lay down in the Rose Bowl? I'm an optimist, but ......



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If they are within 10 at the start of the 4th they have a shot.

I love it!! Just in a time when BYU needs doses of humility and underdog motivation, if not reality testing that while "miracles have not ceased", BYU "cannot live on [miracles] alone."



Anae!! Pease find trey Dye on passes out of the backfield or little slants. We have the need for speed.

And please throw out some trick plays to try and get this win!!

This game is slotted for TV on Fox Sports 1. Any chance that it will be aired on Fox's main over-the-air channel? Does the regular Fox channel have the option to pick up games from the Fox Sports channel?



I cut the cord earlier this year and now have Sling TV but I mostly just have the ESPN channels + over the air.



Thanks.

If Mangum can get through his reads more quickly and hit the open checkdown receivers when feeling pocket pressure instead of chucking up quite so many long balls, and if the run game can continue to play like it did in Q4 of last game, we've got a real chance to steal this one.



I'm not optimistic that we will, and a well-played loss vs a good team like UCLA won't disappoint me, but I won't be surprised if we do win, either.

Wow, if I were a betting man I would take the points too. There is no freaking way this game will be a blow out. BYU's defense is playing well and UCLA is supposed to have a weak Oline and a freshman QB. BYU probably will not win this game but it will not be a blow out. Oh and by the way, the win at Nebraska was a miracle, the win against BSU was not. You go back and watch the game again. TM isn't throwing up prayers that are answered by the receivers, he is throwing the ball to a spot where he knows his receivers are and they are making plays on the ball. The interception on the long ball was due to under throwing Kurtz or he would have another long touchdown on a long ball as well. This kid is special and we need to start giving him credit. Yes, he is still learning. Yes, his reads aren't perfect but he has an uncanny knack for turning trouble into huge plays.

I'm happy.



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frdbtr wrote:
Wow, if I were a betting man I would take the points too. There is no freaking way this game will be a blow out. BYU's defense is playing well and UCLA is supposed to have a weak Oline and a freshman QB.

I haven't watched the Bruins at all this year, but they have 5 returning starters on the OLine. Are they really weak? I know they have a very different QB this year in Rosen vs Hundley.

According to http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/468/p1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; UCLA has given up 1 sack for 1 yard in 2 games (vs 7 for 41 yards by BYU, not sure how many of those are TM vs TH) while Rosen has completed 50 of 77 passes for 4 TDs and 1 INT in the same 2 games (TM is 25 of 39 with 3 TD, 2 INT) http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/252/byu-cougars" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm looking at Rosen's stats against UNLV as my source of hope. Barely breaking 50% completions and 223 yards on 42 attempts isn't great. The level of competition he faces this Saturday will be MUCH higher, so we'll what happens.



BYU 24

UCLA 21



I'll give Tanner this week off and say we kick a field goal to win it.

tmoney35 wrote:
I'll give Tanner this week off and say we kick a field goal to win it.

But only after Mangum completes a 45-yard pass on 4th and 11 with 6 seconds to go to set up the kick, right?

snoscythe wrote:

I'll give Tanner this week off and say we kick a field goal to win it.

But only after Mangum completes a 45-yard pass on 4th and 11 with 6 seconds to go to set up the kick, right?

Well, obviously

UCLA has a stout defense. They have one of the nation's best linebackers in Myles Jack and one of the best interior dlines with Clark and Vanderdoes. That's not great news for our slow-starting running game. They also have two great cornerbacks.



What gives me some hope is that we've already faced two quality defenses, including other top-ranked dlines, linebackers, and secondaries, and - even without the last-minute scores - BYU is putting up enough points to stay in the ball games - averaging 407 yards and 24 points and 1.5 turnovers without last minute scores and yardage.



So, this game will come down to how well our defense steps up against Rosen and Perkins. The defense is averaging 403 total yards with 308 yards passing and 95 rushing, 2.5 turnovers, and 26 points per game. I'm actually expecting another similar performance - so, we're set up for another dogfight and miracle finish opportunity. I like the call for a 27-24 win. But, I actually think we'll see BYU take over the ball with less than 3 minutes to play with that same score...in UCLA's favor. Opportunity for another come-from-behind finish - I'm going with BYU over UCLA 31-27 - but we score in a relatively lackluster fashion with time left on the clock. It's our DEFENSE that earns the save, keeping the Bruins out of the endzone as the clock expires.

Here, I'll guarantee a win by saying that I believe we'll be lucky to lose by no more than 16.5 points. It seems when I say that, it goes the other way.



Really it's just been too fun to last. Could we beat UCLA? Sure we could, but we can't expect to come back every week and it will happen. It's made us giddy beyond measure, but I believe reality arrives back this week.



I had believed before the season that if we went 2-2 over the first 4 games that I could handle that, as long as we were not blown out. We're already at 2 wins and if we can get a third from Michigan, then I will say we have done quite well for ourselves, despite our adversities.

Against UNLV, UCLA threw 3 picks (2 by Neuheisel in garbage time, but still), and settled for 3 field goals. Their longest drive was 65 yards, they punted 4 times (compared to 3 for UNLV) and failed on 4th down once. They only had 10 offensive points at the half. Yards and attempts were basically even in the rushing and passing games.



I have to believe our defense is better than UNLV. If we can continue to mix things up on the front 7 to get pressure like we did against Boise while still stopping the run, I think we blunt their offensive effectiveness pretty well, and keep them in the 21-28 point range.



The real challenge for me is sustaining drives and taking care of the football on offense. UNLV ran the ball okay, but they passed for only 56 yards and were 2-15 on 3rd down. UVA was able to do better in terms of yardage, but was 4-14 on 3rd down, and had a lot of 3-and-outs and settled for a lot of field goals. That tells me they're good at keeping everything in front of them and making you execute all the way down the field, which is not something we have done well yet with Mangum at the helm. Our scores last week were on an 84-yard bomb, a run set up by a 70-yard bomb, a 12-yard drive set up by an INT return, a 4th-and-7 Hail Mary from 35 yards out after a short field. We'll need the running game to continue what they were doing in the 4th quarter, the short-to-intermediate passing game to pick up, and no turnovers to have a shot here.

YNot wrote:
UCLA has a stout defense. They have one of the nation's best linebackers in Myles Jack and one of the best interior dlines with Clark and Vanderdoes. That's not great news for our slow-starting running game. They also have two great cornerbacks.



What gives me some hope is that we've already faced two quality defenses, including other top-ranked dlines, linebackers, and secondaries, and - even without the last-minute scores - BYU is putting up enough points to stay in the ball games - averaging 407 yards and 24 points and 1.5 turnovers without last minute scores and yardage.



So, this game will come down to how well our defense steps up against Rosen and Perkins. The defense is averaging 403 total yards with 308 yards passing and 95 rushing, 2.5 turnovers, and 26 points per game. I'm actually expecting another similar performance - so, we're set up for another dogfight and miracle finish opportunity. I like the call for a 27-24 win. But, I actually think we'll see BYU take over the ball with less than 3 minutes to play with that same score...in UCLA's favor. Opportunity for another come-from-behind finish - I'm going with BYU over UCLA 31-27 - but we score in a relatively lackluster fashion with time left on the clock. It's our DEFENSE that earns the save, keeping the Bruins out of the endzone as the clock expires.

Vanderdoes is out for the year.



http://www.latimes.com/sports/ucla/uclanow/la-sp-ucla-eddie-vanderdoes-injury-20150906-story.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Even with his loss, I think UCLA wins and covers. 35-14 or something like that. I hope I'm wrong.

tmoney35 wrote:
I'm looking at Rosen's stats against UNLV as my source of hope. Barely breaking 50% completions and 223 yards on 42 attempts isn't great. The level of competition he faces this Saturday will be MUCH higher, so we'll what happens.



BYU 24

UCLA 21



I'll give Tanner this week off and say we kick a field goal to win it.

On the first drive against UNLV, Rosen threw for 45 yards and a TD. The rest of the game he was 20 of 38 (.526) for just 178 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT for a passer rating of 86.72. That's just 4.7 yards per attempt and 8.9 yards per completion.



In his first start he averaged 12.5 yards per completion and 10 yards per attempt.



Against Boise, who I'm willing to bet is significantly better an opponent than UNLV, Mangum averaged 11 yards per attempt and 18.2 per completion with a PER north of 160.