R
redneckjediAfter watching how the Hail Mary played out, I realized there might be a much higher percentage option than just chucking it into 8-on-3 odds. What if we ran it?
No, seriously. Hear me out! :)
Let's use Saturday's scenario. We protect with 7, send 3, they drop 8 and rush 3. Mangum's release point was just outside the near hash on the 50, and all the receivers and defenders were at the near sideline of the endzone. Crunching a couple numbers shows Mangum would have 60 yards to reach the far pylon, and the WR-DB group would have about 45 yards to get to the same spot.
Mangum waits until all the receivers reach the near endzone and then takes off, bringing the 4 blockers that aren't laying on a pass rusher. Based on his 4.86 40 time at Rivals, this will take about 7.3 seconds. At the same time, the receivers start blocking, hopefully taking 2-3 guys out of the play because they can't get there in time. They only need to block for a second or two, and then we'll have them release and fan out along the 5 yardline or so. The unblocked DBs will probably take .5-1.0 seconds to react, and also head for the pylon. Based on an average 40 time of 4.5 seconds, this will take about 5 seconds, putting them in position to make the stop about 5 yards before the endzone if they're running full speed.
Here's where it gets fun. Mangum gets to read the blocks - if he can get in with the blocks of the convoy, he does it, we win. Guys running full speed towards the sideline tend to be easy to juke, as well. If he can't, he gets as far as he can, and then throws it to the most open receiver. It's a lateral pass, so they don't even necessarily have to catch it. Just pick up the ball before it's out of bounds and walk into the endzone. If they wind up covered as well, you just go into full rugby mode with the convoy and offload the ball until you get in.
Most likely, the first time this is ever done, all of the DBs go tearing after the QB, leaving the lateral wide open, assuming it is needed. Then, the next time you have to throw a Hail Mary, the defense will have to leave a guy or two in the far side of the endzone, giving the traditional version of the play better odds for success.
Things that make the play more successful:
* A faster QB. This play just cries for Taysom Hill at QB. We could also run it as a super delayed draw to a fast RB, and put the QB in the convoy.
* A release point closer to the opposite pylon. You can do this with a shorter drop, stepping up in the pocket more before running, and/or not rolling as far to the near side.
Things that would make the play fail:
* The O-line fails to block, and your QB is sacked or run down from behind.
* Bad blocking by the convoy or WRs.
* The DBs know what is coming and get to the ball carrier before a lateral pass becomes viable, and/or stay with the receivers.
Thoughts?
No, seriously. Hear me out! :)
Let's use Saturday's scenario. We protect with 7, send 3, they drop 8 and rush 3. Mangum's release point was just outside the near hash on the 50, and all the receivers and defenders were at the near sideline of the endzone. Crunching a couple numbers shows Mangum would have 60 yards to reach the far pylon, and the WR-DB group would have about 45 yards to get to the same spot.
Mangum waits until all the receivers reach the near endzone and then takes off, bringing the 4 blockers that aren't laying on a pass rusher. Based on his 4.86 40 time at Rivals, this will take about 7.3 seconds. At the same time, the receivers start blocking, hopefully taking 2-3 guys out of the play because they can't get there in time. They only need to block for a second or two, and then we'll have them release and fan out along the 5 yardline or so. The unblocked DBs will probably take .5-1.0 seconds to react, and also head for the pylon. Based on an average 40 time of 4.5 seconds, this will take about 5 seconds, putting them in position to make the stop about 5 yards before the endzone if they're running full speed.
Here's where it gets fun. Mangum gets to read the blocks - if he can get in with the blocks of the convoy, he does it, we win. Guys running full speed towards the sideline tend to be easy to juke, as well. If he can't, he gets as far as he can, and then throws it to the most open receiver. It's a lateral pass, so they don't even necessarily have to catch it. Just pick up the ball before it's out of bounds and walk into the endzone. If they wind up covered as well, you just go into full rugby mode with the convoy and offload the ball until you get in.
Most likely, the first time this is ever done, all of the DBs go tearing after the QB, leaving the lateral wide open, assuming it is needed. Then, the next time you have to throw a Hail Mary, the defense will have to leave a guy or two in the far side of the endzone, giving the traditional version of the play better odds for success.
Things that make the play more successful:
* A faster QB. This play just cries for Taysom Hill at QB. We could also run it as a super delayed draw to a fast RB, and put the QB in the convoy.
* A release point closer to the opposite pylon. You can do this with a shorter drop, stepping up in the pocket more before running, and/or not rolling as far to the near side.
Things that would make the play fail:
* The O-line fails to block, and your QB is sacked or run down from behind.
* Bad blocking by the convoy or WRs.
* The DBs know what is coming and get to the ball carrier before a lateral pass becomes viable, and/or stay with the receivers.
Thoughts?