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College Football Teams That Could Be Hurt By Hard Schedules

by scott715 · 4/10/2015

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Guest
Actually BYU had a great deal of national discussion before going on a 4 game losing skid.
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byucougar1
Let's not forget the Taysom for Heisman talk and the thought that if BYU continued wining games they were the most likely non-P5 team to play on New Years day. The injury to Hill and beat down by USU dashed hopes of those dreams. I believe we all collectively went into a funk watching the national attention and much-hyped season go up in flames.



The 2015 schedule by far puts BYU up for the same consideration or at least a better game/opponent than the Miami Bowl should they run the table or even finish with 2 losses. This year will be a challenge but I think we have a very good chance to get some attention should Hill and Williams stay injury free as well as the team and hopefully a much improved D with Bronco's more active involvement.



Of note was Bronco's comment that when he turned the D over to Howell he effectively removed a coach from helping out so that the team was somewhat short-handed. This understanding plus the fact that the D wasn't assignment sound even before the slew of injuries meant that the team was only as successful as the play of the QB and offense in general.
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Cougs_Rule
Thanks to all the posts. You put more politely what I have been hacking about to some of you schedule freaks.

BYU had plenty of attention last year with a moderate schedule. They were rolling on the love. The likelihood of the second four games going undefeated vs the first four games were significantly higher. The pathway was totally there. BYU had NY6 ALLLLLL OVER IT!! And there was even some talk of busting the playoff. And even though that may not have happened and we would have been screaming, like Baylor, like TCU, BYU would have been right there. They didn't need 6-7 P5 games!!!

And now, BYU could be significantly hurt by their tough schedule!! Oh, but that's right we get to play all the big boys to prove that we just aren't that good the whole season long. Wait, we proved that last year too. Moderation, pretenders, moderation.
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YNot
BYU had a clear path to the NY6 last year. Wins over Texas, Houston, and Virginia were enough to get the conversation going. Those were not world beaters, but respectable enough names. Wins over Utah St., UCF, Boise St., and Cal would have likely landed BYU into the NY6 - assuming BYU finished undefeated.



The issue with the 2014-type schedules is that BYU is out of the conversation as soon as they lose. With a schedule that includes Nebraska, Michigan, UCLA, Missouri, and Boise St. (and Utah St., Fresno St., Cincinnati, and ECU), it gives BYU a little cushion.



Ole Miss and Arizona ranked in the top-10 and thus were selected for NY6 bowls in 2014 with THREE losses. Michigan St. and Mississippi St. had TWO losses. With improved schedules, BYU will not need to be perfect. (to reach the CFP, however, is a different story).



The 2014 BY6 bowl set up had the most at large availability of the 3-year cycle. Things will be tighter after the 2015 and 2016 seasons. But, with the better schedules, BYU can afford a loss, and may be even two if the cards fall right, and still end up in the NY6.



The other issue with 2014-type schedules is that attendance goes down. That is not good for BYU in any shape or form. Whether BYU appears to be over-scheduling or not, it's what Cougar Nation has asked for, and TH is delivering.
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byucougar1
One other benefit of the hard/challenging scheduling across the country vs P5 teams is that the recruiting net has become wider and very attractive to recruits for exposure. As a recruit, who wouldn't want the opportunity to regularly be seen on an ESPN affiliate against NE, MO, UCLA, etc. that's big-time football and a chance to see how you stack up against well known teams. As an Independent, not only is BYU now recognized as a P5 team by P10, B12, SEC and ACC, but BYU has shown continued improvement in their recruiting and was able to land some very talented players in 2015:



1. Mid-year transfers: FS Eric Takenaka (JUCO All-American Snow College) - likely starter, RB Squally Canada (Washington State, 4-star recruit in HS), and likely San Jose (Calif.) City College safety Khari Vanderbilt (rumored to attend if grade situation clears up).

2. 17 players of the 21 players recruited rated three or four stars, including four-star prospects Mika Tafua (6-3, 225, OLB), Kieffer Longson (6-7, 295, OL)and Dayan Lake (5-11, 190, DB).



Personally, I like the difficult schedule and believe it will pay off in bringing credibility to the school if BYU is able to garner success.
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Cougs_Rule
I don't see how you can draw this conclusion, that one, overall recruiting has improved; And two, that if it has, it is as a result of an "improved" schedule. Sorry, I'm not buying your argument. I'm happy for the good recruits. But we've seen other "good" recruiting classes like this sprinkled a few four stars.
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Cougs_Rule
YNot wrote:
BYU had a clear path to the NY6 last year. Wins over Texas, Houston, and Virginia were enough to get the conversation going. Those were not world beaters, but respectable enough names. Wins over Utah St., UCF, Boise St., and Cal would have likely landed BYU into the NY6 - assuming BYU finished undefeated.



The issue with the 2014-type schedules is that BYU is out of the conversation as soon as they lose. With a schedule that includes Nebraska, Michigan, UCLA, Missouri, and Boise St. (and Utah St., Fresno St., Cincinnati, and ECU), it gives BYU a little cushion.



Ole Miss and Arizona ranked in the top-10 and thus were selected for NY6 bowls in 2014 with THREE losses. Michigan St. and Mississippi St. had TWO losses. With improved schedules, BYU will not need to be perfect. (to reach the CFP, however, is a different story).



The 2014 BY6 bowl set up had the most at large availability of the 3-year cycle. Things will be tighter after the 2015 and 2016 seasons. But, with the better schedules, BYU can afford a loss, and may be even two if the cards fall right, and still end up in the NY6.



The other issue with 2014-type schedules is that attendance goes down. That is not good for BYU in any shape or form. Whether BYU appears to be over-scheduling or not, it's what Cougar Nation has asked for, and TH is delivering.


If BYU is undefeated or even one loss, attendance is just fine, even vs SavState. Four losses in a row destroyed fan interest. Just WIN!
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byucougar1
If one looks at the geographical composition of the recruits since the major coaching change with addition of Anae, 2J, Atuaia, and our WR coach, we have made inroads into TX, improved our numbers in Cali, WA, and even states outside our normal range: GA, MS, KS, OK. With the hiring of the new strength and conditioning coach (Wintrich sp?) and director of player personnel (Anderson), even greater inroads into the south and shoring up of UT is expected. Exposure in playing at different venues and being on TV has helped as has influence of former players who are now coaching across the country in recommending BYU to their players. While the results on the field have not yet met our expectations, there has been steady improvement in the quality of the players that BYU can now attract. They are now working on 2-3 deep talent so that injuries do not have such a devastating impact after starters go down. A good portion of these hires and recruits coming to the Y is because of the visible attention BYU is garnering through ESPN and game scheduling. As an out-of-stater, I see more games in person and on TV than at any other time since I started watching them in the early 80s. I'll take more difficult schedule any day because it lends credibility to your record and accomplishments when you can play with the best.



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scott715
Perhaps we need to design a program to help former players get high school coaching jobs around the country. That would be very good for the program.



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Cougs_Rule
Pat Doney

Random college fball tweet in April: BYU opens the season at Nebraska, vs. Boise, at UCLA, at Michigan. Who's making the schedule in Provo??

Retweeted by ESPN960Sports



Ya, I'm so off base. :roll:
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Cougs_Rule
Oh, and its a darn good thing that TH did get such a tough schedule because now that NY6 is even more out of reach, you Fantasy Island folks can focus even more on having your fictional NC game caliber schedule. Rotfl.
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Schmoe
As you've just pointed out, we're already getting attention and hype from national media for our schedule. Win some games and good things will happen.
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Fido
Cougs_Rule wrote:
Oh, and its a darn good thing that TH did get such a tough schedule because now that NY6 is even more out of reach, you Fantasy Island folks can focus even more on having your fictional NC game caliber schedule. Rotfl.

Its a chicken/egg argument. NY6 is out of reach with a soft schedule. NY6 is out of reach with losses. NY6 is pretty much out of reach for BYU anyhow since they aren't in a G5 conference looking for the autobid. Getting an at-large NY6 bowl would require a very difficult schedule AND lots of wins. When did it become all about a NY6 bowl? Those cards have been stacked against BYU for a long time.
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Cougs_Rule
Wrong. BYU was easily headed NY6 last year. BYU did not have a soft schedule last year. It just didn't have a killer schedule like 2015. It could have easily beaten BSU To NY6.
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Cougs_Rule
Even so, why would BYU fans not take MWC, assuming solid tv teir rights this time around, better access to NY6 and being nationally relevant over this scheduling nightmare that is just a huge rolling the dice against more significant odds--and now even more significantly higher odds to get NY6 with very little hope of joining the Big 12??

Well, it will be loads of fun this year, won't it? If THill goes down, there is no CStew to bring out of retirement and BYU sucks air at 4-8 or 5-7. Fun. Fun.



Oh wait, I can answer my own question. Why would BYU fans not want the above? "Because we are better than that. We belong in a P5 Conference. We do. We do. We do. We are not lowering our standards to go back to that piss-ant MW conference. We were meant for glory. National glory. Our destiny is for greatness not mediocrity. We will never achieve greatness hanging out with mediocrity. We are better than that. We deserve a chance at the NC."



Dream on Cougar fans. Keep drinking the Koolaid, bc TH is writing checks the coaches and players can't cash. This is not sustainable. So. Enjoy this killer schedule this year and I'll be sure to call you out when You disappear half way thru the season.
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ABYUFAN
Cougs_Rule wrote:
Even so, why would BYU fans not take MWC, assuming solid tv teir rights this time around, better access to NY6 and being nationally relevant over this scheduling nightmare that is just a huge rolling the dice against more significant odds--and now even more significantly higher odds to get NY6 with very little hope of joining the Big 12??


That's a heck of an assumption you've made there. It is not at all likely that the MWC WOULD budge on TV rights, because if they are willing to, they'd have all ready offered it. When you take the absurd assumption out of your argument, the rest of your position falls apart. You want BYU to play in front of less fans for less money, in exchange for having less scheduling flexibility, all for r the chance to play in a NY6 bowl game against a P5 school, that apparently you’re afraid will take out our QB.


Cougs_Rule wrote:

Well, it will be loads of fun this year, won't it? If THill goes down, there is no CStew to bring out of retirement and BYU sucks air at 4-8 or 5-7. Fun. Fun.

I get your argument, you are saying that because Taysom Hill has been taken out twice by a MWC team, and never by a Power five team we need to spend more time playing MWC teams and less time playing power five teams.. makes sense... :roll:
Cougs_Rule wrote:

Oh wait, I can answer my own question. Why would BYU fans not want the above? "Because we are better than that. We belong in a P5 Conference. We do. We do. We do. We are not lowering our standards to go back to that piss-ant MW conference. We were meant for glory. National glory. Our destiny is for greatness not mediocrity. We will never achieve greatness hanging out with mediocrity. We are better than that. We deserve a chance at the NC."

This is silly. The MWC doesn't want us. They are not begging for us to return, they are happy without us, and frankly this has been a break up where both parties are better off being apart. They hated the scheduling issues that we pose with respect to Sunday play. The MWC teams that want to schedule us do, those that don’t want to don’t and we all just get along.

You seem to be arguing that we need to go back to the days of games that no one can watch, just because we’re afraid that one of our players might get injured against a better team. As if there were any facts to justify that concern. Do you have any evidence that incidents of injuries are higher against P5 schools than MWC schools? Absent such a key fact your entire position of being afraid of injuries just falls apart.
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Fido
Just a couple of clarifying points to accurately reflect my pov since I personally don't hold the views of the "Koolaid" you refer to:

- I still think if you weigh all of the +/-, independence is better than being in a G5 conference

- I think it is unreasonable to expect BYU to join a G5 conference--at least until 2019. Why? Two reasons in my opinion. 1) The ESPN tv deal which provides more money and better exposure than the current MWC tv deal which doesn't expire until after 2016 season IIRC, and 2) Buyouts on the games on their independent schedule. They have to pay to cancel the games if they do not join a conference (new or existing) that has at least 4 teams from a current P5 conference (per language in contracts that has been obtained and published). BYU has at least 8 games scheduled each year through 2019. Even if you take out the MWC conference games (most years only have 2-3 but one has 6), you are still talking about paying out lots of money to get out of those games.

- The schedule difficulty is ranked in the top 20. And I'm expecting that to produce some losses--especially early in the season. But that won't dampen my interest in the team.

- Tom Holmoe and Bronco Mendenhall have both indicated that independence will not be sustainable long term and I believe them. However, Bronco confirmed that going to a G5 conference would be worse.


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This is because of the money involved with P5 conferences. They can't match it through independence--but currently exceed what the G5 conferences pull in.

- I don't think the current status quo is going to stay in college football. Too many things are still in flux (total cost scholarships, CFP tweaks, etc). I'd bet there is even more change coming to conference memberships though probably not significantly before the end of the decade as more of the other changes take place and the viability of the grant of rights and current tv contracts play out.



If that is the blue kool aid then I'm drinking. But I'm not expecting undefeated seasons and national championships in 2015 or I'm going to stop being a fan.
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Fido
Interesting tweets from Greg Wrubell about today's interview with Bronco Mendenhall:


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Mars
Cougs_Rule wrote:
Why would BYU fans not take MWC, assuming solid tv teir rights this time around, better access to NY6 and being nationally relevant over this scheduling nightmare that is just a huge rolling the dice against more significant odds--and now even more significantly higher odds to get NY6 with very little hope of joining the Big 12??

Well, it will be loads of fun this year, won't it? If THill goes down, there is no CStew to bring out of retirement and BYU sucks air at 4-8 or 5-7. Fun. Fun.



Oh wait, I can answer my own question. Why would BYU fans not want the above? "Because we are better than that. We belong in a P5 Conference. We do. We do. We do. We are not lowering our standards to go back to that piss-ant MW conference. We were meant for glory. National glory. Our destiny is for greatness not mediocrity. We will never achieve greatness hanging out with mediocrity. We are better than that. We deserve a chance at the NC."



Dream on Cougar fans. Keep drinking the Koolaid, bc TH is writing checks the coaches and players can't cash. This is not sustainable. So. Enjoy this killer schedule this year and I'll be sure to call you out when You disappear half way thru the season.

Maybe you should change your name to Utes_Rule...
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