What are reasonable expectations for next decade of bball?

I'm guessing most of you saw this article summarizing the successes of Dave Rose over the last 10 years: http://byucougars.com/m-basketball/dave-rose-decade-excellence" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



I've added a tab to my recruiting pipeline spreadsheet that adds additional context to compare Rose's 10 years to the previous 5 decades: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsoXzrkkdQYudEVzZTFsOVl4VjMxWXdybklNV1JySnc#gid=6" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



The step change from the prior decade is pretty dramatic, and it's pretty clear across all the major metrics that this has been our best 10 year run.



That said, obviously fans aren't satisfied with advancing in the NCAA tournament only twice, and not winning a single conference tournament. So that's an area we all hope to see improve over the next 10 years.



I've also put together some research that shows how our tourney success compares to others.



In appearances, we're in the top 20 nationally: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsoXzrkkdQYudEVzZTFsOVl4VjMxWXdybklNV1JySnc#gid=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



In wins, we are #47: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsoXzrkkdQYudEVzZTFsOVl4VjMxWXdybklNV1JySnc#gid=9" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Incidentally, #47 is also exactly where we rank in terms of # of weeks in the top 25 over the last 10 years: http://collegepollarchive.com/mbasketball/ap/app_total.cfm?sort=totapp&from=2005&to=2015" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Based on our past, and how we stack up to other programs in terms of resources, recruiting talent available, etc., what do you think is a reasonable expectation for the next decade?



I believe based on the recruiting pipeline that we'll take another step forward. But given we've advanced to the Sweet 16 5 times in 60 years, with only 2 of those in the past 40, it seems unlikely we'll get to a point where we're in the Sweet 16 consistently.



I'd love to see us have a decade like Marquette, Tennesse, or Purdue just put up. Consistently in the tourney, advancing past the 1st round multiple times, and multiple Sweet 16 and/or Elite 8 type runs. I think a fair expectation is that we get to the 2nd weekend once, but my hope is the Lone Peak trio coalesces early and gives us multiple chances to get there.



I'll take an early prediction and say 8 tourney bids (matching this decade), with 10 wins. Biggest run will be getting back to the Elite 8.



What about you guys? 8 bids and 3.5 wins is what we saw in the past 10. What do you think is coming over the next 10?

My next decade expectation is at least 8 NCAA tournament appearances. At least one Sweet 16 run. And given the pace of all-time leading scorers, I expect Jimmer to be #3 in scoring at BYU.

I'll play. I agree with Spiff that it is realistic to expect an NCAA invite 7-8 times, as well as being in the discussion for an invite the other 2-3 times. I can see at least 2 Sweet 16 or better runs and winning at least one tournament game 50% of the time. I think a fair expectation is playing in the conference tournament championship game 7-8 times and winning 50% of those as well. This is based on a best case scenario of healthy teams, continuity in the coaching staff, and a somewhat more than halfhearted emphasis on playing defense.

Good point. At no point in the next 10 years should BYU be outside the conversation of being at least a bubble team. They should always be in the discussion. This likely means no losing records.

Well put, Wisconsin. Love that you created historical context--good thing TH probably saw that as well and rewarded Rose with the five year contract that he deserved!!! Especially since he has the cupboards full for the next four to five.

Have to keep working on the D and have to get and develop quality bigs.

I unfortunately don't anticipate any sweet 16 runs, but I very much hope I'm wrong.

Hawkwing I agree it's difficult to make it, and clearly it's rare for BYU. I also worry that we may not have enough defense to get there, like Jimmer's senior year where Emery and Abouo made up for a lot of mistakes.



But 63 different teams made the Sweet 16 in the last decade, including schools like LaSalle, Florida Gulf Coast, Bradley, etc.



37 different teams made the Elite 8.



So it's certainly feasible to expect we can get one of those, once. That senior year of Mika and Emery, where Haws and Dastrup are juniors, has potential to be amazing.



Final Four talk is obviously another story. Only 22 programs made it in to 40 spots.



When I scan the list, I have conflicting takeaways. On one hand, it's overwhelming how many good programs are out there with more recent and historical success than us. On the other hand, there are so many that have fluked their way into a tourney run (George Mason, Kent State, etc.). Seems like the stars can align for us at least once.

Upon further reflection I've adjusted my prediction to 8 bids in 10 years.



It's just so hard to maintain that level year after year, and who knows what talent will look like post Lone Peak trio.



I look at some of the crazy talent that UNC, UK, Duke, Kansas, UConn, etc. get every year, and even with McDonald's All-Americans many of their seasons end in NIT, 1st or 2nd round ousters, or top out at Sweet 16. So great talent and great coaching alone doesn't guarantee success, with so many other factors involved (health, matchups, etc.).



So it's inevitable we'll have a down year or two, but my hope is we can also have a stretch run of a few years where we play above our equilibrium. I think over time certain programs have carved themselves out to be Tier 1 (elite talent and resources), Tier 2 (solid, strong programs that compete for tourney bids every year), Tier 3 (occasional tourney bid), and Tier 4 (bottom rung programs that never make it).



There are plenty of examples of programs playing above their Tier for a few years (see Harvard last 4, Air Force during their hey day with that top 25 team, Washington State for a few years, Iowa State recently, Wichita State last few years, Davidson with Curry, BYU with Jimmer, etc.).



My hope is that with the Lone Peak group, we have a few years where we play over our heads and find ourselves in the top 25 each year. Over the long haul (call it 20 years), I don't see anything fundamentally changing that will elevate our overall trajectory as a Tier 2 program. But I do think we can have a few special years.

Over time the program should slowly creep higher. As the church grows, our recruiting pools slowly grows, we should have access to better and better talent. Coaches need to be careful with their scholarship offers. You can't offer everyone who wants to come and can contribute. Hold one slot for late opportunities.

Is it fair to say that 3 or fewer conference championships and 0 sweet 16 runs over the next 10 years is a disappointment or failure?

hawkwing wrote:
Is it fair to say that 3 or fewer conference championships and 0 sweet 16 runs over the next 10 years is a disappointment or failure?

Don't care about the conference championships-- now sweet 16 runs those are important.

Qman wrote:

Is it fair to say that 3 or fewer conference championships and 0 sweet 16 runs over the next 10 years is a disappointment or failure?

Don't care about the conference championships-- now sweet 16 runs those are important.

Seems unlikely to me that we'd have a sweet 16 run without a conference championship, though it is possible.

Its a little tough to predict the next decade vs the next five years with Rose.

Rose is a bit like LaVel on offense, or Bronco on defense, in that he takes the recruits that he can naturally get and excel with and run to the strengths.

scott715 wrote:
Over time the program should slowly creep higher. As the church grows, our recruiting pools slowly grows, we should have access to better and better talent. Coaches need to be careful with their scholarship offers. You can't offer everyone who wants to come and can contribute. Hold one slot for late opportunities.

Your post makes sense Scott. We are growing and the pool grows with it. There should be a slot for late opportunities.



I don't know if I expect or hope that we stop going one and done. I haven't looked at stats but what happened this year seems to happen all too often. I do definitely expect 8 ncaa bids with no more than 2 of them play ins that we can't win. In 10 years we ought to at least once get in the final 4. This will improve recruiting of course.

hawkwing wrote:
Is it fair to say that 3 or fewer conference championships and 0 sweet 16 runs over the next 10 years is a disappointment or failure?

I hadn't even thought about WCC championships. I think we should be able to win a few of those too.



So in addition to my previous metrics, let me add I think we should win one or two regular season and tournament championships as well.



I think we should be in the top 3 every year. With Gonzaga in the league - which is an elite team and a better program - I think we should be able to steal a few titles away from them.



I also fully expect the rivalry w/ Gonzaga to continue to grow and that the Bulldogs and Cougars will be the alpha males in the conference.

Here's what I see over the next 10 years:



1 - Regular season WCC championship

2 - WCC Tournament championships

7 - NCAA invitations, 4 of which are play-in games

2 - Play in wins / 2 losses

4 - Round of 64 losses

1 - Round of 32 loss

hawkwing wrote:
I unfortunately don't anticipate any sweet 16 runs, but I very much hope I'm wrong.

DISSENTER.. DISSENTER

49erCoug wrote:

I unfortunately don't anticipate any sweet 16 runs, but I very much hope I'm wrong.

DISSENTER.. DISSENTER

Your post has been noted.

hawkwing wrote:

hawkwing wrote:
I unfortunately don't anticipate any sweet 16 runs, but I very much hope I'm wrong.

DISSENTER.. DISSENTER

Your post has been noted.

Haw haw. You listened to conference too!