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the CONTROVERSIAL post

by Mars · 1/9/2015

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M
Mars


There are 252 Division 1 football programs; 128 compete at the I-A (FBS) level.

There are 351 Division 1 men's basketball programs.



WIN PERCENTAGE

BYU Football: Bronco Mendenhall is 90-39 over 10 seasons; A 70% win percentage.

BYU Men's Basketball: Dave Rose is 232-78 over 9 completed seasons; A 75% win percentage.



COMPUTER RATING

Football: Average Sagarin Rating of #33 (Top 14% in a season out of 252 teams), SOS 65 (Top 26%).

Basketball: Average RPI (*5 seasons of info available from realtimerpi) of #33 (Top 10% in a season out of 351 teams), SOS 71 (Top 21%).



BEST SEASON

Football: 2006: 11-2 (85% win percentage), Sagarin #13 (Top 6%), SOS 74 (Top 30%); Las Vegas Bowl win over Oregon (Top 27% Nationally).

Basketball: 2010-2011: 32-5 (86% win percentage), RPI #5 (Top 2%), SOS 21 (Top 6%); 2-1 in the NCAA Tournament (exit in the round of the Sweet Sixteen, Top 5% Nationally).



WORST SEASON

Football: 2005: 6-6 (50% win percentage), Sagarin #55 (Top 22%), SOS 65 (Top 26%). Bowl loss (Top 54% Nationally).

Basketball: 2012-2013: 24-12 (67% win percentage), RPI #63 (Top 18%), SOS 94 (Top 27%). NIT (Top 29% Nationally).



BEST WIN

Football: 2012: 6-3 Win in Provo over RPI #14 (Top 6%) Utah State (11-2). BYU finished 8-5 with an RPI of #50 and beat SDSU in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Basketball: 2010-2011: 80-67 Win at RPI #3 (Top 1%) San Diego State (30-2).



WORST LOSS

Football: 2013: 16-19 Loss at RPI #110 (Bottom 57%) Virginia (2-10). BYU finished 8-5 with an RPI of #47 and lost to Washington in their bowl game.

Basketball: 2013-2014: 76-87 Loss at RPI #180 (Bottom 49%) Loyola Marymount (12-19). BYU finished 22-12 with an RPI of #30 and went 0-1 in the NCAA Tournament this season after a loss to Oregon.



POST-SEASON

Football: 10/10 (100%) bowl games/seasons (Top 54% each season). 6-4 Record in bowl games (60%).

Basketball: 9/9 (100%) post-season tournaments/seasons (Top 29% each season); 7/9 (78%) NCAA Tournaments (Top 20% each season). 7-9 Record Overall (44%): 4-7 in the NCAA Tournament (36%); 3-2 in the NIT (60%).



RIVALRY RESULTS

Football: 3-6 vs. Utah (33%); 6-2 vs. Utah State (75%). Utah: 75-39 record; Average win percentage: 66%. Utah State: 51-63 record; Average win percentage: 45%.

Basketball: 12-5 vs. Utah (71%); 6-3 vs. Utah State (67%). Utah: 136-149 record; Average win percentage: 48%. Utah State: 183-78 record; Average win percentage: 70%.





MISCELLANEOUS- RECRUITING (Apples to Oranges)

Football: Average Scout/Rivals ranking of #57 (Top 23%).

Basketball: Average ESPN/Scout/Rivals recruit rating of 2.30 stars.

4/32 recruits ranked 4-stars (12.5%).
G
Guest
Interesting stats.



One thing I was curious about is bad losses and very bad losses. It does seem like Rose has a few bad and very bad losses every year.
S
Schmoe
Yep, there are a lot of really bad, bottom-dwelling basketball teams out there.
G
Gunk
I think these numbers pretty much speak for themselves.



One additional thing to keep in mind is there are 39 bowls plus the playoffs for football. That means 82 football teams make the post season. While FCS schools can be selected to play in a bowl game they rarely if ever are. The post season pool in football consists of 128 FBS teams. With 82 of them going to a bowl, that means 64% make it to the post season.



Some like to equate making a bowl game is equal to basketball going to the NCAA tournament. It's no where close. Less than 20% of D1 hoops teams make the NCAA tournament. The qualifications to get into the tournament are much more competitive. To make a bowl game, all BYU has to do is play .500 football. To have a shot at the NCAA tournament, Rose has to have the team playing .700 ball. BYU is often seeded low, playing teams that are ranked higher than them in the NCAA tournament. Wins are harder to come by. In football, the model is to put equally weighted teams on the field in the post season. Post season wins in football are easier to come by.



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C
Cougs_Rule
Advantage Rose, slightly. THe only major category listed above where Bronco leads, is in the Post Season, and that is, as Gunk, explains, apples to oranges. I give it a wash. Broncos win record is good, though trending--YES TRENDING--downward the past two years.



THen all the INTANGIBLES that get weighed in.

-Spiritual/Honor Code: EQUALLY good.

-Relations with fans, donors, media*, Social Media: ADVANTAGE ROSE

Bronco has lost a chunk of ground i hope he can make up.

*Even though most all of us have a general dislike or disdain for most media, they can shape fan opinion. so, they matter.
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M
Mars
hawkwing wrote:
Interesting stats.



One thing I was curious about is bad losses and very bad losses. It does seem like Rose has a few bad and very bad losses every year.

Good point.



I spent a little over 2 hours on this last night (Instead of working on my church calling. Haha). But BEST WIN and WORST LOSS were categories that I considered looking up to add. This list is nowhere near all-inclusive.



When it comes to worst losses, Dave Rose's first game and last game are both near the top of that list.



P.S. This 2014 football season was actually Bronco's worst according to Sagarin as well, even though he won 8 games instead of just 6.
M
Mars


WORST LOSS

Football: 2013: 16-19 Loss at RPI #110 (Bottom 57%) Virginia (2-10). BYU finished 8-5 with an RPI of #47 and lost to Washington in their bowl game.

Basketball: 2013-2014: 76-87 Loss at RPI #180 (Bottom 49%) Loyola Marymount (12-19). BYU finished 22-12 with an RPI of #30 and went 0-1 in the NCAA Tournament this season after a loss to Oregon.



This last loss was worse at the time, at home to RPI #253 Pepperdine. We will see what their RPI is at the end of the season.



BEST WIN

Football: 2012: 6-3 Win in Provo over RPI #14 (Top 6%) Utah State (11-2). BYU finished 8-5 with an RPI of #50 and beat SDSU in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Basketball: 2010-2011: 80-67 Win at RPI #3 (Top 1%) San Diego State (30-2).



Sagarin is more reliable, but would take longer to look up.
S
Stirfry
Mars wrote:
Interesting stats.



One thing I was curious about is bad losses and very bad losses. It does seem like Rose has a few bad and very bad losses every year.

Good point.



I spent a little over 2 hours on this last night (Instead of working on my church calling. Haha). .


Isn't this a church calling?
T
TulaneVandyRiceCoug
Yes!



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M
Mars


I tried to present these stats without directing them one way or the other for who is better and who is worse. In that regard, I deleted all of my opinions out of the original post, with the attempt to leave only the numbers behind.



That being said, I actually think these numbers show that both coaches and programs have done very well for themselves. BYU is 19/19 in football and basketball for making the postseason under Tom Holmoe's hires. That is absolutely PHENOMENAL. At Utah, for the counter-example, both football and basketball have missed the post-season recently.
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Cougs_Rule
It is overall very solid. Not spectacular, except forJimmers year (less Davies-romp) and almost spectacular this year if THill hadn't gone done and Bronco hadn't abandoned the D.

But, overall , solid. And I hope both coaches stay for another five years.
S
Schmoe
You know, it's funny, basketball fans like to quote percentages because all the bottom-dwelling, awful, crap teams inflate the perception of how well a coach at a competitive school is doing. But there have been the same number of different schools to win a championship in basketball over the past ten years as there have in football (7). I bet you'd notice the same similarity with how many different teams have finished ranked over the past ten years.



Simply because there are a lot more bad teams playing doesn't indicate that one coach is doing better than another.
B
Brayden Green
It's a lot easier to lose in basketball, because individual effort means so much with only 10 players on a small "field". Football upsets are more rare, because it is more of an overall team game, where in basketball any given night any team has the chance to get one player hot and win.



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S
Schmoe
I love it when people downvote a post without any kind of logical response to what it says. How many more teams are playing at a high level in basketball than in football? There certainly are more when you consider teams like Marquette, Gonzaga, Xavier, Georgetown, etc. But are there three times more? Certainly not.



To simply compare coaches from two completely different sports based on raw winning % and % vs. the field is to compare apples and radiators.
C
Cougs_Rule
Schmoe wrote:
I love it when people downvote a post without any kind of logical response to what it says. How many more teams are playing at a high level in basketball than in football? There certainly are more when you consider teams like Marquette, Gonzaga, Xavier, Georgetown, etc. But are there three times more? Certainly not.



To simply compare coaches from two completely different sports based on raw winning % and % vs. the field is to compare apples and radiators.


I love it when posters who get a down vote but are mad about it, expect someone else to look up stats to support their own argument, and don't mind calling the other poster's post illogical, simply because they don't agree or don't have stats. :lol: :whistle:
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Cougs_Rule
As for "apples and radiators" , let's break that down, shall we? Let's borrow a biological classification system.



Kingdom: Rose-God's on Earth // Bronco-- God's on Earth

Phylum: Rose-Collegiate Sports Coach // Bronco- Collegiate Sports Coach

Class: Rose-Division I // Bronco-Division I

Order: Rose-Major sport // Bronco- Major Sport

Family: Rose-BYU // Bronco-BYU

Genus: Rose-Men's Sports // Bronco- Men's Sports

Species: Rose- Basketball // Bronco- Football



Yep, comparing them is like comparing an organic, naturally created, biodegradable, edible food source to an inorganic, non-biodegradable, man-made, mechanical, cooling device. Talk about logical fallacies.
S
Schmoe
Cougs_Rule wrote:
I love it when people downvote a post without any kind of logical response to what it says. How many more teams are playing at a high level in basketball than in football? There certainly are more when you consider teams like Marquette, Gonzaga, Xavier, Georgetown, etc. But are there three times more? Certainly not.



To simply compare coaches from two completely different sports based on raw winning % and % vs. the field is to compare apples and radiators.


I love it when posters who get a down vote but are mad about it, expect someone else to look up stats to support their own argument, and don't mind calling the other poster's post illogical, simply because they don't agree or don't have stats. :lol: :whistle:


WTF are you even talking about?



Fun fact: over the past 20 years, there have been 13 different teams to win the NCAA championship in basketball, in football, there have also been 13.



Over the past 30 years, there have 18 different teams to win the NCAA championship in basketball, in football, there have also been 18.



Over the past 40 years, there have been 20 different teams to win the NCAA championship in basketball, in football, there have been 21.



Also, the rate of change for basketball's top-25 over the past three seasons was 12.5 teams, football's was 13 teams.



You'd think there'd be a lot more variety in basketball, like 3x as much, with all their extra teams and all...
M
Mars
Schmoe wrote:
How many more teams are playing at a high level in basketball than in football? There certainly are more when you consider teams like Marquette, Gonzaga, Xavier, Georgetown, etc. But are there three times more? Certainly not.

I used 252 football teams vs. 351 basketball teams. That's 39% more teams, not 200% more.
S
Schmoe
Mars wrote:
How many more teams are playing at a high level in basketball than in football? There certainly are more when you consider teams like Marquette, Gonzaga, Xavier, Georgetown, etc. But are there three times more? Certainly not.

I used 252 football teams vs. 351 basketball teams. That's 39% more teams, not 200% more.


That's right. The post was not meant to be directed at any one poster (just, in general, we see the 351 vs 128 often).



Anyway, when looking at the numbers, it doesn't seem that the difference in the overall number of teams means that there's a difference in competitive teams.
B
BroncoBot
Mars wrote:
Interesting stats.



One thing I was curious about is bad losses and very bad losses. It does seem like Rose has a few bad and very bad losses every year.

Good point.



I spent a little over 2 hours on this last night (Instead of working on my church calling. Haha). But BEST WIN and WORST LOSS were categories that I considered looking up to add. This list is nowhere near all-inclusive.



When it comes to worst losses, Dave Rose's first game and last game are both near the top of that list.



P.S. This 2014 football season was actually Bronco's worst according to Sagarin as well, even though he won 8 games instead of just 6.

I agree with this year being the worst football year so far under Bronco, which is hard to stomach considering 2005.
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