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Which direction is Dave Rose trending?

by Mars · 1/6/2015

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M
Mars


2015 recruiting, ESPN: 1 3-star recruit, Grade 75, Position Rank #58. Scout: 1 4-star recruit, National Rank #19. Rivals: 1 3-star recruit.

2014-2015, 13-4 (3-1, WCC #9), RPI 34, SOS 23. 3 Top 100 Wins, 1 Top 50 Win, 1 sub-100 loss. W vs USU, L vs Utah.

2014 recruiting, ESPN: 2 4-star recruits/2 3-star recruits/1 2-star recruit, Grades 86/80/75/70/67, Position Rank #11/#11/#42/#53/#92. Scout: 1 4-star recruit/3 3-star recruits/1 0-star recruit, National Rank #11/#17. Rivals: 1 4-star recruit/3 3-star recruits/1 0-star recruit.



2013-2014, 23-12 (13-5, WCC #9), RPI 30, SOS 24. 8 Top 100 Wins, 3 Top 50 Wins, 1 Top 25 Win, 4 sub-100 losses. W vs USU, L vs Utah. NCAA Tourny, 0-1.

2013 recruiting, ESPN: 2 4-star recruits/3 3-star recruits/1 0-star recruit, Grades 89/88/76/72/70, Position Rank #3/#9/#43/#56/#66. Scout: 2 4-star recruits/2 3-star recruits/1 2-star recruit, National Rank #4/#19. Rivals: 2 4-star recruits/3 3-star recruits/1 0-star recruit.

2012-2013, 24-12 (10-6, WCC #10), RPI 63, SOS 94. 4 Top 100 Wins, 3 sub-100 losses. W vs Utah, W vs USU. NIT, 3-1.

2012 recruiting, ESPN: 1 2-star recruit/5 0-star recruits, Grade 83/JC/JC/LQ, Position Rank #54. Scout: 1 2-star recruit/1 0-star recruit. Rivals: 5 0-star recruits, JC/JC.

2011-2012, 26-9 (12-4, WCC #11), RPI 46, SOS 102. 5 Top 100 Wins, 1 Top 50 Win, 1 Top 25 Win, 2 sub-100 losses. L vs USU, W vs Utah. NCAA Tourny, 1-1.

2011 recruiting, ESPN: 1 3-star recruit/3 2-star recruits/1 0-star recruit, Grades 91/88/TR, Position Rank #37/#43. Scout: 1 3-star recruit/3 0-star recruits. Rivals: 1 4-star recruit.



2010-2011, 32-5 (14-2, MWC #4), RPI 5, SOS 21. 12 Top 100 Wins, 9 Top 50 Wins, 6 Top 25 Wins, 0 sub-100 losses. W vs USU, W/W vs Utah. NCAA Tourny, 2-1.

2010 recruiting, ESPN: 2 2-star recruits/1 0-star recruit, Grades 88/88/JC, Position Rank #75/#75. Scout: 2 3-star recruits, National Rank #27/46. Rivals: 2 3-star recruits/1 0-star recruit, JC.

2009-2010, 30-6 (13-3, MWC #6), RPI 23, SOS 116. 8 Top 100 Wins, 4 Top 50 Wins, 2 Top 25 Wins, 0 sub-100 losses. L vs USU, W/W vs Utah. NCAA Tourny, 1-1.

2009 recruiting, ESPN: 3 recruits, Grades 88/75/JC, Position Rank #51/#232. Scout: 2 3-star recruits, National Rank #38/#41. Rivals: 2 3-star recruits/2 2-star recruits.



2008-2009, 25-8 (12-4, MWC). W vs USU, L/W vs Utah. NCAA Tourny, 0-1.

2008 recruiting, ESPN: 2 recruits. Scout: 1 2-star recruit. Rivals: 1 2-star recruit/1 0-star recruit.

2007-2008, 27-8 (14-2, MWC). W/W vs Utah. NCAA Tourny, 0-1.

2007 recruiting, ESPN: 5 recruits, Grades 81/79/75/73, Position Rank #34/#71/#97/#127. Scout: 2 3-star recruits/2 2-star recruits/1 0-star recruit, JC/JC. Rivals: 2 3-star recruits/4 0-star recruits, JC/JC.

2006-2007, 25-9 (13-3, MWC). W vs USU, W/W vs Utah. NCAA Tourny, 0-1.

2006 recruiting, Scout: 2 3-star recruits. Rivals: 4 0-star recruits, JC.

2005-2006, 20-9 (12-4, MWC). L vs USU, L/W/L vs Utah. NIT, 0-1.

2005 recruiting, Scout: 2 3-star recruits/1 2-star recruit/1 0-star recruit, JC/JC. Rivals: 2 0-star recruits, JC.



Average Record (9 seasons): 25.8-8.7 (12.6-3.7). Totals: 6-3 vs USU, 12-5 vs Utah.

Average MWC Record (6 seasons): 26.5-7.5 (13.0-3.0). Totals: 4-2 vs USU, 11-3 vs Utah.

Average WCC Record (3 seasons): 24.3-11.0 (11.7-5.0). Totals: 2-1 vs USU, 1-2 vs Utah.



*Average RPI Stats (*5 seasons): RPI 33.4, SOS 71.4. Totals: 37 Top 100 Wins, 17 Top 50 Wins, 10 Top 25 Wins, 9 sub-100 losses.

*Average MWC RPI Stats (*2 seasons): RPI 14.0, SOS 68.5. Totals: 20 Top 100 Wins, 13 Top 50 Wins, 8 Top 25 Wins, 0 sub-100 losses.

Average WCC RPI Stats (3 seasons): RPI 46.3, SOS 73.3. Totals: 17 Top 100 Wins, 4 Top 50 Wins, 2 Top 25 Wins, 9 sub-100 losses.



Average Recruiting (11 classes), ESPN (*9 classes): 26 recruits, 21 ranked-2.43 stars, 22 Graded-79.9, 22 Position Ranks-#60.9. Scout: 33 recruits-2.30 stars, 9 National Ranks-#24.7. Rivals: 37 recruits, 28 ranked-2.18 stars.

Average MWC Recruiting (6 classes), ESPN (*4 classes): 3 recruits, 2 ranked-2.0 stars, 8 Graded-80.9, 8 Position Ranks-#95.3. Scout: 16 recruits-2.38 stars, 4 National Ranks-#38.0. Rivals: 18 recruits, 12 ranked-2.00 stars.

Average WCC Recruiting (5 classes), ESPN: 23 recruits, 19 ranked-2.47 stars, 14 Graded-79.3, 14 Position Ranks-#41.3. Scout: 17 recruits-2.24 stars, 5 National Ranks-#14.0. Rivals: 19 recruits, 16 ranked-2.31 stars.



4-star recruits-

0 in Dave Rose's first 6 recruiting classes (all MWC).

4 (ESPN/Scout/Rivals) in his last 5 classes (all WCC).



Over 9 seasons, BYU has played in 7 NCAA Tournaments, going 4-7. The Cougars have also played in 2 NITs, going 3-2.



BYU won 0 NCAA Tourny games (and 0 NIT games) in Rose's first 4 years.

BYU won 4 NCAA Tourny games in years 5-7.

BYU won 0 NCAA Tourny games (and 3 NIT games) the last 2 seasons (years 8-9).



In other words, BYU went 0-1 in the NIT and 0-3 in the NCAA Tourny over Dave Rose's first 4 seasons, and BYU has since gone 4-4 in the NCAA Tourny and 3-1 in the NIT over his last 5 seasons.
G
Guest
So trending even? Slight down?
W
Wolverine
hawkwing wrote:
So trending even? Slight down?

After the Jimmer years there was a trend downward, which I think was to be expected. Things leveled off for a couple of years and I think the trend line is moving slightly upward and will continue to do so in the future. The nice thing about both Bronco and Rose is that the trend line has yet to go off the cliff and out of sight (though some fans feel like it has).
N
nuk13
I think the trend line will go up if Nielson, Kafusi and other bigs improve. Haws will be missed but if the bigs pick up there are enough scoring guards (Toolson) to keep the points coming. KC will continue he excellence and probably improve on it.
S
Schmoe
It dropped pretty significantly the two years after Jimmer, but had a small uptick last year. If this year's RPI stays around where it is now, it looks like it will be a plateau.
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G
Gunk
While both Rose and Bronco have to deal with unique recruiting requirements, I think Rose is a bit more affected by the small pool. For the most part, if there isn't a dominant 6' 10" LDS big that wants to go to BYU our post game will be affected accordingly. There aren't a lot of 6'10" guys in general, let alone LDS ones. No big, and the performance of the team goes way down.



Credit Rose for being able to come up with a scheme that's gets the most out of the contingency of 6' 5" LDS shooters he has at his disposal.



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C
Cougs_Rule
Schmoe wrote:
It dropped pretty significantly the two years after Jimmer, but had a small uptick last year. If this year's RPI stays around where it is now, it looks like it will be a plateau.


Regresion to the mean. it happens. BYU is not going to make the sweet 16 every year. nor have a NPOY but once in a generation, or two in a century. ;-)
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