(these are approximates meant to paint a picture, don't flame me for my loose statistics.. I don't have the time to be precise)
1 in 32 odds of living in a household with a net worth of $1 million or more, excluding primary residence (though being a millionaire isn't what it used to be)
1 in 300 with a net worth of $5 million or more
1 in 350 = amount of doctors per population in US
1 in 240 = amount of licensed lawyers per population in US
in 2008 250,000 people graduated with an MBA in the US = 1 in 1200 of the entire population of the united states received their MBA just in 2008
NFL 32 teams = 53 man roster + practice squad and IR = 1850 players approx max
1 in 171,000 odds of being an NFL player on a regular season roster at any given time WHICH IS EVEN BETTER CONSIDERING IT DRAWS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY FROM US BORN ATHLETES
NBA 30 teams 13-15 roster spots (13 minimum allowed) = 450 players max
WORLD GAME... DRAWS FROM ... THE WORLD
Currently there are approximately 100 NON US BORN PLAYERS IN THE NBA
which means there are about 350 spots filled by US born players
or
1 in 900,000 people in the US play in the NBAHERE'S WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING FOR OUR BIGS
http://www.forbes.com/sites/dandiamond/2013/06/27/nba-draft-is-being-7-feet-tall-the-fastest-way-to-get-rich-in-america/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
17% of 7 footers in the US between 20-40 will have played in the NBA according to Forbes. Kaufusi, Mika, Nielsen, Austin, Dastrup have a substantially better shot at at least sitting the pine in the league simply due to height
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_NBA_players" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
essentially the NBA is a 1 in a million job, 5 times better chance to play in the NFL, 28,000 times better chance to be a millionaire.
The NBA is a world game... countries like the Philippines (with a population of 100,000,000 love the game, yet have no current players in the NBA) China, Japan, India, Mexico, South America and Europe are all improving facilities, have improved access to watching professional basketball, and are embracing this game. (I remember watching month old highlights of NBA games in Bulgaria and thinking that was the best thing EVER.. and now with the internet everyone is one click away from what they want to see... and none of those named countries above could give two craps about the NFL). There are no plans to expand the NBA, yet the game is expanding world-wide = barriers to entry are increasing.
So here it is... In spite of the fact that he'll finish as a top 10 player in BYU history (between Durrant, Ainge, Fredette, Smith, Araujo, Hansen, Bigelow, Cummard, Larson, Roberts, Cosic) Tyler Haws is unlikely to play in the NBA, less likely to ever be a starter.
Here's the good news for great college basketball players, you can play overseas.... there is no NFL in France for Taysom Hill.. There is a league dying to get their hands on Tyler Haws
1.
He's a tweener...
not tall enough to be a 3 in the NBA (average SF height is 6'7.5" Gordan Hayward is 6'8") and that probably excludes PF that really don't play PF like Dirk and not quick enough to be a 2 in the NBA (average 2 guard height is 6'6")
2.
He can't break anyone down off the dribble (Jimmer can do this)
3.
He can't stay in front of average quick players in college ... the NBA is a different world (Jimmer can't do this and that's why he sits the pine)
4.
He doesn't have NBA 3 point range (Jimmer did from day 1)
5.
He's white (if you don't think this plays into NBA decision making you're as daft as can be)
6. He's an
average passer in college and he really isn't great at creating for others...
There is nothing wrong with being a great college player and not being an NBA player..
The ultimate tweener Travis Hansen really actually had a choice because he could defend, he had NBA 3 pt range, he could break a guy down on the dribble.. yet he chose to play overseas because he could separate himself and make a large paycheck..
Cummard, Bigelow, Mike Hall (also tweener 2,3s) never sniffed the NBA but all have received overseas paychecks.. I would not be surprised if Travis made over 15 million pretax in his professional career...
The next tweener is Kyle Collinsworth and simply because he can't shoot.
1. He's taller than Tyler and more gifted athletically
2. He can break down people off the dribble
3. He can stay in front of athletic guards
4. ****HE CAN'T SHOOT*** HE WILL NOT DEVELOP AN NBA WORTHY J****
probably ends right there
5. He's white
6. He's a great passer
It really only takes one of these to seal the deal on little to no NBA prospects at the 2 guard
KC will also make an insanely good living overseas (if he stays healthy) but I honestly don't believe he can take his absolute garbage of a shooting stroke and make it servicable enough to stick in the league..
So I'll play NBA recruiter right now
Chase Fischer
doesn't make the cut as a tweener but could play in europe on the right team.. his below average height and below average athleticism disqualifies him for consideration for NBA 2 guard... he's a very good college player though... and a much more efficient player than Matt Carlino (since we''l inevitably compare the loss and gain of productivity from one transfer out to one in). Chase is an underrated ball handler though, good passer, subpar defender... desperately needs to get stronger and more explosive as a college player, especially when he takes over some of the reigns as a senior next year.. he is a poor mans Jimmer, without the handles and crossover of Jimmer. He has Jimmer range though. (50/50 european player.. needs to get stronger and more explosive)
Skyler Halford is limited in about every possible way but heart.. too undersized to consider as a 2 beyond college... (doesn't even belong in the discussion, except that he's a senior and he is improved) no chance in Europe, undersized 2 that will play a lot of backup point for us.. he is stronger this year and he's a very aggressive player off the bench.. high IQ, below average handles, below average hands, below average passer, below average vision, average defender, above average shooter... going to be one hell of a church ball ringer (no chance at europe)
Anson Winder
could play overseas, above average defender, average shooter, slightly above average athleticism, average handles, average passer, great hands, decent size for a team that doesn't want a traditional point or shooting guard.. has improved his body, still needs more work to play overseas, very underrated decision maker, doesn't lose his cool, better IQ than he gets credit for... (zero chance at the NBA)
Frank Bartley.... elite athlete, below average shooter, sneaky hoops IQ and great court vision, solid defender, great hands, good passer but average decision maker... you can't play for Dave Rose at the 2-3 if you turn the ball over but when Frank is good, he's really good and probably should be playing more... appears to have the tools and interest in bring the ball up the court and has shown flashes of being worthy to call himself a PG...
has a ways to go as a basketball player to determine if he could play in europe... but it would have to be as a pg, he doesn't shoot well enough as a 2 and has below average height for european shooting guard
(no chance at the NBA.. doesn't have a position)
Jamal Aytes -
has no professional position.. he's done when college is done, but has a chance to be a poor mans Elias Harris.. hard to break him down as a player, I haven't seen anything but AAU tape from 2 years ago... strong, good hands, great feet, solid out to 15 feet... at best is a double/double guy 10/10 at worst can't get off the bench because of Kaufusi, Davis, Neilsen, Worthington, then eventually Hartsock, Dastrup, Mika
Worthington... terrible shooter, average hands, runs the court very well, mediocre hoops IQ, is improving, below average explosiveness, slightly above average strength, below average feet, needs to drop body fat %... getting better, but just
doesn't have a place in europe (euro bigs are skilled and can shoot the ball)Nielsen... long, decent shooter, below average hands, good motor, average hoops IQ, needs 15 lbs of muscle, needs explosiveness... better freshman than Austin... hard to project right now... definitely could play in europe... higher ceiling than Worthington or Austin..
could be a Justin Hamilton type and get some NBA money... needs a lot of work on his body ... weight room weight room weight room...
still plenty of time to improveKaufusi ... freaky athlete, very long, poor hoops IQ, doesn't know how to play with his arms above his shoulders, liability on the court right now due to turnovers and fouls... good foul protection, sets very good screens... terrible shooter... however ceiling is high if he will put in the work.. size, length and athleticism.. and Kaufusi's fill out... could be a dominant junior and senior if he puts in a ton of work...
has NBA potential strictly because of his body, motor and athleticism..Kyle Davis is going to be a very good college 4 and has
no chance with the NBA and would have to develop an outside shot to have an outside shot at Europe. Just too small for those 7 foot 4s out there.
THE MODEL 2 WILL ALWAYS BE MJ AND KOBE... BODY TYPES ARE AS FOLLOWS
IN THEIR PRIMES 6'6" 195-200 SUB 5 PERCENT BODY FAT (these are the greatest 2 guards in NBA history but also the prototype in the NBA now..)
Other future tweeners... that are younger and have not yet filled out their bodies
Jake Toolson 6'5" 220 ... a tad shorter than Tyler, needs to lose 15 pounds (he's too short to play the 3 in the league and too slow to play the 2 unless he changes his body)... also has to find a dribble drive... but is a better passer (already), has more range than a freshman tyler, but not a better shooter overall, a better athlete and stronger than Tyler as a freshman (Jake averaged 13 or so rebounds a game last year at a top end high school)... however almost no one has a better work ethic than Tyler so can Jake improve enough to be considered an NBA caliber 2 when he's done at BYU?
Probably not... however may have a higher ceiling than Tyler by the time he's a senior... He absolutely has to improve his nutrition, lose 15 pounds, and work on his handles... he is not a 3 and we don't want him to be, has great hands, great decision making, solid peripheral vision... if he works on his
handles, footwork, and drops 15 pounds, you have the next all american at BYU by the time he's a senior The problem with Jake this year is we can't redshirt him (he's not on scholarship) and he's playing behind Fischer, KC, and Tyler (the strength of our team and bulk of our scoring)...
Dalton Nixon... perfect 3 height, good footwork, great hands, good athlete but not NBA caliber athleticism, can shoot it, does not have handles, average to below average passer, below average defender of the perimeter, average court vision, is pretty stiff for a 3... He will get stronger, but more than strength he needs to get more explosive. High hoops IQ, average skill... Creighton and USU went after him hard and Creightons coach told him they were looking for a Doug McDermott clone (Doug is 6'8" 225)(Dalton 6'7" 220) ... the biggest difference is skill.. mcdermott has world class skill in a below average NBA 3s body and a super undersized 4s body... he's currently average 4 ppg with the Bulls... and could be a bit of a bust) McD has a below average NBA body and
Dalton has less to work with... at the 3.. Dalton needs a dribble drive, better court awareness, upper body strength, and explosiveness.. he has some tools to start with though and as we're seeing, he's not a major liability out there in a pinch.
Nate Austin ... decent height for a 4, below average strength, poor footwork, zero athleticism, below average decision making, mediocre hands but long arms, can run the floor fairly well, but cannot finish and does not have the skill and athleticism to take 1 dribble and dunk which is expected of 4s and 5s in the league... 6'11" can't be coached though.. he might get a shot in summer league and then get cut.. (if you think I'm crazy, I told you all that Brandon Davies would make an NBA roster and got flamed for it for a while)...
will likely never make an NBA roster... could make an overseas living if he wants to put in the work
